447
FXAK69 PAFG 050002
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
402 PM AKDT Mon May 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system pushing across Northern Alaska beginning this
afternoon will bring areas of rain and snow much of the Interior.
Gusty south winds will be possible in the Alaska Range through
Tuesday as this front pushes through. In the Central and Eastern
Brooks Range and on the North Slope, snow could be heavy in some
areas. On the eastern Arctic Coast, blowing snow will be possible
Tuesday into Thursday with gusty winds which will turn from
easterly to westerly. Colder conditions are expected across the
Interior/West Coast midweek, with isolated thunderstorms in the
Eastern Interior Thursday afternoon.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Gusty southerly winds continue through the Alaska Range passes
  at 30 to 40 mph and could strengthen to near 50 mph overnight
  Monday into Tuesday morning.

- Widespread rain/snow showers return to the Central/Eastern
  Interior beginning this afternoon/evening and continue through
  most of the day Wednesday. Rain will be favored during the day
  with snow favored overnight and at higher elevations. Minimal
  snowfall accumulations are expected within the Interior Valleys,
  with some accumulations expected through the Alaska Range.

- Daytime high temperatures will cool into the mid/upper 40s by
  Wednesday. Similarly, low temperatures will also cool into the
  low 30s starting Tuesday night, allowing for some patchy areas
  of frost to develop in the early morning hours.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Widespread rain/snow showers begin Monday afternoon/evening
  across the Western Interior. Snow will be the predominant
  precipitation type to the west of the front, with rain to the
  east of the front. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are
  possible through Wednesday but could be limited by daytime
  heating.

- Breezy north/northwest winds strengthen going into Monday
  night and continue through Tuesday night.

- High temperatures will range from the low 30s along the coast to
  the low 40s farther inland. Lows will range from the upper teens
  across the Seward Pen and Kotzebue Sound to the low 20s across
  the Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Snow showers return to the Central/Eastern Brooks Range Monday
  evening before spreading across the Eastern Arctic Coast by
  Tuesday morning. Widespread snow showers are expected to reach
  Utqiagvik by late Tuesday night. Snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches will be possible through Thursday between Utqiagvik and
  Nuiqsut.

- Snow accumulations between 4 to 8 inches are possible
  through Atigun Pass as the frontal boundary stalls over the
  Central Brooks Range Tuesday through Wednesday.

- Gusty northeasterly winds increase Monday night from Nuiqsut
  to Kaktovik allowing for localized areas of blowing snow to
  develop through Tuesday night where there is fresh and/or
  falling snow.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A vertically-stacked low moving into southern Alaska will bring
unsettled weather to much of Northern Alaska as it pushes a warm
front north of the Alaska Range. This has resulted in increasing
winds through the Alaska Range, with some observation sites on the
north side of Isabel Pass already reporting gusts over 40 mph.
Winds will likely peak tonight into tomorrow morning. This
afternoon into tonight, precipitation will spread across the
Interior in a band along the front extending from the Western
Alaska Range to the Central/Eastern Brooks Range. Moving into
Tuesday, the front and corresponding precipitation band will
gradually shift eastward, with scattered to numerous showers
possible in the Central and Eastern Interior as this occurs. On
the immediate west side of the front, snow will be possible, but
in the warmer air on the east side, most precipitation will remain
rain (with perhaps rain/snow mix during overnight periods). Snow
will also be favored in the higher elevations (especially above
2000 feet), including the White Mountains, Dalton Highway Summits,
and the Alaska and Brooks Ranges. Any snow that manages to fall
in Interior valleys will likely be short-lived due to abundant
surface heating during the daytime periods and residual ground
heat.

In the Central and Eastern Brooks Range, snow totals could
exceed 6 to 8 inches with upslope flow. In the Arctic Plains and
on the Arctic Coast, from Tuesday through Thursday, most areas
will see the potential for at least a couple inches. Along the
Arctic coast between Utqiagvik and Nuiqsuit, there is uncertainty
on exact snowfall totals, but based on current model ensemble
prognosis, around 4 to 7 inches of snow will be possible. On the
eastern Arctic Coast, gusty easterly winds on Tuesday will turn to
westerly Tuesday night as the front moves north. Given the
likelihood for a couple inches of light snow during this same time
frame, blowing snow will be possible with these winds. On
Wednesday, as a shortwave trough transits across the Eastern
Interior from the southwest, isolated thunderstorms will be
possible in the area. Any storms will likely be limited to mostly
the higher terrain near the eastern border of Alaska.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through Sunday.
Westerly winds on the eastern Arctic Coast could continue into
Thursday evening on the south side of an Arctic low before
weakening. Light rain/snow will be possible in the southern
Interior from Thursday into Friday morning, but accumulations are
likely to be limited. Substantial moisture with a shortwave
trough/front from the North Pacific will push into the area
Saturday; this will allow for scattered to numerous showers,
mostly over the higher terrain, across much of Northern Alaska
moving into next week. The cold troughing over Western Alaska
could also exit the area during this time frame as the trough
shifts northwestward.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-852.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-860-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
&&

$$

DS