837
FXAK69 PAFG 152315
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
315 PM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...The longwave trough which has been steering the
weather across the region continues to remain entrenched through the
remainder of the week. A change is on the way though, at least for
the eastern interior beginning towards the end of the weekend.
Two broader lows and their associated fronts impact the state
through the first half of the weekend, with smaller embedded
shortwaves alongside. As a result, expect continuing chances of
rain and some periods of breezy conditions to prevail. The
potential for isolated thunderstorms will also exist on Wednesday
for areas between the White Mountains and the Alaska Range.
Temperatures trend generally towards the cooler side.


&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

-Windy conditions for areas at elevation in the White Mountains
 Wednesday night into Thursday. A Wind Advisory for gusts of up to
 40 mph has been issued for Eagle Summit and surrounding locations.

-Periods of rain and rain showers continue, with the best chances
for rain through Wednesday night.

-Drier weather and (for the Alaska Range Passes) windy conditions
return late in the weekend.

-Temperatures warm into the 70s for much of the eastern interior for
the late weekend onwards.


West Coast and Western Interior...

-Chances of rain showers remain through the weekend, with periods of
drier weather in between.

-Winds will generally trend out of the NW trough the remainder of
the week.

- Expect high temperatures in the 50s with low 60s possible by the
end of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

-A few isolated thunderstorms are possible through the remainder  of
the week.

-Rainfall totals for the Eastern Brooks Range and NE Arctic Plains
through Thursday could reach upwards of an inch.

-Expect high temperatures in the 50s with low 60s possible by the
end of the week.


&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

As of the time of writing a weakening low moving up from the SW
is crossing the interior of the state, rotating around a broad
longwave trough which stretches from the Kamchatka Peninsula to
the Yukon. While the organization of the low itself is decidedly
unimpressive, the remaining moisture continues to bring periods of
rain to much of the area. Over the past 72 hours, over 5 inches
of rain have fallen in portions of the southern Alaska Range,
with over 2 inches of rainfall for parts of the Kuskokwim
Mountains. An additional 0.1 to 0.5 inches of rain will fall
through the day on Thursday, barring higher totals of up to an
inch for the Yukon Flats and the NE Brooks Range, where 2-5 year
atmospheric return intervals are possible as an easterly wave
stalls overhead. As the decaying low continues moving off to the
NE, a period of stronger winds is expected Wednesday night through
the first half of Thursday for parts of the White Mountains and
40 mile country.

Through the daytime hours on Thursday, precip coverage diminishes
across much of the interior, and while some showers can`t be ruled
out, think that most areas will trend drier. The exception will be
the far SW Yukon Delta, where the next low will already be bringing
increasing chances of rain. By Thursday night, said low will be
steadily moving NE towards the rest of the interior even as the
old easterly wave over the NE Brooks Range dissipates. Do not
expect that this second system will bring quite as much wind to
various mountain passes in the Alaska Range as the current one has
given the less than ideal ESE flow during that time in that part
of the state. Ensemble guidance from GEFS and EMCWF are in solid
agreement on up to half inch of new rain across our area through
Friday, with over an inch possible for parts of the Brooks Range.
Precip coverage chances then look set to linger through the first
half of the weekend before drier weather sets in store for the
central and eastern interior as southerly flow from a plume of
moisture impacting the Wrangell St Elias Mountains leads to
downsloping- while chances of rain remain in the west. For
additional information, refer to the long term forecast
discussion.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Simply put, WCZ is shut down. Expect wet conditions for much of the
central/eastern Interior into Friday. Over the weekend, focus for
warm/dry continues to be out east, and into the Arctic Plains. While
not looking at any extreme fire weather potential, we are not
completely out of the fire season yet. Primary challenge is trying
to pinpoint localized areas of warm/dry where we could see some
resurgence of light IA activity.

Further details: A wet fall pattern continues with isolated
thunderstorms shifting into the Brooks Thursday and spread out a bit
into the interior Friday.  Trying to seek out any fire weather
concerns, the Arctic Plains and Upper Tanana (specifically
Tok/Northway) saw warm/dry over Tuesday; temps reaching near 70 and
min RH near or below 30 percent. However, as of Wednesday morning
the Upper Tanana saw trace to 0.03 inches of rain, with additional
light rain showers expected this afternoon.  The Arctic Plains also
looks to remain on the dry side, with chances to see wetting rains
below 10 percent into the weekend, with a warming/drying trend. The
missing critical ingredient is more widespread thunderstorm
activity, but if we can get some lightning to sneak north of the
Brooks Thursday, or human ignitions, there is still some limited
fire weather concerns for the plains.

Primary focus is on the ensemble agreement of a building ridge over
the weekend and into the start of next week, along with 850mb
temperatures near 12 to 15C, translating to a brief return of
warm/dry conditions for the Plains, Yukon Flats, and Upper Tanana.
There will be some moisture intrusion but we are rapidly moving past
the point of our peak seasonal lightning potential and down into the
August minimums.  At this time, the consensus between global
ensemble systems is a quick break down of the ridge allowing
southwest flow to dominate once again.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

None.


&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

Saturday through Tuesday.
Troughing over western Alaska is trapped between a ridge extending
from the North Pacific over eastern Siberia, and another ridge over
the eastern Gulf of Alaska and Canada. As a result, the pattern will
remain largely stationary through the extended forecast period.
Therefore, active weather will be dictated by the shortwaves
rotating around the trough and their associated surface lows. One
such surface low will be positioned over the Alaska Peninsula at the
start of the extended. Upper level flow between the low and the
ridge over Canada will support a resurgence of southerly gap winds
through the Alaska Range. Member low locations are relatively well
clustered over the Alaska Peninsula and model-to-model run shows a
strengthening trend for winds through the Alaska Range, providing
good confidence in at least 50 mph winds through the passes. Winds
should strengthen Saturday evening, and remain strong through Sunday
and much of Monday. Apart from the winds, the low will bring another
round of widespread rain for the western Interior throughout the
weekend. The ridge to our east will strengthen with support from the
Gulf allowing temperatures to rise in the eastern half of Alaska on
Sunday and Monday. Temperatures in the Central and Eastern Interior,
as well as the Eastern Arctic Plain, will likely peak in the mid to
upper 70s/low 80s on Monday before moderating again Tuesday.

As soon as the influence of the first low begins to wain, another
low is flung towards Alaska from the Bering on Tuesday, perpetuating
the cool, cloudy, and rainy weather across the majority of northern
Alaska.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
&&

$$

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