668
FXAK69 PAFG 302101
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
101 PM AKDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers will be gradually ending this afternoon/evening from
west to east. Tomorrow will be a mostly dry and warmer day across
Northern Alaska as ridging builds over the West Coast. A warm and
dry trend will continue through this weekend with temperatures
expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal Friday through Sunday.
Thunderstorms will be around, particularly over the AlCan, and in
the SE Interior/Eastern AK Range through Friday, then over the
Central/Eastern Interior this weekend. There is a heavy rain
potential in the Eastern Interior and AK Range on Saturday as a
front stalls southeast of Fairbanks.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Rain showers persist, gradually tapering from west to east
  through the evening.

- Warming and drying trend with highs back into the 70s in the
  valleys and 60s in the hills tomorrow through the weekend.

- Potential for heavy rain in the SE Interior on Saturday,
  especially near Delta Junction/Tok with upwards of 0.50"+
  possible.

- Isolated thunderstorms in the SE Interior through Saturday,
  potentially in the Central Interior on Sunday, though it is a
  non-zero chance.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Lingering showers and downpours this afternoon, especially along
  the Western Slopes of the AK Range.

- Drying trend has arrived, warming trend will come tomorrow with
  highs well above normal and back into the 60s/70s through the
  weekend. The only exception is St. Lawrence Island which will be
  in the 50s to near 60.

- Thunderstorm activity may return this weekend away from the
  coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Showers gradually exiting from west to east this afternoon with
  some sunshine returning tomorrow and through the weekend.

- Thunderstorms expected, mainly in the Eastern Brooks Range
  today.

- A drying and warming trend arrives tomorrow.
- High temperatures will return to the 50s and 60s along the
   coast (near or in the low 70s around Deadhorse/Nuiqsut)and mid
   70s inland.
- Expect highs in the 50s to near 70 in the Brooks Range (higher
   elevations cooler).

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Not much change compared to yesterday, we are seeing the eastward
progression of a trough across the Interior which is bringing
showers, locally heavy at times. There is a gradual drying trend
through the day in the Central Interior, then this evening/tonight
in the Eastern Interior. A low in the Gulf of Alaska will continue
to spin itself to oblivion. A front from this moves into the
Eastern Interior on Saturday and brings the potential for moderate
or even heavy rain, especially to the northern slopes of the
Eastern Alaska Range. Tok to Delta Junction will be monitored for
moderate rain as well. Otherwise, ridging begins to develop over
the West Coast tomorrow, this will provide drier and warmer
conditions to much of Northern Alaska through the weekend,
excluding where the front sets up.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A ridge will build over the West Coast tomorrow and persist
through the weekend and into early next week. Valley high
temperatures will be in the 70s and the hills will be in the 60s.
Min RHs look to be around 30 to 40%. We are seeing a higher
likelihood of rain in the Eastern Interior, specifically from the
Fortymile to the Eastern Alaska Range, including Tok and Delta
Junction as a front from the Gulf of Alaska moves into the area on
Saturday. The possibility that this front waivers west or east is
there and will have to be monitored because wherever this front
sets up, there can be moderate to heavy rain (potentially 0.50"+).

Nonetheless, thunderstorms are possible along the AlCan Border and
in the Eastern Brooks Range today, then a couple of storms in the
Southeast Interior tomorrow. On Friday, it`s looking like the
Southeast Interior and Alaska Range will all have chances for
storms. On Saturday, the chance for storms moves to Fairbanks
North Star Borough east to the Border.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Slight rises, around 1 to 2 feet on Interior rivers and creeks.
This might cover some gravel bars, but flooding is not expected.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
All the models have a ridge building over the Bering Sea on
Friday with a low in the Gulf of Alaska. A low pressure will be
moving into the southern Bering Sea this weekend, north of the
Aleutian Islands, bringing rain to southwestern Alaska and pushing
the ridge to the north and east. Looking towards next week the
12z model suite produced a vastly different solution compared to
previous runs. A shortwave feature over Southcentral Alaska will
create a triple point low with the main low pressure in the Bering
Sea. This will keep advecting moisture into the Interior,
allowing for a continued showery pattern into the middle of next
week. This would also cool the Interior down to near normal
temperatures by Tuesday. During this time there will be a
potential arctic front that will move across the North slope
bringing temperatures up to 10 degrees below normal.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Bianco
Dennis - Extended