111
FXAK69 PAFG 161223
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
423 AM AKDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of light precipitation is expected to move north across the
state Thursday through Saturday. Mostly rain is expected in
valleys with snow in the hills Thursday and early Friday with snow
becoming more prominent in the valleys Friday into Saturday. Light
accumulations expected. Easterly winds increase across North
Slope through Saturday. Temperatures cool through the weekend with
highs around freezing and lows in the 20s and teens by early next
week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Periods Light snow develop over the area Thursday afternoon and
  Thursday night over the foothills of the Alaska Range and higher
  terrain north and east of Fairbanks and will continue into
  Sunday. Light rain or rain snow mix in valley locations Thursday
  afternoon through Friday night will change to snow in valley
  locations by Saturday morning. Heaviest snow amounts are
  expected in Healy and higher terrain north and east of
  Fairbanks. Any daytime melting of snow will likely refreeze over
  night as temperatures drop below freezing.

- Colder temperatures return early next week with highs struggling
  to reach freezing and low temperatures dropping into the 20s
  and teens.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Light rain through the Bering Strait continues Thursday morning.
  Additional moisture returns Thursday night from the south.
  Locations along the West Coast especially in the YK Delta will
  see a rain or rain snow mix with little or no snow while the
  rest of the West Coast and Western Interior receive 1 to 2
  inches of snow through Sunday.

- Gusty northeast winds through the eastern Norton Sound diminish
  Thursday morning.

- Winds will shift to the West or Northwest in the 15 to 25 mph
  range along the YK Delta Coast on Thursday and will continue
  into Friday. Water levels in the YK Delta will rise 1 to 1.5 ft
  above the normal high tide line Friday to Sunday.

- Colder temperatures return early next week with highs in the mid
  30s and low temperatures dropping into the upper 20s along the
  coast and lower 20s inland.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Snow returns to the Brooks Range and North Slope Friday night
  into Saturday morning. Expect light accumulations generally an
  inch or less along the North Slope and 1 to 3 inches possible in
  scattered parts of the Brooks Range.

- Gusty easterly winds will spread from the Eastern Arctic Coast
  tonight to the Central Arctic Coast Thursday and then to the
  Western Arctic Coast by Thursday night. Easterly winds will gust
  as high as 35 mph to the east of Utqiagvik.

- Colder temperatures return early next week with highs in the mid
  20s along the coast and lower 20s inland. Low temperatures will
  drop low 20s along the coast and drop into the single digits
  above zero inland and in the Brooks Range.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
As of early Thursday morning, a large 978mb low sits near Kodiak
Island. This low continues east through Thursday and rapidly
weakens. Gusty winds through the Interior and West Coast weaken
through Thursday as the low weakens. The remnants of this low are
pulled north across the state by wrapping around a large upper
level trough in eastern Siberia stretching through the Bering Sea.
This brings additional moisture through the state allowing light
rain and snow to develop Thursday night through Sunday. This
trough pulls further east through the weekend and into next week
causing temperatures to fall consistently below freezing for most
of the region. Under this pattern several more lows are expected
to move through the North Pacific, southern Bering Sea, and
towards Gulf of Alaska and southern portion of the state. Areas
north of the Alaska Range will be largely sheltered from these
impacts although it is possible that the first permanent snowpack
will begin to form for the winter.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
At the start of the extended forecast period Saturday night,
another two strong lows move through the North Pacific towards
the Gulf of Alaska. The first stays south of the Aleutians and
reaches into the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday night. The second moves
further north and reaches the southwestern Bering Sea Sunday
night. This second low is expected to move east through the
southern Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday evening.
These systems are expected to increase north and northeasterly
winds across the northern half of the state as well as provide
additional moisture for light snow. These lows are still
developing systems and the forecast may change. Confidence has
increased on these lows taking these more southerly tracks and
large impacts are not expected for Northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Winds south of the Bering Strait shift westerly/northwesterly
Friday with gusts up to 30 mph expected. Onshore flow is expected
to raise water levels around 1 to 1.5 feet above the normal high
tide in the Yukon Delta Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-812-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805-851-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ859.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ860.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Stokes