746
FXAK69 PAFG 091354
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
554 AM AKDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
It`s a very "fall" like morning, that many people are waking up to
across Northern Alaska. Temperatures are in the 20s and 30s across
the area with mainly clear skies. In the Tanana Valley fog has
developed off the Tanana River and has moved into Fairbanks. This
fog is dense in some areas, and should quickly begin to mix out
once the surface inversion weakens. Temperatures across Northern
Alaska will remain below normal today, but will start to see a
warming trend across the state starting Wednesday afternoon. With
this warming trend, thunderstorm chances will make a return
Wednesday. They will initially be relegated to the Upper Tanana
and AlCan Border, but will spread north and west in coverage
through the end of the week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
-Dense fog developed in Fairbanks this morning and should mix out
 by 9 AM this morning.

-Below normal temperatures will continue today with highs around
 60F. Another chilly night is expected, with more frost potential
 across the Interior Valleys.

- A warming trend will return Wednesday afternoon with highs in
  the mid 60s and lows in the 40s. This trend will continue
  through the weekend, with daytime highs in the mid 70s by
  Saturday.

- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday in the
  Upper Tanana and AlCan Border. The thunderstorm potential will
  spread north and west Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Cooler and drier weather will continue today, before we start to
  see a more significant warming trend Wednesday. Temperatures
  will be in the mid 60s across the Interior and 40s/50s along the
  coast.

- Breezy southwesterly winds will develop Wednesday with 15 to 25
  mph winds possible. These winds will strengthen slightly on
  Thursday before dissipating on Friday.

- Some light scattered showers are possible along the coast
  Wednesday night.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Below normal temperatures will continue today before we start to
  see a warming trend start Wednesday. Temperatures will begin to
  warm into the 50s and 60s on the Arctic Plains, and into the
  upper 40s and low 50s along the coast.

- Gusty southwesterly winds along the Arctic winds will continue
  today. These winds will have gusts up to 35 mph, and will weaken
  overnight tonight.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Tuesday through Thursday Night.
A cold front that is lingering in the Eastern Interior is
beginning to stall this morning, as it is being separated from
the upper-level trough axis that brought it into the Interior.
Behind this cold front we are seeing temperatures in the upper 20s
and low 30s as well as clear skies. High pressure is building in
the Southern Bering Sea and Western Canada. This high pressure
will break us out of the colder pattern as it advects warmer 850
temperatures from our south. Some weak shortwaves will be moving
east from Siberia, and will bring some additional cloud cover, but
also some light showers Wednesday night.

As the surface high pressure builds over the Interior Thursday, we
will see increasing chances for thunderstorms across much of the
Eastern and Southern Interior. Some weak vort maxes will help
initiate these thunderstorms, but additional cloud cover could
inhibit how many actually develop. These thunderstorm chances will
also continue into Friday. Overall the shortterm forecast looks to
be fairly quiet across Northern Alaska. A low will move into the
northern Gulf of Alaska on Saturday, and will talked about in more
detail in the Extended Forecast Discussion.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front is stalling in the Eastern Interior leaving the
isolated storm potential to the Upper Tanana Valley, Fortymile
Country, and AlCan Border on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain
below normal on Tuesday with maximums capped in the upper 50s to
low 60s across both the Interior and the West Coast as an
unseasonably cool airmass lingers over the region. Clear skies on
Tuesday and Wednesday will accelerate a drying trend, driving
near-critical minimum relative humidity values down to 20 to 25
percent on Tuesday in the Interior Valleys, before continuing to
drop further into the low 20s on Wednesday under light, variable
winds. Cloud cover in the Western Interior Valleys will increase
on Thursday, helping to raise minimum relative humidities to the
mid 30s. On Wednesday, daytime mixing will generate increased
westerly to southwesterly winds between 5 and 15 mph with gusts up
to 20 mph primarily across the northeastern Interior, while the
West Coast and Seward Peninsula contend with stronger
southwesterly winds up to 30 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. A
gradual warming trend will cause high temperatures to exceed 70
degrees across the inland valleys by Friday, which will couple
with a weak incoming front on Thursday afternoon to produce
southwest winds up to 25 mph. This front will also help
thunderstorm development, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are possible in the Eastern and Southern Interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Sagavanirktok, Colville, and Kuparuk Rivers

Below normal temperatures continue across the North Slope, with
APRFC`s breakup map showing some open to mostly open water on the
Sag, Colville, and Kuparuk Rivers outside of immediately along the
Arctic Coast where mostly ice remains in place. Fresh Eyes on Ice
reports indicate that there could be some minor ice jams forming
near the coast, but impacts remain limited at this time and is more
just backing up water.

Colder temperatures will remain in place through today with
warming temperatures beginning Wednesday. Highs from Wednesday
through the end of the week will range from near 40 along the
coast to the mid 60s in the Brooks Range. This will likely
accelerate snowmelt and lead to rises on North Slope rivers. With
the recent cooldown and drop overall in most river levels, this
will likely give enough room for new snowmelt to join the channels
and help mitigate any significant flooding concerns at this time.
Stay tuned for updates.

For the latest breakup information, visit weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Friday through Monday.
A high pressure ridge will dominate northern Alaska on Friday,
bringing clear and dry weather that will allow conditions to warm
across the region. High confidence ensemble and model guidance
indicates that clustering remains better than normal through the
next week, bolstering forecast confidence in this ridge before it
begins to weaken as we move into the weekend. Convective activity
is likely Friday afternoon as a warm front advances into the
Central Interior, producing broader coverage of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms in the Eastern and Southern Interior. Stronger
southerly winds will develop along the West Coast on Friday, with
gusts peaking near 35 mph through the Bering Strait from Point
Hope to St. Lawrence Island before gradually weakening. Sunday
into Monday, a slow moving, closed low originating from the North
Pacific will lift northward into the Gulf of Alaska, cutting into
the ridge and tightening pressure gradients to strengthen winds
along the Alaska Range and weakening the ridge`s overall
influence. Although the primary heavy rainfall threat and stormier
conditions will remain focused over Southcentral Alaska and the
Gulf, the threat for more organized rain will increase across the
southwestern and western portions of the state by early next week
as southerly flow strengthens.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Dense Fog Advisory for AKZ844.
     Frost Advisory for AKZ844.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
&&

$$

Synopsis..............Dennis
Key Messages..........Dennis
Analysis/Discussion...Dennis
Fire Weather..........Satcher
Hydrology.............Dennis
Extended..............Satcher