060
FXAK69 PAFG 101335
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
535 AM AKDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Slightly cooler temperatures in the low to mid 50s continue
  this afternoon as a shortwave moves southeast across the
  state from the Chukchi Sea, eventually warming back into the
  upper 50s/low 60s by Friday.

- A strong low pressure system tracks northeast towards the
  Chukchi Sea Thursday into Friday and pushes a warm front into
  the Interior Thursday afternoon. As this system moves inland,
  more widespread rain and gusty winds are expected across the
  Interior through Saturday. New rainfall amounts could range
  from 0.50" to 1.50".

- By early next week, another low is expected to move into the
  Bering Sea and bring additional chances for rain and gusty
  winds across the Central/Southern Interior, especially for the
  Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A warm front continues to pushes east through the Western
  Interior this morning ahead of a strong low pressure system
  tracking northeast into the Chukchi Sea. As this system
  progresses farther east today into Friday, widespread rain and
  gusty winds will impact Western Alaska, with high surf and
  minor coastal erosion expected.

- High Surf Advisories remain in effect through late Friday
  night along the coast from the Yukon Delta to Kivalina for
  water level rises around 2 to 5 feet above the normal highest
  high tide line. High Wind Warnings also go into effect tonight
  through Friday afternoon for St. Lawrence Island and the
  Bering Strait for wind gusts up to 65 mph.

- Storm total rainfall amounts through Saturday will be around
  0.25" to 1.00" regionwide with the highest rainfall totals
  expected in the Southern Seward Peninsula, southern slopes of
  the Western Brooks Range, and Kobuk/Noatak/Wulik River Valleys
  around 1.50" to 2.50". Locally higher amounts nearing 2.75"
  to 3.50" is possible across the higher terrain due to strong
  upslope flow.

- By early next week, a new low pressure system is expected to
  move into the Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday bringing yet
  another round of widespread rain and gusty winds to Western
  Alaska. No coastal impacts are expected right now, but we will
  continue to monitor this system over the next few days.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- After a brief break from the rain this morning, rain
  showers return to the North Slope this afternoon as a warm
  front pushes east across the region ahead of a strong low
  pressure system tracking northeast into the Chukchi Sea. This
  system will bring widespread rain, gusty winds, and onshore
  flow to the NW Arctic Coast where high surf and minor coastal
  erosion is expected.

- High Surf Advisories remain in effect for the NW Arctic Coast
  from Point Hope to Wainwright for water level rises around 3
  to 5 feet above the normal highest high tide line. High Wind
  Warnings also remain in effect through Friday afternoon for
  Point Hope to Point Lay for wind gusts up to 65 mph.

- Storm total rainfall amounts through Saturday will range
  from 0.50" to 1.00" regionwide, with the highest rainfall
  totals in the Western Brooks Range around 1.50" to 2.50".
  Locally higher amounts nearing 2.75" to 3.50" is possible
  across the higher terrain due to strong upslope flow.

- By early next week, the Chukchi Sea low will continue to
  progress farther east into the Beaufort Sea, keeping much of
  the North Slope cool and fairly dry with the exception of a
  few scattered showers across the Brooks Range.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A few scattered showers linger throughout the Interior this morning
as a shortwave feature moves southeast and out of the state.
Following behind this feature is a warm front pushing east across
the state ahead of a strong low pressure system tracking northeast
into the Chukchi Sea. This low will bring widespread rain and gusty
winds to Western Alaska where High Surf Advisories and High Winds
Warnings are in effect through early Saturday morning. As this
system moves farther east into Friday, widespread rain and gusty
winds work their way into the North Slope and Interior as well with
storm total rain amounts between 0.50" to 1.50" expected regionwide.
Highest rainfall totals will be across the Southern Seward
Peninsula, south slopes of the Western Brooks Range, and the
Kobuk/Noatak/Wulik River Valleys where 1.50" to 2.50" is likely.
Going into the weekend, fairly cool and wet weather continues for
much of Northern Alaska before another low makes its way into the
Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday, bringing yet another round of
widespread rain and gusty winds to Northern Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The current forecast remains on track with a couple of features
driving weather conditions in the short term. The first of which is
a lingering shortwave feature previously originating from the
Chukchi Sea that is currently keeping the Central Interior fairly
cool and wet this morning. Scattered showers will mainly impact the
Middle Tanana Valley north and west towards the Yukon Flats and
AlCan border while the Upper Tanana Valley remains mostly dry due to
downsloping effects from a building upper level ridge over the
Alaska Peninsula. Additional rainfall amounts from this system will
be between 0.10" to 0.25". As this shortwave feature continues to
gradually move southeast and out of the state, a warm front
associated with a strong low over Siberia will push through the
state from west to east throughout today. This low pressure system
will continue to move northeast into the Chukchi Sea through Friday
and due to the North Pacific High sitting over the Alaska Peninsula,
a strong southwesterly pressure gradient forms over the West Coast.
This pattern will allow for widespread rain, gusty winds, and
onshore flow to impact Western Alaska through the first half of the
weekend. High Surf Advisories remain in effect along the coast from
Hooper Bay to Wainwright where water levels are expected to be 2 to
5 feet above the normal high tide line. Localized beach erosion may
occur as well, however flooding is not expected. Storm total
rainfall amounts will range from 0.50" to 1.00" regionwide with the
highest rainfall amounts expected in the Southern Seward Peninsula,
south slopes of the Western Brooks Range, and the Kobuk/Noatak/Wulik
River Valleys. In these areas, rainfall amounts will range from
1.50" to 2.50" with locally higher amounts nearing 2.75" to 3.50"
possible across the higher terrain due to strong upslope flow.
Additionally, High Wind Warnings remain in effect for St. Lawrence
Island, the Bering Strait, and Lisburne Peninsula for winds gusting
up to 65 mph.

As the low moves farther east going into the weekend, moderate to
heavy rain will spread farther south and east into the Interior with
additional rainfall amounts between 0.10" to 0.50". Confidence is
low in terms of the exact rainfall amounts expected through the
weekend given that they will depend on where the cold front stalls
and the orientation of the North Pacific High. Overall though, cool
and wet conditions will continue across much of Northern Alaska
through the first half of the weekend with slightly drier conditions
possible in the Central/Eastern Interior Saturday afternoon through
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At the start of the extended period, the low in the Chukchi Sea will
have moved east towards the Beaufort Sea and the North Pacific High
will have shifted east into the Gulf of Alaska. This shift in the
pattern allow for another low pressure system to work its way into
the Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday. Current model guidance has been
coming into better agreement regarding this system over the past few
days, but a bit of uncertainty still lies in terms of impacts. Right
now, models are hinting at this next low taking a more southerly
track with the low center making landfall near Hooper Bay sometime
Monday night. With this trajectory, moderate to heavy rain and gusty
winds will impact the West Coast yet again, but this time with
limited coastal concerns. Should this low tack a more northerly
track and make landfall closer to Norton Sound, coastal impacts
become more of a concern. However, that is not the case for right
now and model confidence is leaning towards another heavy rain and
gale force wind type system with marginal coastal concerns. Exact
rainfall totals with this storm is still uncertain right now as
well, but will likely mirror similar conditions to this previous
system as it too will be tapping into an abundance of moisture
funneling in via an atmospheric river from the tropics. By midweek,
models are showing this low moving north/northeast across the state
with the potential for some southerly gap wind development through
the Alaska Range Passes Tuesday into Wednesday. We will continue to
monitor this system over the next few days.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
A strong low pressure system originating from the Sea of
Okhotsk continues to track northeast towards the Chukchi Sea
Thursday morning, bringing widespread rain and gale force winds
into Norton Sound and Kotzebue Sound. With a strong
southwesterly pressure gradient centered over the West Coast,
strong winds with a large amount of fetch will result in water
level rises of 2 to 5 feet, with the highest water level rises
expected from Elim to Unalakleet. High Surf Advisories will
remain in effect across the entire coastline from Hooper Bay to
Point Lay through early Saturday morning. While no flooding is
expected, localized beach erosion may occur.

Due to a roughly 48 hour prolonged period of strong southwesterly
winds, there will be multiple high tide cycles that will be
elevated. Waters are slowly expected to this Thursday morning along
the Norton Sound and the Yukon Delta Coastline, reaching their peak
Thursday night before gradually returning to normal by late Friday
night. For communities along the Kotzebue Sound and NW Arctic
Coastline, waters will begin to rise early Thursday morning and peak
Friday morning before gradually returning to normal Saturday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Calmer winds are expected across the Interior Thursday following
Wednesday`s cold front. Surface pressure has increased significantly
across the Interior allowing for a break in the showery conditions.
A low moves across Siberia into the Chukchi Sea Thursday that
extends a warm front across the West Coast. Strong winds and heavy
rain are expected across the West Coast with a brief period of
relatively dry conditions early Thursday before the warm front
reaches into the Interior by midday. The orientation of this front
will keep much of the moisture out of the Southeastern Interior
Thursday. Friday sees a cold front move west to east across the
state enhancing precipitation once more across the Western Interior
as it drains the remaining moisture from the system. It isn`t until
late Friday into early Saturday that the front reaches the
Southeastern Interior and gives them another chance of rain. The
winds with this cold front are not expected to be as strong in the
Southeastern Interior as the Wednesday front was, but may be as
strong across the Northern Interior.

Temperatures warm Thursday and Friday following the warm front and
then cool again Saturday following the cold front. Another round of
rain moves across the Interior again Sunday, but the Southeastern
Interior is expected to remain mostly dry. This will help conditions
cooler and more mild there into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A strong low pressure system originating from the Sea of Okhotsk
continues to track northeast towards the Chukchi Sea Thursday
morning and will be accompanied by an atmospheric river extending as
far south as the tropics. This atmospheric river will help to
produce 72 hour rainfall totals of 0.50" to 2.50" for most of
Northern Alaska. The wettest areas will be the Southern Seward
Peninsula, south slopes of the Western Brooks Range, and the
Kobuk/Noatak/Wulik River Valleys. By Friday/Saturday, the front that
brought the moderate to heavy rainfall will drape and stall across
the northern slopes of the Alaska Range. This could help to produce
0.75" to 1.50" of rainfall in 24 hours from Denali Park to the White
Mountains including the FNSB. This rainfall isn`t expected to
produce any flooding impacts, but could create rapid water rises in
the surrounding smaller tributaries.

A hydrologic outlook remains in effect for portions of the Western
Brooks Range and Northwestern Interior, particularly the Kobuk,
Noatak, and Wulik River Valleys. With the continued periods of heavy
rainfall in this region, smaller streams will become more vulnerable
to bankfull conditions and rapid water rises. However, no flooding
in this region is expected.

Across most of Northern Alaska, the mainstem rivers are low and this
next round of moderate rainfall is not expected to create any
flooding hazards. However, a few smaller creeks and streams could
see rapid water rises and/or bankfull conditions. Recreators should
be prepared for rapidly changing water conditions in the smaller
tributaries.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ801-802-
     815>818.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ801-820-821-
     827.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ820>822-824-
     825.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801>807-816-
     817-850>854-856.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for
     PKZ806.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this
     evening for PKZ807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ808-809-855.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ810-857.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Friday for
     PKZ810-857.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ811-814.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Friday for
     PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ812-858.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Friday for
     PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ813-859-860.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT this
     afternoon for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Friday for
     PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ861.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Santiago
SYNOPSIS.......Santiago
SHORT TERM.....Santiago
LONG TERM......Santiago
COASTAL........Santiago
FIRE WEATHER...Stokes
HYDROLOGY......Dennis/Santiago