994
FXAK69 PAFG 252117
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
117 PM AKDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The story of the day, more rain and cool temperatures still. Heavy
rain over the Southern and Western Interior will be monitored
tonight through tomorrow. Widespread rainfall totals over 0.25"
are expected over much of the Interior with some spots approaching
or exceeding 1" total through tomorrow. Otherwise, Friday will be
drying in most spots. The North Slope will continue to be near
normal and mostly dry with the Brooks Range receiving showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Continued showers becoming more numerous this afternoon.
  - Isolated thunderstorms mostly north of the Tanana Valley
     with most thunderstorm activity centered from the Yukon
     Tanana Uplands to the Brooks Range.

- Heavy rain in the southern Interior this evening through
  tomorrow morning with a widespread 0.25 to 0.50". Heaviest rain
  will be in the terrain around Fairbanks and along the Alaska
  Range which could see more than 0.50 inches tonight.

- Friday dries out and becomes more typical with temps in the low 70s
  along with scattered showers and isolated storms.

- Warming and drying trend this weekend to near normal
  temperatures.

- Numerous rounds of rain possible in the Eastern Interior from
  Sunday through the middle of next week (will be monitored for
  days of heavy rain possible).

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Cool and wet weather continues with heavy rain from a low moving
  into the Western Interior tomorrow into Friday.
- A wide swath of 0.50 to 1.00" is expected from Russian Mission
   north/west to the Western Brooks Range and Southern AK Range.

- Breezy conditions develop from the Western Seward Pen to the YK
  Delta with gusts of 20 to 30 mph from the north/northwest.
  Thursday night to Friday morning.

- Conditions dry out on Saturday with lingering showers expected.
- Drying trend continues into next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Isolated thunderstorms along the Brooks Range and one change is,
  there is a chance for storms along the Eastern Arctic Coast
  today.

- Continued seasonable weather across the area, low stratus and
  some fog, locally dense along the coast.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The main piece of the forecast today is a strong shortwave moving
over the Alaska Range bringing heavy rain to portions of the
Interior tonight. This is being driven by a 545 decameter low in
the Aleutians and the remnant 564 decameter high in the Canadian
Archipelago. Strong easterly flow is a result of this pattern with
almost record high PWATs (Precipitable Water) which means there
is an abundant amount of moisture ready to fall in the atmosphere
with an ample amount of forcing. Again, the heaviest will be
hugging the Alaska Range, with heavy showers north of there from
Chicken to Fairbanks tonight through Thursday morning. Otherwise
this piece of energy hands out in the Western Interior Friday and
Saturday with heavy rain expected there as well, but Saturday will
transition to more rain showers than steady rain. Ridging then
begins to subtly build in and gradually dries things out.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Continued cool and wet weather for much of Northern Alaska. We
will still be looking for thunderstorms everywhere except for in
the Tanana Valley this afternoon. Most thunder will be found from
Chicken to the Brooks Range. Heavy rain is expected from the White
Mountains to the Alaska Range with a wide swath of 0.25 to 0.50
inches and around 0.50 to 1.00 around the Alaska Range tonight
through tomorrow morning. Heavy rain then moves to the Western
Interior tomorrow through Friday with a wide swath of 0.50 to 1.00
inches from Russian Mission north and west to the Brooks and
Alaska Range. Otherwise the thunderstorm threat will be mostly
over the higher terrain north of the Alaska Range Thursday, Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
no significant issues expected in the short term. We will be
monitoring the chance for an inch, or even inches of rain Sunday
through Tuesday next week in the Yukon Tanana Uplands and Eastern
Alaska Range as strong northeast flow sets up with an abundant
amount of moisture.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The main things we will be monitoring is a building high over
Northern Alaska next week bringing the potential for warmer and
drier weather. Thankfully it is not looking hot and significantly
dry because we will have a low in the Gulf of Alaska helping us
get easterly flow which will limit temperatures and humidity.
Prior to this building in though, we will be monitoring strong
northeast flow. As the high builds in from the west, it will
interact with a low in the Gulf, this will bring northeast flow
from the Yukon Tanana Uplands to the Eastern Alaska Range from
Monday through Tuesday. It is looking more likely to have a few
days of heavy rain and thunderstorms in this area. Preliminary
rainfall totals for the 3 days look like they can be over 1 to 2
inches. This will be monitored closely.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Bianco