939
FXAK69 PAFG 171353
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
553 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Generally cool and wet weather continues today across Northern
Alaska as an upper level trough out west continues to drive the
overall pattern. This feature will support scattered to widespread
showers across Western Alaska going into the weekend with a few
isolated showers possible in the Interior and North Slope today.
By late Saturday evening, ridging begins to build in from Western
Canada, pushing the low over Western Alaska farther west and
creating strong southerly Chinook flow over the state. This
pattern will not only support warmer and drier weather for the
Central/Eastern Interior but also allow for strong southerly gap
winds to develop through the Alaska Range Passes, with gusts up to
60 mph possible.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Fairly benign weather today with highs in the mid to upper 60s
  and a few isolated showers this morning to the south and west of
  Fairbanks. More scattered to widespread showers are possible
  overnight into Saturday from the White Mountains north.

- Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon/evening across
  the Interior. By tomorrow, a slight chance for isolated
  thunderstorms is possible over the higher terrain of the
  Interior from the White Mountains north towards the southern
  slopes of the Brooks Range.

- Periods of gusty southerly winds develop through the Alaska
  Range Passes early this morning with 45 mph gusts possible.
  These winds are expected to gradually strengthen Saturday
  afternoon into Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens.

- Warmer and drier weather arrives on Sunday and continues into
  early next week as ridging builds over Western Canada and a
  strong Chinooking pattern sets up.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Cool and wet weather continues over Western Alaska today through
  the weekend as widespread showers persist over the region.

- Rainfall totals through Sunday afternoon will be around 0.10" to
  0.25" along the coast, 0.25" to 0.50" in the Interior and 0.50"+
  in the southern slopes of the Western Brooks Range.

- Temperatures warm slightly into the low to mid 60s going into
  the weekend, but will likely remain below 70F.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Areas of low stratus and patchy fog may continue to develop in
  the evenings/overnight along the Arctic Coast through the
  weekend as weak onshore flow persists.

- Strengthening southerly flow aloft and downsloping effects over
  the Brooks Range will allow for a warming trend into the mid to
  upper 60s over the Arctic Plains going into the weekend.

- Scattered showers are expected to continue across mainly the
  southern slopes of the Brooks Range today through the weekend
  with rainfall accumulations between 0.25" to 1.00" possible.
  Showers shift towards the Western Brooks Range by Sunday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Broad upper level troughing persists over the state today,
supporting scattered to widespread showers across Northern Alaska
this morning. These showers will move from south to north across the
state today, with the heaviest and most consistent showers being
over the Western Interior north towards the southern slopes of the
Brooks Range. Rainfall totals will range from 0.25" up to 1.00"
through Saturday, with 0.10" to 0.25" expected along the West Coast.
A few isolated to scattered showers remain possible across the
Central/Eastern Interior this morning and afternoon, but should
largely move out of the region this evening. As a series of weak
shortwaves embedded in the overall pattern move through the
Interior, a few isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
and Saturday. However, thunderstorm coverage is expected to shift
north into the higher terrain of the Interior by Saturday, with
isolated thunderstorms possible from the White Mountains north
towards the southern slopes of the Brooks Range.

As we head into the weekend, the broad area of troughing over
Western Alaska starts to retreat southwest towards Bristol Bay
allowing for an upper level ridge to gradually build in over Eastern
Alaska. With this set up, we start to see strong southerly Chinook
flow set up over the state. This pattern will allow for a warmer and
drier conditions over the eastern half of the state while the
western half continues to see cooler and wetter weather. As
southerly flow is reinforced aloft, the gradient over the Alaska
Range tightens and supports the development of strong southerly gap
winds through the Alaska Range Passes. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are
possible today with gusts as high as 60 mph possible Saturday night
into Sunday. A Wind Advisory may be warranted this weekend, but
we will continue to monitor conditions in the meantime.

Looking ahead into next week, the two main features driving the
pattern will continue to be the broad area of troughing out west and
the ridging over Eastern Alaska. These two features will "push/pull"
with one another through midweek, with the stronger feature of the
two dictating how the rest of the week will play out. For now, we
expect to see a return of upper level troughing over the state. This
will support additional rounds of precipitation across Northern
Alaska, as well as a chance for increased thunderstorm activity
early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A gradual warming/drying trend is expected to continue across the
Interior throughout the weekend. Over the next couple of days,
chances for isolated thunderstorms will continue during the
afternoon as a series of weak frontal systems move across the
Interior. With southerly flow continuing aloft, chinooking
conditions will continue to provide gusty winds through the Alaska
Range passes. On Friday, gusts are expected to be between 30 and 40
mph. By the mid weekend, gusts could increase to as high as 60 mph
as ridging forms out east, creating a tighter gradient. These
stronger winds could persist through the start of next week. In
addition, Monday afternoon is expected to be the warmest/driest day,
during the forecast period, with temperatures ranging between the
upper 70s and the mid 80s and min RHs between 30 and 35 percent. The
driest conditions can be expected over the Yukon Flats, the Upper
Tanana, and Fortymile Country.

Looking out west, broad troughing across Western Alaska will
continue to allow for a cool and wet pattern. This will eventually
push farther east around early to mid next week, which will bring
another round of precipitation across the Interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this point, but consistent rain over the southern
slopes of the AK Range as well as in Western Alaska will keep the
rivers running high but there is no concern for flooding.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Monday through next Friday.
At the start of the extended forecast period, the overall pattern is
dominated by a large upper level low over the Eastern Bering Sea and
a ridge over the Yukon that pushes against the low. This pattern
encourages broad southerly flow over Northern Alaska with wetter,
cooler conditions expected across the West Coast and Western
Interior and warmer, drier conditions expected in the Eastern
Interior. Periods of strong winds are possible through the Alaska
Range passes Sunday through Monday morning. The axis upon which the
ridge and low push against each other shifts Monday afternoon more
southeasterly and allows for greater warming to push over the North
Slope and Eastern Interior Monday into Tuesday. Most likely the
ridge will push farther east into Canada by midweek allowing the low
to further influence the region causing next week to remain on the
cooler and more showery side of things. However, it remains possible
that the ridge may regain its strength and push further into the
Interior late next week which would bring warmer and drier days to
the region. There is however no indication that the low or ridge
will be entirely done away with for the next week, which should keep
the pattern and subsequent weather quite familiar.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Santiago
Twombly - Fire Weather
Stokes - Extended