628
FXAK69 PAFG 192131
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
131 PM AKDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Generally quiet weather today as pressure builds behind a front
bringing light showers to the central and eastern Interior through
tonight. Showers will generally be rain in the valleys and snow in
the hills. The next system approaches the West Coast Sunday
bringing additional rain/snow mix to areas from the southern
Seward Peninsula to the YK Delta Sunday through Tuesday while the
Interior dries out. The North Slope sees moderate to weak easterly
winds with areas of fog and low stratus clouds.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

-Light showers continue through early Sunday. Showers will be
 mostly rain in the valleys and mostly snow in the hills.

-Cool and wet today with showers keeping afternoon highs in the
 mid 30s to low 40s. As we dry out Sunday and Monday highs will
 increase to the mid to upper 40s and lows will decrease to below
 freezing allowing another week of freeze thaw cycles.

-Showers return to the Fortymile Country and upper Tanana Valley
 Monday afternoon. These too will be mostly rain in the valleys
 and mostly snow in the hills.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-A few showers linger near the front in the Western Interior
 today. These are almost all snow showers with little to no
 accumulations.

-Showers return to the Yukon Delta Sunday evening as the next
 system approaches. Showers stretch north to the southern Seward
 Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island by Monday morning. Showers are
 expected to be a messy rain/snow mix with generally 1 to 2 inches
 along the coasts, up to an inch in the lower and middle Yukon
 valleys where much of the mix will be rain with occasional
 overnight snow showers, and up to 2 to 3 inches for St. Lawrence
 Island and the hills north of Nome.

-Winds shift eastnortheast through the Norton Sound and Bering
 Sea with sustained winds generally 10 to 20 mph with stronger
 gusts out of areas favorable to easterly winds like Unalakleet.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

-Easterly winds continue to diminish as higher pressure builds
 through the day and weakens the gradient.

-Isolated snow showers remain through tonight, but become
 increasingly isolated and rare through today.

-Areas of fog and low stratus clouds are expected to persist
 through much of the week as high pressure traps moisture nearer
 the surface. These will be most common on the Arctic Coast east
 of Point Barrow.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

A weakening front stretches from the Western Brooks Range through
the lower Kobuk valley and into the Interior is supporting
isolated showers in the Central and Eastern Interior today. This
front is slowly moving east towards the Alaska Canada border while
actively collapsing making showers less likely through the day and
evening with showers only remaining in the Yukon uplands and
southeastern Brooks Range by Sunday morning. Pressure builds in
the Interior as an Arctic High moves south and morphs into a long
ridge through mainland Alaska today and tomorrow. Another low
moving into the Bering stretches a front to the southwest coast
Sunday afternoon bringing a messy mix of wet snow, sleet, and rain
to the Yukon Delta Sunday evening. This precipitation will stretch
to the southern Seward Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island by Monday
morning with snow becoming more predominant as you move further
north with Nome and St. Lawrence Island seeing almost all snow.
These showers will last through Tuesday morning before the parent
low to the front gets pulled south into the Gulf of Alaska
Tuesday. As this starts to move further south the initial front
will push north across the Alaska range in the southeastern
Interior bringing some light showers to the Fortymile Country and
the upper Tanana Valley. These will be mostly rain in the valleys
and mostly snow in the hills with little snow accumulation
expected.


&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
After the Bering low moves into the Gulf on Tuesday pressure drops
in the Interior as broad troughing sets up across the Interior.
Another low moves along the Aleutian Archipelago Thursday through
Sunday with models having difficulty determining it`s exact path.
The Canadian models pull a weak low from Siberia into the Bering
Sea and strengthens it until it overpowers the Aleutian low which
would bring stronger winds and additional snow to the West Coast,
but the Canadian model is the only of the global models showing
this solution. All other guidance shows the main low moving along
the Aleutians and into the Gulf of Alaska and thus we favored
other models in our forecast. Most likely this system will move
into the Gulf of Alaska with minimal impacts to Northern Alaska,
leaving the region quiet through the end of the week, but should
the Canadian verify we can expect some minor impacts from winds
and snow along the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813>815-858-859.
&&

$$