077
FXAK69 PAFG 062018
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
Issued by National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1218 PM AKDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A very unusual and cold pattern for June is taking
shape across Northern Alaska with snow falling in the Brooks
Range today and even south of the Brooks Range. By Sunday, snow
levels will be down to 2000 feet across the central Interior with
snow possible across high terrain as temperatures struggle to
reach 50 degrees across Interior Valleys. The North Slope will
also see accumulating snow this weekend while the West Coast will
be mostly clear. Frost possible across Interior valleys Saturday
through Monday mornings before a sharp warm up to more summerlike
conditions is expected by the middle to end of next week. These
conditions do look to be fairly short lived though

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Much colder temperatures will move into the area through the
  weekend as snow levels slowly drop to 2000 feet by Sunday.

- Frost possible across valleys Saturday through Monday mornings.

- Rain and snow or all snow possible above 2000 feet elevation by
  Sunday. Accumulating snow possible at Coldfoot, over summits,
  and through Alaska Range passes. See Special Weather Statement
  for details.

- Breezy west/southwest winds across the rest of the Interior
  persist through Monday.

- Due to very cold temperatures aloft, isolated thunderstorms are
  still expected across the eastern Interior, mainly over terrain
  on Friday and Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Clearing skies across the West Coast with conditions remaining
  clear through the weekend.

- North-northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph through
  the Bering Strait continue into Saturday night before wind
  weaken on Sunday and turn southerly on Monday.

- Temperatures will be well below normal with highs mainly in the
  40s. Frost is likely across Western Interior valleys this
  weekend. Warming back to seasonable conditions expected
  beginning Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Heavy snow is likely in the Brooks Range and north to Toolik
  Lake today and over the weekend. The heaviest snow likely today
  through Saturday morning. Another round is likely on Sunday
  night. Expect 6-12" of total accumulation.

- Intermittent snow showers are also expected across the North
  Slope and Arctic Coast east of Deadhorse through Sunday.

- Well below normal temperatures continue with highs around
  freezing and lows mainly in the low 20s. Warming is expected
  toward the middle to end of next week.

- Persistent onshore flow results in low stratus and fog potential
  continuing through the weekend, especially during the "night".

- Winds generally 20 mph or less.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...A highly anomalous cold Arctic
low has begun to drop south over the western Brooks Range,
bringing 500 mb heights as low as 2.5 standard deviations below
the median over the Western Interior by Sunday morning. In other
words, over 99% of the time this time of year, heights are higher.
This is a remarkably rare (and cold!) pattern setup. 850 mb
temperatures will be up to 12 C below normal over portions of the
NW Interior, and will drop below 0 C for all areas by Sunday
night. Models have backed off slightly on the amount of cold air
within the core, but are now spreading it further east, eroding
away the warmer air in place. As the low drops south, northerly
flow west of the low will bring clearing skies to the West Coast
and far Western Interior while southerly flow with embedded
shortwaves east of the low brings rain and even snow showers above
2000 feet. Cold temperatures all the way up to 500 mb will allow
for continued isolated thunderstorms across the eastern Interior,
mainly over terrain Friday and Saturday, but no thunderstorms are
expected Sunday and Monday. This pattern largely persists through
the short term with no significant warming expected until the
middle of next week.

Models are in decent agreement on the overall pattern and just
differ on precip timing and amounts. The GFS has however begun to
stray from the other global models in the short term, bringing the
upper low east across the Interior instead of south to the Gulf
of Alaska, though the 12z run came close to course correcting but
still sent more energy across the Interior than we anticipate. We
will continue to lean more on the Canadian model as it has been
the most consistent and has verified the best so far as this
pattern develops. It also tends to verify better with systems
moving out of the Arctic. Blends such as the NBM will continue to
struggle in this anomalous pattern due to bias correction from
recent seasonable conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There are minimal fire weather concerns in the
short term. Temperatures and RHs will be much cooler and wetter
than normal across all areas. Winds will be blustery out of the
southwest with gusts to 25 mph across high terrain in the Interior
through Monday. Winds will briefly shift to easterly on Saturday
across the central and eastern Interior. Only isolated
thunderstorms are expected across the eastern Interior Friday and
Saturday, with no thunderstorms expected Sunday and into early
next week. Next week, ridging does look to build in and bring
summer-like temperatures for the middle to end of next week. This
ridge only looks to last 3 or 4 days at max before a return to a
cool and wet pattern appears likely.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The only breakup concern remaining is the Sag
River. Temperatures remain below normal through early next week
so break-up is not expected quite yet. There are no major
concerns unless there is a rapid warm up. Warming is expected
toward the middle to end of next week, though as this time,
temperatures look to remain mostly in the 50s across the Sag
basin. This should be enough to finally get breakup started up
there, and we`ll be monitoring conditions as they evolve along
with the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center.

Rivers and streams draining the south slopes of the central Brooks
Range including the Koyukuk will see minor rises this week and
weekend, but there are no concerns. Elsewhere, there are also no
concerns.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...The extended forecast period will
begin Monday morning with the upper low over the western Alaska
Range before it drops south into the Gulf of Alaska. The 06z GFS
hinted at bringing the low back east across the Interior instead
of into the Gulf, but the 12z run course corrected and we think
the Interior solution is unlikely. Under the Gulf solution, skies
would clear across the area with a chilly Monday morning before
warming through the week as ridging builds in from the southwest.
Precipitation from systems in the western Bering Sea will likely
reach the West Coast Tuesday through Thursday. The North Slope and
Brooks Range look to finally warm up by the middle to end of next
week under the ridge.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$