542
FXAK69 PAFG 121143
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
243 AM AKST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will dominate the pattern, as a strong high
will strengthen further, resulting in gale force winds and
widespread blowing snow over the Arctic coast beginning today and
lasting through the end of the week. An arctic cold front will
bring strong northeast winds down into the Interior and all the
way to the West Coast, causing blustery conditions and blowing
snow concerns to higher elevations in the Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 559 dam high over the Chukchi Sea, with an associated
ridge axis extending down to the Alaska Range. There is a large
and broad upper level trough from the Kamchatka Peninsula to the
Bering Sea, with the center at 497 dam. A remnant warm front
persists over the West Coast with temps into the mid to upper 30s
across the Bering Strait. A 1031 mb surface high over the Yukon
Territory extends into the Interior with clear skies and marginal
inversions.

Forecast and Model Discussion...
A deepening trough will move from the Canadian Archipelago into
the Arctic Coast and down into the Interior tonight through
Friday, pushing a strong arctic front down with it. The arctic
high will strengthen to 1057 mb with increasing east winds along
the arctic coast to gale force, with gusts pushing to near 50 mph.
Extensive blowing snow is expected with potential blizzard
conditions. Increasing northeast to east winds will blow over the
Interior as well, resulting in wind chills into the -25 to -40 F
range, along with blowing snow over Interior higher elevation
highway summits. Favored models to capture these impacts were the
Canadian Regional and NAM nest.

Central and Eastern Interior...
High pressure dominates again today with mostly clear skies and
marginally strong inversions. Temps will warm during the day
periods as the solar insolation is increasing with each day.
Thursday and Friday, a moderate strength arctic front will move
down from the Yukon, bringing increasing northeast winds and
colder wind chills with it. Winds over Interior summits will gust
into the 30 mph range, with gusts into the 20s over lower
elevation valleys. Further north along the Dalton, east winds will
push 45-50 mph, with signifiacnt blowing snow possible. Delta
Junction will see near 50 mph with an easterly Tanana Valley Jet.
As the arctic trough shifts north later in the week, some snow
showers will move into the Alaska Range, bringing light
accumulations. We will be issuing winter weather advisories for
the Steese Hwy Summits mainly for Eagle and Twelvemile Summits,
for blowing snow.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Warm temps remain today as a ridge aloft is stuck in place.
However, a cold front and northeast offshore winds rapidly
increase Thursday to near gale force. Winds wane a bit Friday, but
strong northeast winds will persist a bit longer over the Chukchi
Sea. Light snow showers will be possible Friday and Saturday as a
deep upper low shifts over the region, and colder air persists.

North Slope and Arctic Coast...
Stratus and some fog are in place across the Arctic. This will
persist into today, then a strong arctic front will dive in and
increase east winds tomorrow all the way through the week,
bringing extensive blowing snow and the potential for whiteout
conditions tonight into Thursday, but continued chances for
blowing snow all the way through the weekend. We will be upgrading
winter storm watches to blizzard warnings for Point Lay,
Wainright, Atqasuk, and Prudhoe Bay, with a blowing snow advisory
for slightly lesser conditions at Utqiagvik. We will also be
issuing a blowing snow advisory for Atigun Pass as east winds will
likely loft snow from the mtns and blow it over the summit.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Upper troughing will persist over the NW part of Alaska with weak
high pressure aloft over the E Interior, promoting a continuance
of generally drier weather for the Interior, with only minor
chances for snow out west. Temps are near seasonal norms across
most of the state with no significant anomalies.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801-802-804-805.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ808-812-832-834.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ803.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-813-858-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.

&&

$$

Ahsenmacher