334
FXAK69 PAFG 172133
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
133 PM AKDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A series of disturbances will bring multiple rounds of rain and
cloud cover across Central and Northern Alaska over the next week.
This will keep temperatures near or below average, with most seeing
highs in the 50s and lowers 60s. There will also be the potential
for snow, or a rain/snow mix in the Brooks Range and North Slope
Monday Night through Tuesday Night. By Wednesday morning, isolated
locations in this region may pick up 1 to 2 inches of snow.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Cloud cover today will keep temperatures below average, with
  highs in the 50s and lower 60s.

- The next storm system will bring widespread rain (80-90% chance)
  across most of the Interior Monday Night through Tuesday Night.

- High pressure will keep skies relatively clear Wednesday, with
  another storm system approaching the region from the west by
  Thursday, bringing clouds and showery activity (30-40% chance
  of rain) for the upcoming weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- An unsettled pattern will continue today through tomorrow night,
  with widespread cloud cover, patchy fog, and periods of light
  rain (40-50% chance).

- After a lull in storminess on Tuesday, an active pattern quickly
  returns to the West Coast Wednesday and lasts into the upcoming
  weekend with multiple rounds of clouds, rain and gusty winds
  expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- An upper-level disturbance will bring increasing clouds and
  chances (30-40%) for light rain today and tonight.

- Monday into Tuesday Night, a storm system will bring widespread
  rain (70-80% chance) to the North Slope, with rain/snow mix, and
  snow showers in and just north of the Brooks Range.

- After the main system exits to the east Tuesday Night, clouds
  and periods of light rain will continue into next weekend.


&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

...Today and Tonight...

Weak troughing over far Northeast Russia and the Bering Strait
combined with diffluent flow aloft over Western Alaska has led to
widespread cloud cover and drizzle/light rain across the West Coast.
High pressure across the Central Interior, and Central and Eastern
Brooks Range/North Slope will keep skies mostly clear.
Remnant moisture from last week`s storm system with weak forcing for
ascent will keep a stubborn cloud deck across much of the Eastern
Interior this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be slightly
below average, with highs in the 50s and lower 60s.


...Monday and Tuesday...

A shortwave trough is expected to deepen and move across Northern
Alaska during this time frame. The corresponding storm system
will bring widespread rain (80-90%) across the entire forecast
area, with the exception of the West-Central Coast. Here, rain
will be more spotty (30-40% chance). While accumulations should
remain light (under 0.25"), much higher amounts of up to an inch
will be possible along and near the Brooks Range. Furthermore,
with temperatures dropping near or below freezing at the higher
elevations of the Brooks Range, these areas will see a rain/snow
mix give way to snow showers Monday Night into Tuesday. A few
isolated areas may see 1 to 2 inches of snow by Tuesday Night.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Weather conditions will generally be unfavorable for fires, with
frequent periods of cloud cover and light rain, and relative
humidities remaining above 40%, even in the Yukon Flats and the
Upper Tanana Valley. After the next storm system exits into
Northwest Canada on Wednesday, the next storm system will quickly
move into the region by the end of the week, only providing a
narrow time frame Tuesday (Western Alaska) and Wednesday (Central
and Eastern Alaska) for modest drying of fine fuels.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

While there are no flooding concerns at this time, the storm system
Monday and Tuesday may bring as much as an inch of rain to portions
of the Brooks Range. This may bring a period of elevated water
levels for local creeks and streams, particularly for areas between
the Central Brooks Range and Kotzebue Sound.



&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

By Wednesday Night, our next period of unsettled weather will
commence as longwave troughing re-establishes over the Bering Strait
and Western Alaska. There continues to be some uncertainty with the
exact timing of this mid-week storm system. With coastal impacts
peaking anytime between Wednesday Night and Thursday Night, and the
corridor of highest precipitation anywhere from the Seward Peninsula
to the Western North Slope. Regardless of the timing and location
details, widespread wetting rain (at least 0.25") is expected across
the forecast area for the end of this week into the upcoming
weekend. Isolated spots, most likely near the Lisburne Peninsula and
Brooks Range, could see 1 to 2 inches of rain when all is said and
done. This will bring the potential for minor rises in streams and
creeks, particularly in the northern Interior (Brooks Range
foothills). and the Lisburne Peninsula. The general unsettled
pattern and troughing over the region will also keep temperatures
below average, with highs expected to remain in the 50s and low 60s
for most.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PCs-807-854. Small Craft Advisory
for PCs-809-855. Small Craft Advisory for PCs. Small Craft
Advisory for PCs-857. Small Craft Advisory for PCs. &&

$$

Darrah