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FXAK69 PAFG 021326
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
526 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

SYNOPSIS...
Wet weather will continue for much of Northern Alaska as fast
moving systems will bring round after round of rain. Increasing
rain chances today in the Eastern Interior, as a cold front moves
over the area. The Western Interior will see a quick reprieve this
evening as dry air is following behind a cold front, however this
will not last as another round of rain is expected Wednesday
evening. The North Slope will see scattered rain chances through
the week.


KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light showers are continuing across the Central and Eastern
  Interior this morning. These will scatter out by Noon today.

- More rain showers spread over the area Wednesday PM with
  increasing chances by Thursday afternoon with a soaking rain
  possible in the Eastern Interior Thursday night into Friday.

- Temps stay in the low to mid 60s for most, with low to mid 70s
  in the Upper Tanana Valley.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Rain is continuing in the Western Interior with showers along
  the coast through this afternoon.
- 0.05 to 0.15 inches additional rain in the Interior Valleys.
- 0.10 to 0.25 inches additional along the Coast.
- Up to 0.40 inch in the higher terrain of the Interior.

- Another round of rain moves into Southern Interior Wednesday
  morning, to the northern Interior by Wednesday evening.
- Additional 0.50 to 1.00" possible.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Periods of rain continue in the Brooks Range through Thursday.
- 1 to 2 inches of rain through Thursday.

- Chukchi Sea Coast gets scattered to numerous showers through
  tomorrow with isolated showers possible elsewhere this week.
- 0.15 to 0.50 inches of rain from Utqiagvik to Point Hope
   through Thursday.
- A trace to 0.10 inches elsewhere along the Slope and Coast.

- Atigun Pass will see up to 0.75 inches of rain through Friday
  with the heaviest rain on Thursday. Overnight Tuesday and
  Wednesday could see snow mix in with the rain creating a
  rain/snow mix. Snow totals would be around an inch through
  Wednesday.


FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
An occluded low is rapidly weakening and quickly moving Northeast
from the Y-K Delta to Canada. This low will bring a sweeping cold
front across the Interior today. An 850 mb jet of 30 to 40 mph
will accompany this front. In the higher terrain there will be
some gusty southwest winds, while the valleys could have an
occasional gust of 20 mph. The winds will quickly calm down once
the cold front moves past, as there is not really any surface
pressure gradient to accompany this system.

Looking towards Wednesday with our next system. By the time it
passes the Aleutian Islands early Wednesday morning, cold and dry
air is wrapping into the low level circulation. This will inhibit
the growth of the system through the whole column. With the
moisture cutoff from the main moisture feed in the North Pacific,
rainfall is looking to be less than the past few storms. The south
facing slopes of higher terrain will still see higher rain
amounts, due to upsloping. The Western Interior Valleys will see
more showery precipitation due to the weak frontal strength. This
system will move across the Interior Thursday. An arctic airmass
will reinforce this sytem as it is over the Eastern Interior.
Bringing cooler temperatures, and increasing rain chances.


Fire Weather...
Most of the concern remains in the Upper Tanana Valley.
Temperatures have been above normal for some time now in the Upper
Tanana Valley, and will continue until Friday when an arctic
airmass will come through the area. Cloud cover will help to keep
minimum RH values above 40 percent across the Eastern Interior.
Ridgetop winds will be gusty today as a weak cold front moves
through the Eastern Interior. There could be some gusts up to 25
mph on the ridgetops.

HYDROLOGY...
A variety of flood products remain across the Interior and Brooks
Range. Additional rainfall is likely through today with up to
0.75 inches possible in the Brooks Range, and generally 0.1 to
0.25 inches across Western Alaska. There will be very slow
improvement to the current river statuses this week and we expect
them to remain high. Additional waves of rain look likely during
the middle and end of the week as there is no end in site. For the
most updated forecasts and warnings, visit:

weather.gov/afg and weather.gov/aprfc

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Another low pressure system will move into the Bering Sea by
Friday morning. This low will be accompanied with moisture from
the Central Pacific. As we move into Friday evening another round
of rain will move through the Western Interior. By Sunday night
this rain will make it`s way into the Eastern Interior. This rain
could be heavy at times, but will be showery in nature. The warm
front looks to be fairly weak, but the Eastern Interior could see
a brief warm up Sunday before the rain arrives.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&


.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-853-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-811-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-814.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

Dennis