030
FXAK69 PAFG 110000
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front extending from a 965 mb low in the western Bering
Sea will continue to move north and east over the West Coast, the
Western Interior and Western Brooks Range and will weaken through
the night tonight. Expect winds and additional rain with snow in
the higher elevations of the Brooks Range. All attention turns to
the Typhoon Halong. Typhoon Halong is currently in the Northern
Pacific and will become exta-tropical and weaken slightly before
rapidly strengthening as it moves into the Southern Bering Sea on
Saturday. All preparations for this storm should be completed this
evening as conditions will rapidly deteriorate on Saturday. As
the former- typhoon enters the Bering Sea, it will bring strong
and damaging wind gusts, in some cases potentially upwards of 80
to 100 mph to the YK Delta and gusts in excess of 80 mph to St.
Lawrence Island. Expect widespread 60 to 70 mph wind gusts
elsewhere, including the northern Seward Peninsula and Kotzebue
Sound. A slight change in the track of the storm to the east has
now brought the potential for the strongest winds to the Yukon
Delta Coast where winds could bring damaging wind gusting in the
80 to 100 mph range. Flooding for parts of the Bering Sea coast
especially for the Yukon Delta and the Eastern Norton Sound Coast
may be major if not record- breaking. To the east, much of the
Interior will see breezy conditions with rain in valleys and mixed
rain and snow and snow over higher terrain. Blowing snow and low
visibility is likely across the eastern North Slope Friday and
Friday night. High winds are expected through the Alaska Range
Passes and along the northern foothills of the Alaska Range with
wind gusts developing late Saturday to over 80 mph.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Expect scattered snow showers for most areas in the
  evening/overnight.

- Temperatures will be near normal (mid 30s to low 40s) the next
  couple days, with sunny conditions tomorrow.

- A coastal storm arrives Sunday with warming temperatures, rain
  showers, and areas of gusty winds. Winds through the Alaska
  Range Passes and along the northern Foothills will increase
  Saturday afternoon with gusts to 80 mph possible by Saturday
  night.

- West Coast and Western Interior...

The Main Story:

Coastal Flood Watches and High Wind Watches have been upgraded to
Warnings for late Saturday through Monday ahead of the remnants
of Typhoon Halong.

The remnants of Typhoon Halong will make its way into the Bering
Sea on Saturday with a track slightly to the east of the previous
track. This slight change in track will have only minor impact
changes locally as this storm is very strong and may be the
strongest storm to hit the West Coast of Alaska since Ex- Typhoon
Merbok with the potential for historic water level rises in some
spots. Possible impacts consist of major coastal flooding and
erosion and power outages with south wind gusts up to 60 to 80 mph
or stronger Saturday night through Sunday night.

- Preparations for this storm need to be completed by this evning
  as conditions will rapidly deteriorate on Saturday especially
  south of the Seward Peninsula.

- Rain develops this evening over St. Lawrence Island and YK Delta
  and moves north overnight. Offshore winds gusting 30 to 50 mph
  are likely along the coast this evening through Saturday
  morning. A few snow showers are possible in the higher terrain
  above 1000ft.

- The remnants of Typhoon Halong arrives and moves north just to
  the east of St. Matthew Island Saturday night as a 945 to 950 mb
  low. The Yukon Delta will begins to see its worst impacts
  Saturday night and will continue into Monday morning. Wind
  gusts in the 80 10 100 mph will be possible along the coast and
  wind gusts to 80 mph inland in the Yukon Delta. Highest water
  levels are expected to occur Sunday afternoon to Monday
  afternoon.


- Very strong south winds move north into the Seward Peninsula by
  Sunday morning, and this is when the Bering Strait region
  begins to see their worst impacts. Water levels will rise
  through the day on Sunday and may be very high overnight Sunday
  into Monday morning.

- There is still some uncertainty with exact strength and track of
  the storm. Please continue to monitor this dangerous storm.


- North Slope and Brooks Range...

Coastal Flood Watches Issued for the next storm Sunday-Monday.

- Westerly winds gusting up to 50 mph will continue into Saturday
  morning for the eastern half of the Arctic Coast, especially
  near Kaktovik. Light snow may result in blowing snow and low
  visibility at times through Saturday morning along the Eastern
  Arctic Coast.

- Light snow in Atigun Pass continues with gusty winds at times
  through Saturday morning. Snow will pick up Saturday night in
  Atigun Pass and combined with strong winds will produce low
  visibility in blowing snow. Snow will become heavy in the
  Brooks Range on Sunday and Monday with the heaviest snow west of
  the Atigun Pass.

- The next storm, the remnants of Typhoon Halong, arrives in the
  Bering on Saturday and moves towards the Bering Strait on
  Sunday.

- Significant impacts are possible once again with erosion and
  coastal flooding being a concern once again. It is too early to
  give specific impacts, but it could be a repeat of the storm we
  just had.

- Heavy snow in the Brooks Range looks likely as well Sunday-Monday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Strong winds associated with the recent coastal storm are now a
will weaken Saturday over the eastern North Slope as the low
continues to move north and east out of the area. A large 965 mb
low over the far western Bering Sea will remain far from the
Alaska coast until mid-next week, however a warm front extending
well east from the low will bring east to southeast winds of
upwards of 40 mph to the northeastern Bering Sea as it gradually
shifts from south to north. A band of rain and snow will also
shift north with the front, with mostly rain south of the Bering
Strait and mostly snow north of the Strait, given a pre-existing
cold airmass over the northernmost parts of Alaska.

Typhoon Halong, which is currently over the Northern Pacific just
southeast of Adak as a 985 mb low will rocket to the north very
quickly as it gets caught in the southerly jet flow and undergo
extratropical transition into what will be our next major storm.
As it enters the Bering Sea, this storm will intensify to around
950 mb. The storm will ramp up winds across the eastern Bering
Sea to near Hurricane Force with gusts upwards of 80+ mph
over St. Lawrence Island, the southern coast of the Seward
Peninsula. With a more eastward track of this low wind gusts in
the 80 to 100 mph range are possible over the lower YK Delta.
This will pose a threat of severe coastal flooding to numerous
areas rivaling or exceeding Ex-Typhoon Merbok. The storm will
track north of the Bering Strait, Sunday afternoon/evening. While
weaker than over the Bering Sea, winds will still be very strong,
with sustained winds over 50 mph gusting to 70 or higher in
Kotzebue Sound and along the eastern Chukchi Sea coast. Recent
model runs continue to keep a track slightly further east, which
would cause the low- pressure center to clip the Seward Peninsula
rather than pass cleanly through the Strait, which could further
affect the magnitude of winds and water rises. After passing into
the Arctic, it will shift east and move out of the area.
Additional storms are likely to follow.

&&

...EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Monday through next Thursday.

The remnants of Typhoon Halong greatly weakened by to around 970
mb will be exiting the North Slope Monday night and Tuesday and
will be 250 nm n of PASC a yet another low pressure system
deepens in the Southwest Bering Sea and moves east along the
Aleutians to be located south of Cold Bay as a 968 mb Tuesday
afternoon. This low will bring another round of rain and wind to
the West Coast mainly south of the Seward Peninsula into
Wednesday. This low will not be anywhere near as strong as the
remnants of Typhoon Halong. Expect scatted rain/now showers over
the interior and West Coast. Low ceilings and fog will persist on
the North Slope. Another deep low will push into the southwest
Bering Sea Thursday night and Friday of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

No significant coastal hazards are expected for days 3 and 4 south
south of Kotzebue Sound, however strong winds and high water
levels will continue along the northwest and north coasts into
day 3. Conditions will improve as this low moves north into the
Beaufort Sea. Another deep low pressures system will move into the
Central Bering Sea by the end of next week. Please see
Weather.gov/AFG for ongoing Coastal Warnings and Advisories.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ801.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ802.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ825-827-847-849.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ815.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ816>818.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ820>824.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ820-821.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ803.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ822.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ824.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ825-827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ861.
&&

$$