745
FXAK69 PAFG 302249
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
149 PM AKST Thu Jan 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A front is moving up the West Coast this afternoon,
bringing blizzard conditions to the Yukon Delta. This front will
continue to move up the coast through Saturday with a number of
other hazards in effect. Tonight will be the coldest night in the
Interior of the short living cold snap before a ridge aloft begins
to build over the area. light snow from the West Coast front will
move into the Interior on Saturday with most areas seeing light
accumulations and warming temperatures. Behind this, expect strong
inversions through early next week as the ridge strengthens in
place. On the North Slope, expect near blizzard conditions near
Kaktovik to improve Friday morning with temperatures rapidly
warming back to single digits and teens above zero on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Weather Messages:

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Light snow will end over the E Interior by this afternoon. less
  than 1 inch of accumulation possible through this afternoon.

- Areas of blowing snow with low visibility will continue through
  mid day on Thursday along the Alaska Highway east of Dot Lake,
  though conditions will be improving.

- Very cold low temperatures this morning will drop further
  Friday morning as skies clear. Expect valley lows to be in the
  30s below all the way down to near 50 below. Areas at elevation
  will be 20 to 30 below.

- Temperatures moderate Saturday, especially at elevation, as a
  strong ridge builds over the area from the west. Highs in the
  hills will be back to near 0 or even a bit above on Saturday and
  valley temperatures will warm to near 10 above by Sunday. The
  Yukon Flats will remain 10 to 20 degrees colder than other
  areas.

- Breezy conditions with some blowing snow expected over Eagle
  Summit on Saturday and Saturday night.

- 1-2 inches of snow is possible across the area Saturday evening
  and overnight into Sunday as a weak shortwave moves over the top
  of the ridge.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Clear skies and cold temperatures over the area today with
  temperatures ranging from the teens below near the Yukon Delta
  well into the 40s below inland in cold valleys.

- A front will begin to impact the west coast late Thursday into
  Friday bringing another round of snow and blowing snow. Blizzard
  Warnings are in effect for Saint Lawrence Island and the Y-K
  Delta on Thursday. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. Snow and
  blowing snow will push across the Seward Peninsula late Thursday
  through Friday. Freezing drizzle is also possible beginning
  Friday night near Nome. A Winter Weather Advisory goes into
  effect Thursday afternoon for Nome and Golovin for snow and
  blowing snow, followed by freezing drizzle.

- This front should bring Blizzard conditions to Kotzebue as it
  moves north. A Blizzard Warning has been issued for there from
  Thursday evening through Saturday morning. A winter weather
  advisory for snow, blowing snow and cold wind chills will also
  be in effect for the Lower Kobuk Valley as increasing winds
  blow from there through Kotzebue.

- The band of wind will eventually turn north after it leaves the
  Kotzebue area and Saturday night to Sunday, will begin to bring
  reduced visibilities from blowing snow int the Point Hope area.
  A Winter Weather Advisory as been issued for the Western Arctic
  Coast, though should impact area south of Cape Lisburne.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Temperatures of 20s below along the coast, with 30s below in the
  Arctic Plain continuing through Friday before a significant
  warm up to above 0F temperatures once again this weekend.

- Easterly winds for Point Thomson and Barter Island continue
  today with gusts upwards of 45 mph. A Blizzard Warning is in
  effect for visibility to 1/4 mile or less through Friday
  morning.

- A front will push across the north slope over the weekend bringing
  snow and blowing snow.

Forecast Analysis and Confidence...High pressure over Interior
Alaska has built to 1043 mb centered near Bettles. An elongated
trough of surface low pressure is pushing a front north along the
West Coast. There appears to be plenty of transportable snow with
Chevak and St. Lawrence Island already reporting blizzard
conditions as of noon Thursday. This front will progress up the
coast and should bring more blowing snow across the whole
coastline, with blizzard conditions expected for Kotzebue and near
blizzard conditions for Nome this evening through early Saturday.
Remnant moisture looks to move into the Interior late Saturday
over the top of a building ridge of high pressure aloft, bringing
light snow south of the Brooks Range. A more well defined surface low
will form in the Chukchi Sea on Saturday afternoon, spreading
another front across the North Slope with light snow, west winds
and blowing snow. Expect gradual warming in the Interior beneath
the ridge with big inversions, especially overnight as areas begin
to see minimal amounts of diurnal heating during the afternoon.

For the forecast today, we made the Winter Storm Watch for Point
Hope a Winter Weather Advisory. We are expecting blowing snow
there with the front but not blizzard conditions. We also
increased ice accumulations slightly for the southern Seward
Peninsula area in line with NBM and probabilistic guidance as well
as models showing fairly robust freezing drizzle soundings. Added
a Winter Weather Advisory for the Bering Strait Coast for both
blowing snow with the frontal passage and freezing drizzle behind
it.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...A sharp ridge of high
pressure will park over Alaska late this weekend through early
next week. This will bring strong inversions with cold
temperatures in valleys and warm temperatures at higher
elevations. A few shortwaves will likely try to break down the
ridge beginning Tuesday. Precipitation from these will be mostly
limited to the West Coast. Stronger low pressure systems may
impact the West Coast toward the end of next week and may bring
light snow inland to the Interior. The highly amplified pattern
with dramatic temperature swings looks to continue.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ816.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ817.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ821.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824-826.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ825-827.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802-816-850-851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-807-856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-857-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&

$$

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