944
FXAK69 PAFG 022241
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
241 PM AKDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Winter`s chill will be noticeable for much of the region
tonight through Thursday thanks to the recent passage of an
Arctic Front. However, this will be short lived as a
disturbance over the Bering will be sending several waves of
active weather into the region over the next several days.
Southwesterly flow will help warm temperatures a bit, but will
also allow for the arrival of abundant moisture. Strong winds
and moderate to heavy rainfall will develop Thursday into the
weekend, with the potential for additional precipitation early
next week depending on where eventual storm tracks set up.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Drier conditions behind an exiting cold front should allow for
  clear skies overnight and sub-freezing temps by Thursday
  morning for much of the Interior.

- Rain chances will be on the increase from southwest to
  northeast through the day Thursday as a warm front tracks
  northwards into the region.

- An approaching atmospheric river behind the front will bring
  additional rainfall Thursday night into Friday with a second
  push of steadier rain Friday night into Saturday.

- Expected rainfall amounts Thursday through Saturday are around
  0.50 to as much as 1.50 inches for the Central Interior west
  of and including FNSB, and 0.10 to 0.50 inches east of FNSB.
  The exception to these amounts will be in the Upper Tanana
  Valley and Fortymile region, where conditions are expected to
  remain dry due to downsloping flow.

- Southwesterly flow into the Interior later this week with this
  system will lead to warming temperatures, as highs climb into
  the 50s/60s to near 70F for the Upper Tanana Valley starting
  Friday. Lows will also rise to the mid 30s to mid 40s.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Atmospheric river moisture from a strong low pressure system
  in the Bering Sea will lift northeast across the West Coast
  tonight into Thursday.  Widespread moderate to heavy rain and
  gusty winds are expected region wide with this system.

- Expected rainfall amounts through Thursday night shows around
  0.50 to 1.00 inches across Western Alaska, with locally
  higher totals at St. Lawrence Island up to around 1.25 inches.

- Winds increase tonight and Thursday out of the E/SE, shifting
  to the S/SW late Thursday into Friday as winds lessen. Peaks
  wind gusts are expected to be around 30 to 50 mph across the
  West Coast (strongest at St. Lawrence Island) and 20 to 40 mph
  for the Western Interior.

- Southerly winds over the Bering will continue to push large
  volumes of water towards Alaska`s West coast late Thursday
  through Saturday, especially for the Yukon Coast as well as
  the Norton Sound. High surf is possible in this area, with
  water levels potentially reaching 2 to 4 feet above the normal
  high tide, highest around Golovin and Elim.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Scattered rain and snow showers will continue to shift east
  across far Northern Alaska into Thursday along a series of
  cold fronts, with light additional snowfall accumulations
  favoring the Brooks Range.

- Temperatures will hold steady, remaining quite cool through
  Thursday, with highs in the 30s/40s and lows in the 20s/30s.
  High elevations of the Brooks Range tonight could drop to
  around 10-20F with wind chills down around 0-10F.

- A Bering Sea low will send a warm front into far northern
  Alaska late Thursday and Friday, with widespread light
  precipitation and warmer temperatures expected courtesy of
  southwest flow.

- Expected precipitation amounts late Thursday into Friday are
  expected to be around 0.1 to 0.50 inches in the Brooks Range,
  and a trace to 0.10 inches across the Arctic Coast/Plains.
  Light snow is also expected in the Brooks Range and Arctic
  Plains just north of the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Afternoon satellite imagery across Alaska reveals a couple of
primary centers of circulation. One is located across the
southern Beaufort where an Arctic upper closed low continues to
send shortwave energy eastwards across the Arctic coastline and
North Slope. While these impulses will continue to result in
occasional rain/snow showers through Thursday morning, this
system will get diverted to the east and weaken a bit as a north
Pacific ridge pushes north into the eastern reaches of the
state. Meanwhile, skies have started to clear across the
Interior which will lead to maximum cooling overnight tonight.
Portions of the Interior are still on track to see the first
hard freeze of the season tonight, including the Fairbanks metro
area.

The other visible circulation of note is located out over the
Bering Sea in the form of an upper low that will quickly begin
to focus impactful weather systems across the West Coast and
portions of the Interior over the next several days. As of this
writing, a warm front was ejecting northwards through the YK
Delta and bringing widespread light to moderate rainfall.
Rainfall associated with the warm front will continue to track
north and east overnight and Thursday with precipitation
reaching the Seward Peninsula by daybreak Thursday and expanding
eastwards into the western Interior as the day progresses.
Initial rainfall associated with the warm front will range from
.25" across the western Interior to between .50" and 1.00"
westwards towards the coast and the Bering Strait. But this is
just the first wave of precipitation that the Bering low will be
sending our way.

A large fetch of moisture is currently being transported
northwards in the southwest flow east of the upper low. IVT
products for the GFS and ECMWF both indicate a sustained influx
of deep moisture into western and central Alaska through
Saturday morning. While past model runs focused this moisture
channel along the immediate west coast, subsequent runs have
shown a tendency for the north Pacific ridge to weaken and
shift eastwards a bit, channeling the moisture further eastwards
into the western and central Interior. The current forecast
package has followed this trend and is now placing the highest
storm total QPF through Saturday over the central and western
Interior. While total QPF should be in the .50" to 1.50" range
over the Interior, there could be locations that actually see
upwards of 2.00" of rainfall over the next few days. While there
are no immediate hydro concerns, should rainfall wind up
excessive over the weekend, that could change. (See hydro
section below).

The other big impact from the Bering Sea low will be increased
winds. Coastal winds will be strongest tonight through Thursday
along the Yukon coast and through the Norton Sound. However
these winds will generally be from the E/SE and initially will
not cause much in the way of high water concerns. But as this
flow becomes more southerly Thursday night and into the weekend,
higher water may be realized in these areas, especially across
portions of the northern Norton Sound. As a result, a High Surf
Advisory has been issued there to account for the increase in
water levels.

Coastal Hazard Potential...

A Bering Sea low and associated warm front will move into
Western Alaska this evening into Thursday, with widespread rain
and gusty winds expected. Water levels could rise 2 to 4 feet
above the normal high tide line in the Norton Sound, and 1 to 2
feet above the normal high tide line along the Yukon Delta
Coast. Water levels are expected to peak late Thursday into
Friday and Saturday morning. Gusty east to southeast winds
Wednesday into Thursday will shift to the south to southwest
Thursday into Friday, leading to more onshore flow and the
potential for higher water levels. As a result we have issued a
High Surf Advisory for coastal areas of the eastern Norton Sound
where guidance is showing the highest water level rises at this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended will begin on Sunday as a Bering Sea low continues to
force a sustained ridge east out of our area. This system will then
remain relatively stationary within the Bering Sea until a new low
approaches Sunday evening. A low pressure system originating from
roughly 40N moves into the Bering Sea, and it will potentially form
a triple point low with the preceding Bering Sea Low. This low will
bring chances of gusty winds and another round of moderate to heavy
rainfall.

As the low pressure system approaches Alaska Sunday into Monday, the
track remains uncertain, if the storm tracks north and enters Alaska
though the YK-Delta there will be higher chances for another round
of moderate to heavy rainfall to reach the Interior. Given the
multiple rounds of rainfall this region will experience over the
next few days, this new round of rainfall could create hydro
concerns. However, if the system instead trends toward the Gulf, and
approaches Alaska from the south, the moisture associated with this
storm will be focused outside of our area. As of today, model
guidance has suggested a northerly trend of this system. This
storm`s track will remain monitored until more confidence is
understood on its strength and impact.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An exiting cold front in the Eastern Interior today will bring
clearer skies and colder temperatures across the Central and Eastern
Interior Valleys tonight. Temperatures will drop to the upper 20s to
low 30s. Any valley location with clear skies today will most
certainly drop into the 20s. Behind this front Thursday morning a
ridge will quickly move over the region. Accompanied with this ridge
is a Bering Sea low which will allow for southerly flow to develop
over the Alaska Range.

Southerly flow is expected to begin in the Alaska Range Thursday
afternoon with wind gusts up to 30 mph. These winds could
potentially extend into Saturday. This chinook flow will help to
keep the Upper Tanana Valley warmer and drier compared to the rest
of the Central/Eastern Interior. While the Central/Eastern Interior
will warm into the low 60s starting Friday, the Upper Tanana Valley
could approach 70.

While a ridge will be parked over the Eastern Interior the only dry
spot will be the Upper Tanana Valley. A warm front associated with
the Bering Sea low will be swinging through the Central Interior
Thursday night. This warm front will stall over the region keeping
widespread heavy rainfall continuing through the weekend. The
Central Interior including Fairbanks could see 1" to 2" of rainfall
through the end of the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A strong push of moisture across the Western and Central
Interior is expected over the next couple of days. Rainfall
totals 1 to 2 inches between Fairbanks, Bettles, and McGrath
will be possible so expect fairly decent rises in local streams
and rivers with sandbars potentially covered. Exact location of
these higher amounts remain uncertain as ensemble members show a
wide range of totals due to varying storm tracks, but models
are currently showing the area of heaviest rainfall in the lower
Tanana River Basin and the middle Yukon. If the heaviest totals
shift east towards the Chena Basin, there may be concerns for
FNSB.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 11 AM AKDT Saturday
     for AKZ822-824.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ801-805.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ802-852.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ808-809-855.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ816-850.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT
     Thursday for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT
     Thursday for PKZ854.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Laney
KEY MESSAGES...Laney
SHORT TERM.....Laney
LONG TERM......Donner
COASTAL........Laney
FIRE WEATHER...Dennis
HYDROLOGY......Lewis