522
FXAK69 PAFG 301328
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
528 AM AKDT Sat May 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper level trough supports a cold front moving over Northern
Alaska and bringing scattered showers north of the Alaska Range
through the weekend. An upper level high, currently over Siberia,
is expected to move east and push the low and any associated
moisture out of Northern Alaska. As broad ridging sets in, a
gradual warming trend is expected for early next week with much of
the Interior and West Coast reaching high temperatures in the 70s
by Tuesday. This pattern change will bring drier and warmer
conditions for most of Northern Alaska through the upcoming week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across
  the southern Interior this afternoon ahead of and along the
  front. Thunderstorm coverage decreases behind the front, with
  the highest chances for lightning in the Upper Tanana Valley and
  lower Kuskokwim Valley through the weekend.

- While temperatures remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s through
  the weekend, a gradual warming trend is expected to begin early
  next week, driving high temperatures into the 70s by Tuesday.

- Scattered showers remain likely over the Alaska Range and Tanana
  Valley region for this afternoon as a cold front continues to
  traverse north. Chances for showers will decrease throughout the
  weekend and into early next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the
  southern Interior and lower Kuskokwim Valley this afternoon as
  the front moves south. Showers and thunderstorm chances decrease
  through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.

- Low visibilities and low cloud ceilings are likely to persist
  during the overnight hours throughout the weekend.

- Temperatures will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s through the
  weekend before steadily increasing to around 70F in the valleys
  by Tuesday as a gradual warming trend begins.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- A gradual warming trend is expected for early next week with
  high temperatures along the Southern Brooks Range reaching the
  60s.

- On Sunday, winds will begin to strengthen through the Brooks
  Range passes with gusts from 30 to 40 mph. These stronger winds
  are expected to last through Monday night.

- A clearing trend is expected for much of the Arctic Coast
  through the weekend with weakening winds and offshore flow as
  the upper level ridge approaches.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Monday.

A 1010 mb low in the Gulf of Alaska continues to support broad
scale troughing over most of Northern Alaska through Saturday
night into Sunday morning. A 1020 mb high is currently hovering
over Siberia and is expected to move eastward over the next few
days, pushing the low out of the area through the weekend. A cold
front, associated with the low, has been making its way over
Northern Alaska, bringing scattered showers to most of the Alaska
Range and Tanana Valley as well as surrounding areas.
Precipitation over higher terrain is likely to fall as snow. This
cold front will proceed to move north throughout the weekend and
will likely reach the Brooks Range by Monday morning. Around this
time, upper level ridging will begin pushing this moisture out of
the area, allowing drier conditions to settle in by Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week. The ECMWF lightning flash density product
depicts the highest chances of lightning over the Alaska Range
Saturday afternoon. Starting Sunday afternoon, thunderstorm
chances move north along the Alcan Border with most chances likely
over the Yukon Territory.

The aforementioned high pressure system will bring a pattern
change, with warmer and drier conditions for many regions south of
the Brooks Range. The Fairbanks area, Yukon Flats, Alaska Range,
Western Interior, and portions of the West Coast are expected to
see high temperatures reach the low to mid 70s by Tuesday next
week. 850 mb temperatures show prominent warm air advection during
this time. The Brooks Range acts as a barrier, with most of the
North Slope expected to remain in the 30s to 40s range.
Southwesterly winds are also likely to ramp up over high terrain
in the Interior throughout the day on Monday, with sustained winds
around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain confined to the Upper
Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country on Saturday, with activity
across the region expected to steadily diminish through Monday as
the current low pressure system exits to the southeast. While
localized wetting rains are possible in these convective areas near
the Canadian border, the Interior Valleys will remain dry with
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s and minimum RH values in
the 30 percent range. Surface winds will be generally light and from
the north on Saturday, particularly across the Yukon Flats and
Eastern Interior, before shifting southwesterly and increasing
Sunday into Monday. Peak wind gusts near 30 mph are expected along
the Dalton Highway and White Mountain summits, which will mix down
into the adjacent valleys each afternoon to produce locally gusty
conditions. A significant pattern change arrives Tuesday into
Wednesday as a strong ridge builds over the state, pushing high
temperatures into the mid to upper 70s and dropping minimum RH
values into the 20 percent range for most of the Central and Eastern
Interior. Along the West Coast, low clouds and fog will persist
through the weekend, while inland temperatures across the Western
Interior trend toward 70 degrees by Tuesday.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Tuesday through Friday.

Confidence going into the extended period is medium right now. The
main reason is because of an upper level trough moving across the
Arctic Coast on Tuesday. The ECMWF is by far the outlier with this
trough, taking it to the western Brooks Range then cutting off into
an upper low, keeping the ridge well to the west over Siberia. The
GFS rides the trough up and over the Brooks Range, then into Canada
relatively quickly. Nonetheless, a Siberian ridge will begin to
intrude on Tuesday bringing much drier weather and warmer
conditions. This ridge should force the aforementioned trough into
Canada by Tuesday afternoon potentially allowing for an influx of
warmer 850mb temperatures by mid-late week. This is where the
uncertainty comes in. The GFS is most bullish with the ridge,
keeping it strong and pushing it east, thus bringing very warm,
above normal 850mb temperatures, around 5-10C+, across much of the
Interior by Wednesday. The CMC and ECMWF show a different solution
aloft with a ridge building in but keeping it farther west, then
being overtaken rapidly by a trough in the Arctic, allowing for
northerly flow into the Interior. This would keep the warmest
temperatures south and east towards the AlCan Border. We are leaning
more towards a GFS solution given strength of the ridge, and model
consistency over the last several days. As of now, expect warmer
temperatures with very dry conditions by the middle of next week
with the next chances for precipitation being sometime around Friday
or next weekend.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM AKDT Fri May 29 2026/

.HYDROLOGY...
Sagavanirktok River: Some overflowing is occurring; however,
breakup along the Sag River has not begun yet. High temperatures
are expected to increase to around the mid to upper 30s Monday and
Tuesday before dropping below normal going into the late week.
Near the Sag River source on the north Brook Range, high
temperatures could reach the mid 50s by Monday and Tuesday, with
snow levels reaching upwards of 4000 ft. Again, temperatures look
to moderate going into the late week but continue to be above
freezing.

Yukon River: River Watch has concluded as of 8 AM Wednesday. Ice
continues to move through the channels into the mouth with relative
ease and with upstream ice moving unhindered. Residents should still
use caution near the banks as the ice run continues to be very
dynamic and water levels can fluctuate quickly.

All Flood Watches and Warnings have expired.

Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest
hydro information.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Srinivasan - Synopsis, Key Messages, Forecast Analysis
Satcher - Fire Weather
Bianco - Extended