636
FXAK69 PAFG 132346
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Typhoon Halong continue to weaken and move
rapidly northeast and is currently located near Banks Island as a
984 mb low. Behind the low Light westerly and northwesterly winds
remain over Kotzebue Sound and the the Northwest Coast as well as
the Arctic Coast where Coastal Flood Advisories remain in place
through Tuesday morning from Kotzebue to Utqiagvik. As the winds
diminish water levels are expected to return to normal tidal
range. Unsettled but much more tranquil weather will continue for
the next several days over Northern Alaska. Weak low pressure
systems in the Chukchi Sea, the Western and Northern Bering Sea as
well as the Interior will dominate. Temperatures are expected to
remain near or slightly above normal through the week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
Unsettled weather will continue with light rain or rain and snow
showers in interior valley locations and light snow at elevations
above 1500 ft. Minor snow accumulations are possible over
Interior highway summits. Winds will remain light with the
exception of gusty southeast Tanana Valley Jet with winds SE 25 to
35 mph with some gusts to 45 mph near Delta Junction beginning
late Tuesday night and Wednesday Morning. Winds will also increase
through the Alaska Range Passes but will remain below advisory
levels Tuesday night and Wednesday. High will be in the low to
mid 40s in the Southern Interior and in upper 30s and low 40s in
the Northern Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...
After a warm, wet and windy week a much more tranquil weather
pattern is emerging through the end of the week. Expect mostly
cloudy skies with occasional rain and snow shower through much of
the week. Winds will remain light in all areas. Offshore winds
will increase Tuesday night and will continue through the day
Wednesday along the coast with wind speeds generally less than 25
mph with isolated areas with gust to 35 mph. High temperatures
will be in the low 40s with low temperatures in the mid to upper
30s.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
A low pressure system in the Chukchi Sea will produce unsettled
conditons with southwest flow. Expect mostly cloudy conditons and
periods of snow showers with light winds expected through the
week. High temperatures are expected to be in the 30s on the
plains and 20s in the Brooks Range. Low temperatures will be in
the upper 20s along the coast and low 20s to mid teens on the
plains and in the Brooks Range.


&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A deep 500 mb longwave trough remains over the Bering Sea and
Western Alaska with multiple shortwaves moving through the
pattern. A strong upper level ridge will weaken and push to the
east over BC as the trough over the Bering Sea digs into the
Central Aleutians and become negatively tilted on Wednesday while
weak ridging builds into the Interior. Favorable upper level
environment in the Eastern Aleutians will produce very rapid
deepening of a surface low pressure in the vicinity of Cold Bay
on Wednesday. Fronts rotating around this low will move over the
Alaska Range and Southwest Alaska and will produce another round
of strong winds through the Alaska Range and another round of wind
and rain in the Western Interior and West Coast. Winds will be
offshore with minimal Coastal Impacts Expected. Light winds and
unsettled weather with rain and snow showers in the Interior and
snow showers on the North Slope.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A fairly active pattern is looking to continue across the state
as the Bering Sea looks to remain under a trough pattern. Models
continue to track multiple systems coming across the Southern Bering
Sea. This will continue to bring rain and snow showers across the
state. The main driver for the extended forecast will be the broad,
elongated troughing stretching from Western Alaska to Siberia. As of
right now, there is one group of systems at the end of the weekend
to early next week that is looking to move across the Aleutians and
move into Bristol Bay. If the large trough pattern is to change,
some of the tracks can be shifted with later model runs. These
systems will continue to be monitored over the next few days to see
how they manifests.

Extended - Twombly

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
An active pattern will continue over the Southern Bering Sea with
low pressure exiting Bristol Bay. This will produce mainly off
shore flow and will minimize Coastal Hazards.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ801>803.
     Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ815>817.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-861.
&&

$$

CCC