836
FXAK69 PAFG 051347
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
547 AM AKDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain continues to be the big story across much of the northern
AK through the holiday weekend as an active pattern sends
system after system into the Interior, with the forecast kicking
off with an atmospheric river continuing to move through Alaska
on Saturday and periods of moderate to heavy rain expected as a
result. While a brief lull in the widespread rain is possible
on Sunday in the wake of one system, another system will swiftly
move to replace it on Monday, followed by still another low
which arrives Tuesday. Another brief break is possible for parts
of Wednesday and Thursday, before a front sweeps in from the
Bering on Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Widespread light through the first part of the day Saturday   as a
combination of a lingering atmospheric river and   approaching upper
disturbance track north through much of the   Interior.

- Additional rainfall of 0.25 to as much as 1.00 inch will be
possible through Saturday, when the heaviest rainfall begins   to
taper off.

- Series of systems continue to move through during the rest of  the
week, bringing rounds of rain to northern Alaska.

- Main stem rivers are expected to see noticeable rises over the
next few days, but flooding is not expected to be an issue.
  However feeder streams and rivers could see water levels  nearing
bankfull in a few locations.

- A few showers possible over the forty mile country area, but
  overall drier weather persists for this portion of the
  Interior.

- Warmer conditions are expected to return for the Sunday and Monday
timeframe with highs back in the upper 50`s and lower  60`s, even a
bit warmer in locations not impacted by rainfall.

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Occasional showers will continue to track across the region  over
the next few days, but total additional rainfall will  remain rather
light.

- Higher water levels are expected once again throughout the Norton
Sound through high tide Saturday morning. Afterwards   more normal
tide cycles are expected through the region for a   few days.

- Past Saturday, periods of light rain interspersed with periods  of
drier weather expected through the upcoming week as  multiple
systems move up from the SW.

- Warmer than normal temperatures will continue across the   region
through the weekend with highs generally in the 50`s to  near 60
further inland.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Bands of precipitation will continue to push north over the Brooks
Range through Sunday. Most precipitation will be light  and
predominantly in the form of rain.

- Snowfall through the weekend will be confined to elevations
generally above 5500 feet with the possibility of mixed rain  and
snow at times near the Dalton through Atigun Pass.

- Low clouds and occasional showers will occur near the Arctic
coastline through Saturday. However temperatures will be  warming a
bit above seasonal normals with readings in the   40`s and 50`s
throughout much of the North Slope.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The active weather pattern which has brought widespread periods of
rain along with high surf to parts of the western Coast looks
set to continue through the duration of the forecast time frame.

Radar and satellite imagery show that the initial atmospheric
river has begun to slowly move E as the ridge over the Gulf of
AK which had been blocking it is displaced. What`s left of the
plume of moisture over the interior will be cut off through the
day on Saturday, as an already forming low over the Wood Hill
Mountains moves NE through the day. Expect generally stratiform
rain for most areas south of the Brooks Range with this system,
although a few thunderstorms may be possible for upland parts of
the forty mile country. Upwards of another additional 0.25 to
1.00 inch of rain will likely fall with this final surge from
the atmospheric river before it heads past the Brooks Range by
late Saturday with much of the remaining moisture being wrung
out by the topography.

Sunday will feature a lull in the most active part of the
pattern. Between the departing low exiting into the Arctic
Ocean, and another low beginning to enter the Kuskokwim Delta
area, the remainder of Northern AK will see precip relegated to
scattered showers - with some areas liable to see some dry
weather in a brief but welcome respite. Anticipate some fog
development Sunday night into Monday morning with this brief
lull, especially anywhere that skies attempt to clear. This
respite will come to an end as said new low moves up to the NE
from the Kuskokwim Delta. The newest low itself looks fairly
disorganized - a symptom of the fact that its one of multiple
low level circulations vying for dynamic support along a week
trough axis stretching from the Gulf of Anadyr to the Gulf of
Alaska. Consequently, it is likely that the low will have some
difficulty holding together as it crosses the Alaska Range.
Nevertheless, do anticipate a reasonable slug of moisture with
this next system, and so even as the low itself falls apart,
think that chances of periods of rain for the Brooks Range
southward remain fairly high.

Temperatures through the short term will be on an overall upward
trend, as each low brings with a surge of warm air advection -and
without any significant cold air advection being rapped in along
these systems NW flanks, expect that the marine airmass will manage
to anchor itself across most of the Interior as even the North Slope
will see some level of temperature recovery. Lows will remain
solidly above freezing for everywhere except for areas of
significant elevation as snow levels rise to 3-6k feet, with 4k+
ft for areas south of the North Slope.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The very active pattern continues, as the storm track continues to
favor steering systems into Northern AK rather than the more
commonplace Anchorage or SE AK tracks which are common around this
time of year. Another system takes shape on Tuesday, as a deepening
shortwave becomes a fully developed system and races up into our
area. The low - between 995 and 1000 mb, is likely to make landfall
somewhere in the Kuskokwim Delta Area before moving NE. Expect any
chances of high surf to be mainly relegated to areas further South,
towards locations like Bethel.

Chances of rain persist even after this, with the next brief lull in
the active pattern arriving through Wednesday, as a weak ridge
builds in the wake of the system ahead of yet another low and
its accompanying front which are set to arrive between late
Thursday and Friday. Ensembles indicate elevated IVT values with
this late week system consistent with a plume of moisture, and
think that another wet and rainy weekend is possible, although
at this time, confidence in timing or in precip totals remains
low.

Coastal Hazard Potential... High Surf Advisories will remain in
effect for portions of the Norton Sound through Saturday morning for
elevated water levels of 2 to 4 feet around the time of high tide.
In general winds across much of the west coast have diminished, but
there remain a large fetch of water being transported towards the
Norton Sound. Highest levels will likely be near Golovin and Elim. A
return to more normal tide levels is expected later in the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An active and increasingly wet pattern will continue across Northern
Alaska through the weekend. An atmospheric river will continue to
bring periods of rain to much of the Interior today into Saturday,
followed by continued troughing across the Western portion of the
state, bringing additional opportunities for precipitation through
the week. Fairbanks NSB and west are expected to be the primary
recipients of the most consistent precipitation, however areas East
are expected to see some scattered showers as continued shortwave
disturbances wrap around the ridge axis that remains over the
southeast.

Across the Eastern Interior, the Upper Tanana Valley will remain the
area of greatest concern. Warmer temperatures and relatively lower
humidities keep areas east of Tanacross with RHs in the upper
30s make the Upper Tanana Valley an outlier amidst the
widespread precip the rest of the interior is experiencing.
However, a shortwave disturbance is expected to make its way up
and over the ridge axis Saturday morning bringing chances for
isolated showers through the first half of the day.
Thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon as another shortwave
reaches the area during peak heating. Thunderstorms are expected
to remain mostly confined to the higher elevations of Fortymile
Country, and will bring localized heavy rainfall and gusty
outflow winds. Drier conditions then prevail through early next
week, with a few scattered showers possible as lows pass to the
West.

Winds are generally expected to remain light across most of the
state, with the strongest winds expected along the West Coast and
through the Alaska Range passes. Strong gusts through the passes
bring potential for Delta Junction to see gusts up to 30 mph on
Monday night into Tuesday morning, however a potential round of
precip late Monday into Tuesday could raise minimum RHs to the
upper 50s to low 60s helping mitigate potential wind driven fire
risk.

Temperatures remain moderate, with the highest temperatures expected
to in the low 70s in the Upper Tanana on Saturday before
cooling back into the 60s through the week. Cloud cover is
expected to continue across the state, keeping temperatures
moderated into the week.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A strong push of moisture from the West Coast to the Central
Interior will wind down past Saturday. Rainfall totals through
Saturday of 1 to 2 inches are expected between the Yukon Flats,
Bettles, and McGrath with locally higher amounts in the Upper
Kuskokwim Valley especially. Expect fairly decent rises in local
streams and rivers with sandbars potentially covered, but there are
no immediate concerns for the main stem rivers in the area.
Average return intervals of 2 to 5 years have ben observed at some
sites, and expect ARIs of 2 to 5 years to remain possible
throughout much of the Central and Western Interior through the
weekend. While heavier rainfall has fallen in the Chena Basin
than previously forecast, river rises should still remain within
banks. While rain continues through next week, anticipate that
after Saturday the day to day totals will drop significantly
across northern AK.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory until 11 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ822-
     824.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ812-
     813-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ814-
     815.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ814-
     815-860.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT this
     afternoon for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ861.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ861.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS.......SPANN
KEY MESSAGES...LANEY/SPANN
SHORT TERM.....SPANN
LONG TERM......SPANN
COASTAL........LANEY/SPANN
FIRE WEATHER...CRUZ/SPANN
HYDROLOGY......LEWIS/SPANN