505
FXAK69 PAFG 212224
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
224 PM AKDT Mon Apr 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A band of precipitation over the Norton Sound will bring snow
showers to the southern Seward Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island
this afternoon. Generally quiet weather in the Interior and North
Slope with easterly and northeasterly winds increasing Wednesday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

-High temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s for most of the
 region, except the Tanana Valley from Fairbanks south and east to
 the border where highs will be in the upper 40s to near 50
 through the end of the week. Lows will dip below freezing for
 most of the region resulting in a freeze thaw cycle through the
 end of the week.

-Scattered rain showers return to the Fortymile Country and upper
 Tanana Valley this afternoon. These will be mostly confined to
 higher terrain, but may move into the valleys after forming.

-Northeast winds pick up Wednesday, especially across Interior
 Summits. Sustained values up to 30 mph near summits may mix down
 into the valleys as afternoon gusts up to 25 mph Wednesday
 afternoon and evening.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-A band of rain/snow showers currently over the Norton Sound
 reaches St. Lawrence Island and the southern Seward Peninsula
 this afternoon and will last through Tuesday morning. Additional
 showers are expected to be mostly snow along the main band. Some
 isolated rain showers and patches of fog are expected through
 tonight. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches expected
 in the Nulato Hills. 2 to 3 inches of snow are expected for St.
 Lawrence Island where snow showers will last into Tuesday night.

-Northeast winds decrease through Tuesday. Northerly winds then
 increase Wednesday through the Bering Strait and across St.
 Lawrence Island with gusts up to 35 mph.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

-Easterly winds 10 to 15 mph shift northeasterly Tuesday and
 increase to 20 mph Wednesday. Winds will be stronger on the
 northwestern coast from Point Lay to Point Hope with sustained
 speeds reaching 20 mph Tuesday and up to 30 mph Wednesday.

-Temperatures remain steady through midweek with highs in the
 single digits above and lows near 0.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

A band of precipitation currently in the Norton Sound will reach
St. Lawrence Island and the southern Seward Peninsula this
afternoon. The low supporting this band is currently over St.
Matthew Island and will be pulled east over southwestern Alaska
overnight tonight and then south into the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday
afternoon. Weak ridging in the Interior moves over the Chukchi Sea
Coast Tuesday and then stretches into a weak ridge between the low
moving into the Gulf and the next system rolling east along the
Aleutian archipelago. This next system has significantly better
model agreement than the last few days and will slowly move along
the southern Bering Sea from Thursday to Saturday. This will
support a broad trough of low pressure over northern Alaska and
the Bering Sea allowing for chances of light precipitation along
the West Coast from the Seward Peninsula south. A high pressure
region currently in eastern Siberia will move north into the high
Arctic and support broad moderate to weak east and northeast winds
across northern Alaska Wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Model agreement is slightly better than the past few days and
shows the slow filling of a broad area of low pressure. The
details are still quite poor, but the overall pattern suggests
benign weather with occasional showers and seasonal temperatures
for the end of the week and beginning of next week. Forecast
consistency for this period is still poor, so confidence is only
moderate in this remaining the case through the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Stokes