104
FXAK69 PAFG 231505
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
605 AM AKST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Strong winds continue across the North Slope with areas of
blowing snow and reduced visibility. Winds begin to diminish
tonight into Monday across the North Slope, though some gusty
winds may persist southward over the highway summits. Snow
spreads east across the Brooks Range today and then into the
White Mountains with accumulations up to 4 inches possible. Light
snow reaches the valleys and basins as well, with lesser amounts
expected. Snow chances increase across the YK Delta early to mid
week. Above-average temperatures persist through the coming week
south of the Brooks Range. Remaining cold across the North Slope.

.DISCUSSION...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Gusty winds are possible across the highway summits with
  periodic blowing snow.
- Snow spreads eastward today.
- Above average temperatures continue though the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Breezy northeasterly winds at times through much of the coming
  week.
- Snow chances increase across the YK Delta early to mid week

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Gusty winds continue across the North Slope, gradually
  diminishing on Monday.
- Areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility.
- Snow at times throughout the Brooks Range today.

Forecast Discussion and Analysis...

Strong high pressure over the Arctic Ocean is maintaining a tight
MSLP gradient across the northern half of the state. A potent
barrier jet has developed resulting in gusty surface winds along
the North Slope. Areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility are
likely today, and the current suite of Winter Weather Advisories
will be maintained. Guidance shows the high lifting northwestward
allowing the gradient to relax a bit overnight. Winds are then
expected to tonight along with the threat for significant blowing
snow.

A mid-level vort max is observed over the Brooks Range this
morning and appears quite nicely on IR Satellite. This feature is
expected to trek eastward through the day today, with light snow
spreading eastward along with it. Snow reaches the US Canadian
border by mid day, before spreading southward into the White
Mountains and eastern Tanana Valley. Guidance has backed off a bit
on snowfall around the Fairbanks area though some light snow still
seems probable. Snow may persist into Monday before a cold dry air
mass arrives from the north bringing an end to precipitation
potential.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...

Ensemble guidance has been trending towards the idea of weak
ridging taking shape over central Alaska by Tuesday. Any active
weather may be confined to our far southwest as low pressure
centers lift northwestward out of the Gulf of Alaska. Snow
chances increase across the YK Delta this week. Periodic strong
winds across the North Slope and Bering Strait appear likely at
times as the Arctic High re-establishes itself.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801-802.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813>815-859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860-861.
&&

$$

Eckhoff