848
FXAK69 PAFG 232341
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
341 PM AKDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Temperatures will be their lowest today, ranging between the
  50s to mid 60s before warming slightly this week.

- Showery conditions continue through Sunday in the Eastern
  Interior. There is a slight chance for an isolated
  thunderstorm or two to develop Sunday as well.

- Rainfall returns to the Central and Eastern Interior Monday
  through Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Another storm approaches the West Coast Sunday and is
  expected to bring yet another round of gusty winds, moderate
  to heavy rainfall, and locally higher tides. High Surf
  Advisories have been issued for the Southern Seward Peninsula,
  Norton Sound Coast, and Yukon Delta Coast.

- Rainfall accumulations are expected to range from 0.25 to as
  high as 1 inch throughout the West Coast and Western Interior
  through Monday with locally higher amounts along the Southern
  Seward Peninsula.

- Cool temperatures expected with highs in the 50s to near 60
  through much of the upcoming week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Gusty winds are expected across the North Slope as a low moves
  northeast across the Western Arctic Coast. Generally southerly
  winds are expected, more easterly along the Eastern Arctic
  Coast, more southwesterly west of Point Barrow. Winds peak
  Monday and then slowly weaken through Tuesday.

- Temperatures warm across the North Slope Monday and Tuesday
  with highs in the 50s to low 60s.

- Rain showers are expected along the Western Arctic Coast
  Monday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A moderately strong Bering Sea low moves northeast along the
West Coast now through Tuesday. This system brings gusty winds
to the West Coast, Western Arctic Coast, and Brooks Range,
moderate to heavy rainfall to the West Coast, Brooks Range, and
most of the Interior, and high surf to coastal communities from
Nome to Hooper Bay. Higher pressure follows which briefly
improves conditions before another storm approaches late
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At the start of the extended forecast period, Sunday, the
remnants of a front that had stalled near the Central Interior
start to slowly push east as they scatter. Showery conditions
are expected across the Eastern Interior through Sunday. High
pressure builds over the Western Interior as a ridge attempts to
build into the area. Along the West Coast a moderately strong
low pressure system around 990 millibars moves northeast through
the Gulf of Anadyr towards the Chukchi Sea by Monday morning.
This low is bringing strong southeasterly winds across the West
Coast Sunday which will then shift southwesterly overnight into
Monday. High Surf is expected along the Coastline from Hooper
Bay north to Nome during the Monday high tide which may cause
some beach erosion. As the low moves northeast along the Arctic
Coast winds increase along the Arctic Coast and through the
Brooks Range. A front on the south side of the low gets caught
in the Interior as the low moves north. This front becomes
disorganized late Monday and becomes a messy area of low
pressure that will slowly move east across the Interior through
midweek.

As this messy lower pressure area enters the Central Interior,
an area of enhanced vorticity moves out of the Bering Sea and
reinforces the low pressure region over the Interior. This area
of vorticity follows another upper level low that is unable to
form a distinct surface low. The additional energy from this
feature strengthens the low pressure over the Interior and
enhances precipitation over the region. This enhanced low
pressure will lead to a brief period of enhanced southerly flow
over the Alaska range Tuesday. Drying from these southerly winds
combine with the enhanced moisture to cause the forecast for the
southeastern Interior to be somewhat messy and uncertain.
Showery conditions with gusty southerly winds are currently
expected, but the strength of the winds and the rain totals are
still uncertain. Behind this mess of lower pressure another weak
ridge attempts to build in from the Bering Sea ahead of yet
another large low pressure system approaching the West Coast
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At the start of the extended forecast period, late Wednesday,
pressure continues to build in the Interior which starts to push
out the showery remnants of our messy low pressure system.
Thursday another low approaches the West Coast and is expected
to track south of the Bering Strait from the northwestern Bering
towards the YK Delta region. This track is not expected to
produce any significant high water impacts, but additional
moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds are expected across much
of the West Coast and Western Interior. This system is expected
to impact that area late Thursday through Saturday with higher
pressure attempting to build in once more Sunday.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
A gale force low moves from the Gulf of Anadyr northeast through
the Chukchi sea and along the Arctic Coast Sunday through
Tuesday. As the low moves north winds shift southwesterly behind
it. A long fetch of southwesterly winds into the Norton Sound
Sunday night into Monday. Water levels peak with the high tide
Monday morning. High surf advisories have been issued for the
coast from Nome to Hooper Bay. Water levels are expected to
exceed the normal high tide line by 1.5 to 2.5 feet near the
Yukon Delta, 4 to 6 feet for the Eastern Norton Sound Coast, by
3 to 5 feet near Golovin, and by 2 to 3.5 feet near Nome. The
Tuesday high tide will be above normal as well, but not as high
as Monday with much less risk of excessive erosion. The rest of
the Coastline up to Point Barrow is also expected to see rises,
but not enough to cause any notable impacts. Special weather
statements have been issued for these areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
While much of the region remains quiet fire weather-wise, the Upper
Tanana Valley will continue to see some stronger wind gusts, lower
relative humidity values, and higher temperatures than surrounding
areas. Stronger northwest sustained winds between 5-15 mph and gusts
up to 25 mph are likely to continue along the Eastern Alaska Range
through tonight. Over the past 12 hours, some locations in the Upper
Tanana have received over 0.5" of rain, with an additional 0.05"-
0.1" expected through this evening. Showers may be accompanied by
isolated thunderstorms, with chances expected to taper off by the
late afternoon into the evening. Chances for some isolated storms
are also likely for the Yukon Flats and portions of the Forty Mile
country this afternoon into the evening as lifted index values
remain low and instability in the area is present.

Generally wetter conditions in the Upper Tanana have allowed fire
weather conditions to briefly diminish today. However, upper level
ridging builds back into the area by Monday, allowing drier
conditions and higher temperatures to return to the area. High
temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s and could surpass
70 if the forecast over-performs. Minimum relative humidity
values are expected to range in the upper 30s to mid 40s
percent, dropping by about 20 percent from today. Winds are
expected to remain light and variable with little to no chance
for isolated storms. By Tuesday, there is more confidence that
high temperatures could reach the low 70s with slightly higher
minimum relative humidity values in the 40s percent range. An
uptick in winds on Tuesday is likely as south/southwest winds
gusting up to 15 mph could channel through the Tok Cutoff as
troughing digs down from a low moving north/northeast. Moisture
from this same low currently located in the Bering Sea is
expected to reach the Upper Tanana Valley by Tuesday night,
bringing additional rain accumulations of around 0.1"-0.2".

By Wednesday, stronger northwest gusts up to 20 mph are likely to
continue over the Upper Tanana as the gradient between the high to
the south and the low to the north remains prevalent. High
temperatures are expected to cool into the upper 50s with a good
chance of exceeding 60 while minimum relatively humidity continues
to increase and is likely to reach the 50 percent range. Looking
ahead for the rest of the week, a second low is expected to move
into the Bering Sea by Thursday, reinforcing strong southerly gusts
through Tok Cutoff Thursday night into Friday morning as the low
moves east.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Through the short & long term forecast periods, a couple of wet
Gale-force lows are expected to march toward the Bering Sea
coastal area, 1 for late-weekend into early next week & the
other for late in the work-week. Both of these systems look to
bring appreciable rainfall amounts, especially for the West
Coast and Western Interior, but they are not expected to bring
any stream- flooding concerns to the region as current state of
the rivers remain low.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT
     Tuesday for AKZ822.
     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for
     AKZ824.
     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ825.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ801.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Monday for
     PKZ801-802-853-854.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ803.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Monday for
     PKZ803-852.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ804-808-810-855-856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ805-807-852.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Monday for
     PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Monday for
     PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ809-
     811.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ812-
     858.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ816-851.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ817-854.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ858.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Stokes
SYNOPSIS...Stokes
SHORT TERM...Stokes
LONG TERM...Stokes
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Stokes
FIRE WEATHER...Srinivasan
HYDROLOGY...Chambers