169
FXAK69 PAFG 030342
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
642 PM AKST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The overall unsettled pattern continues with the majority of the
region being influenced by troughing. This has allowed for some snow
to be possible, especially for portions of the Interior, as well as
along the West Coast and North Slope. Expect on and off light snow
showers to be possible. Stronger winds along the North Slope will
begin to weaken by tomorrow. There will begin a gradual cooling
trend throughout the week as there is more cold air being advected
in from the north once a ridge begins to establish itself over the
Chukchi Sea. Highs for the North Slope/Arctic Plains will fall into
the singles, and even a few locations not getting above zero by the
following weekend. There is also going to be the potential of a more
impactful area of low pressure to move in towards the end of the
week, which could result in some potentially significant snowfall
amounts within portions of the Interior and for the southeastern
slopes of the Brooks Range. This is still days out and therefore
these potential impacts will continued to be monitored in the
upcoming days.

&&

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light flurries but little accumulating snow in the Interior today.

- South flow through the Alaska Range passes may yield gusts up
  to about 35 to 40 mph through the early part of this evening.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will begin to gradually cool off
  each day this week with highs mainly in the 20s and lows mainly
  in the teens for the beginning of the week, and then highs
  generally in the teens by the second half of the week.

- Breaks in cloud cover are expected across the southeastern
  Interior and temperatures should drop into the single digits at
  night where clear skies occur.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Northerly winds over St. Lawrence Island, the Bering Strait,
  and the western capes diminish to near or below 30 mph by this
  evening. Scattered ocean effect snow showers accompany areas of
  gusty north winds.

- Areas of light snow will continue to shift west across most of
  the area through tonight. In general, 1-3 inches of additional
  snowfall are expected for most locations by Monday morning, less
  around the Kotzebue Sound and east of the Yukon. By later in
  the week, there could be potentially more significant snowfall
  amounts for portions of the Interior and Yukon Flats.

- High temperatures near 30 with lows in the low-to-mid 20s are
  expected for St. Lawrence Island. In the Western Interior, highs
  cool from near 30 today into the mid teens by Friday, with lows
  falling from near 20 into the single digits.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Northeasterly winds gusting to 30-45 mph continue into tonight
  while gradually turning easterly. The strongest gusts today will
  be near Utqiagvik and will shift toward the eastern Arctic
  coast by Tuesday. There will also be some blowing snow due to
  this, with restricted visibilities getting down to a quarter of
  a mile at times.

- Isolated to scattered snow showers are possible across the
  North Slope throughout the evening, mostly across the Arctic
  plains and points eastward, with snow elsewhere mostly limited
  to light flurries.

- Cloudy skies and above normal temperatures continue through
  early this week. A colder air mass drops highs into the teens
  and single digits in the Arctic plains and eastern Arctic coast,
  with lows in the single digits or lower by Wednesday into late
  week. Portions of the Arctic Plains could have highs below zero
  by the following weekend.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The overall area of broad troughing currently over a majority of the
state, with embedded waves and areas of weak instability has allowed
for a generally unsettled pattern, and has kept a lot of lower level
clouds and fog socked into some of the Interior, along for some
accumulating light snow. Low pressure to the southeast, and high
pressure over the Chukchi Sea, This ridge axis will shift more to
the east and over the Beaufort Sea, which will allow for an omega
blocking pattern to materialize as there is a deepening trough over
western Canada, which will eventually extend back over into eastern
portions of the mainland. As this does, more colder air will be
ushered in from the north and result in a gradual cooldown
throughout the week, given the colder northerly flow. The EPS and
GEFS ensemble anomalies also confirm this, showing the spread in
comparison to averages (which has been a much large spread in recent
days) beginning to tighten up more in terms of dispersion. Towards
the end of the week, the deterministic models have been hinting at
the potential for there to be a more significant major shortwave
trough moving up into the gulf of Alaska, which may bring some areas
of the Interior a more substantial amount of snowfall, as warm
southerly flow ahead of this system overrides much relatively colder
air at the surface. The EC`s EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) has also
been outlining an area of potentially impactful for portions of the
Interior and Yukon Flats. The evolution of this major shortwave
trough will continue to be the focus for this week.

&&

HYDROLOGY... No concerns at this time. Freeze up is beginning across
the area and is expected to continue as colder temperatures persist.

&&

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
At the start of the extended forecast period, Wednesday night, a
large low in the Gulf of Alaska is sending fronts of moisture
north into the Alaska Range and around it into the Southeastern
Interior. These fronts are expected to bring widespread snowfall
across the state similar to the snowfall seen late last week.
This snowfall is expected to develop in a colder pattern and thus
fluffier, less dense snowfall is expected. There is currently low
confidence in snowfall amounts, but areas of up to 6 inches is
possible Thursday through Saturday, especially in the White
Mountains and other more elevated areas. Another low moves east
along the Aleutians early next week which will likely bring
additional snow and gusty winds to the West Coast and parts of the
Western Interior.

-Stokes

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812>815-858>860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813>815-859-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Stewey
Extended- Stokes