799
FXAK69 PAFG 212053
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1253 PM AKDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler week is on tap with areas of rain and showers across
Northern Alaska. In the Central and Eastern Interior, it is
leaning drier through the middle of the week while most of the
rain ends up along the West Coast and Western Interior. On the
North Slope, there will be showers and isolated storms with near
to slightly above normal temperatures today.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Isolated to scattered rain showers through the week with high
  temperatures in the 60s to near 70.

- Breezy southwest winds with gusts up to 35 mph in the higher
  terrain of the Interior, and 20 to 30 mph in the valleys today,
  then weakening through the day tomorrow.

- Numerous rounds of rain in SE AK and the Eastern AK Range
  Wednesday through the end of the week. There may be areas that
  receive multiple days of rain with heavier showers, especially
  near the AlCan Border.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Periods of rain, rain showers and breezy conditions persist
  today.
- Additional rainfall today: 0.10 to 0.25" along the coast, up
   to 0.40" in the higher terrain and around 0.10" or less in the
   Interior today.

- A heavier round of rain in SW AK will move in Wednesday
  afternoon and continue through Thursday afternoon.

- Total Rainfall through Thursday PM: 0.25" in the Interior,
   0.50 to 1.00" along the Coast and in the YK Delta, up to 1.25"
   in the Nulato Hills and Bendeleben Mountains.

- Cool temperatures persist through the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Widespread rain showers in the Brooks Range and North Slope
  today and tomorrow.
- Isolated thunderstorms from the northern foothills to coast
   this afternoon.

- Drier weather develops on Wednesday with cooler temperatures in
  the 40s/50s lasting into the weekend.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Similar to yesterday, a low in the Bering Strait is providing
southwesterly flow to much of Northern Alaska. Rain showers, wind
and cool temperatures should be expected across Northern Alaska
today and tomorrow at least. The low in the Strait will eventually
drop south and bring another round of heavier rain into SW AK on
Wednesday and continue through Thursday. Rainfall totals in SW AK
will be around a half inch to an inch.

Otherwise, the low will move into the Gulf thereafter with chances
for rain in easterly flow along the Eastern Alaska Range and SE
Interior. The rain may be heavy at times, especially on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wet and cool in Western Alaska, Brooks Range and North Slope
through midweek. Isolated thunderstorms possible today,
especially along the North Slope. Scattered showers remain over
the Central and Eastern Interior today and tomorrow with the
slightest of slight chances for a storm over the AlCan Border
today. Otherwise, wetting rains persist in Western Alaska with
highs in the 50s/60s through Wednesday, and very low chances for
wetting rains in the Central/Eastern Interior through Wednesday.
On Thursday, the chance for showers increases a bit in the
Interior, especially SE and in the Eastern AK Range where there
can be heavy rain at times.

Looking towards the end of the week and into this weekend, there
are no signs for a big "season ending rain" event in the
Central/Eastern Interior. In fact, it is looking potentially warm,
dry and windy in the Interior on Sunday and Monday with highs
possibly reaching the mid/upper 70s with dry northeast winds.
There is some uncertainty with this but it appears as if a high
will develop over the Arctic with a low in the Gulf. This would
bring at least a couple of days of warm, dry, windy conditions.
All of this to say, summer isn`t over yet, and neither is fire
season.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The low in the Bering Strait will will drop into the Gulf on
Friday bringing rain chances to the southern and especially
Eastern Interior/AK Range. At this time, there may begin to be a
warmup on the North Slope as a ridge well to the northwest in the
Chukchi Sea gradually slides east. By Saturday, the ridge will be
over the Arctic and North Slope. This, coupled with the low in the
Gulf may provide warm, east/northeast flow to the Interior and
North Slope as well as thunderstorm chances. It is unclear how
long these conditions last, but there is a realistic possibility
that we get warm/dry for several days before cooling down again.
This doesn`t look like anything too crazy or record breaking as
highs may only be as high as 80, but it will be a bit of a change
from what we`re seeing this week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-803-852-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$

Bianco