549
FXAK69 PAFG 122247
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
247 PM AKDT Tue May 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Spring will be in full swing south of the Brooks Range for the
next several days as temps climb into above normal territory.
Meanwhile winter will still be hanging on across the North Slope.
The next few days will see strong east winds and some blowing snow
near the Arctic coast while elsehwere mainly dry conditions are
expected. There will be the occasional shower at times throughout
central portions of the state as some energy spins north from a
series of storms that will move through the Aleutians and into
the southern Bering Sea, but widespread stormy weather will be on
hold for a while.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Easterly winds up of 15 to 25 mph will be possible over higher
  terrain of the Central and Northeastern Interior, and could
  last into later this week before weakening.

- Much warmer temperatures are expected the next few days, with
  highs today rising into the low to mid 60s in the Middle and
  Upper Tanana Valleys today, with upper 60s possible across the
  far eastern Interior.

- Mainly dry for the next couple of days, however some scattered
  showers will be possible near the Alaska Range slopes and across
  the Upper Tanana Valley Wednesday and Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A few light showers will be possible through Wednesday across
  the YK Delta and the Norton Sound.

- Scattered thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper
  Kuskokwim Valley into parts of the Western Interior Wednesday
  afternoon.

- Gusty north winds of 25 to 35 mph will be possible Wednesday
  along the western Seward Penn and throughout the Bering Strait.

- Warming temperatures are expected the next few days, with highs
  will rising into the mid to upper 50s across the Western
  Interior and the Interior Seward Peninsula.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Gusty winds will continue across the North Slope today. Winds
  will be strongest along the Western and Eastern Arctic Coast
  where winds could peak upwards of 40 mph.

- Winds will remain elevated along the coast through at least
  Wednesday before gradually ending from west to east through the
  Friday. These winds will lead to areas of blowing snow which
  could reduce visibility at times.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Clearing skies overnight led to a rather chilly start to this
Tuesday as temps fell into the upper 20`s to near 30 for parts of
the Tanana Valley. However temps should be making a big recovery
for most areas over the next few days. An extensive upper ridge
stretching from the southwestern US into western Canada will
continue to build over eastern and northern Alaska through Friday.
Meanwhile, troughing and an associated surface low over the
Bering Sea will be working it`s way eastward and undercut the
ridge the next few days. In general this pattern will be favorable
for the Interior as temps get a nice boost while most of the
heavy precipitation and strong winds associated with the low
remains south of the Alaska Range.

The exception will be across the North Slope and Arctic Coastline
where temps will stay on the colder side thanks to a strong
Arctic high lingering across the southern Beaufort Sea. This will
continue to funnel a brisk easterly surface flow along the Arctic
coastline the next couple of days. As winds increase to between 30
and 40 mph in spots, especially the eastern Arctic coastline,
some blowing snow and reduced visibilities will occur. In addition
the same gradient between the Arctic High and the low in the
Bering will keep breezy conditions ongoing across the central
Brooks Range and the higher terrain of the Central Interior as
well.

As for precipitation chances, the low in the Bering will likely
send shortwave energy north and westwards tonight and Wednesday.
Initially some light precipitation will traverse the YK Delta and
Norton Sound area tonight. Meanwhile additional precipitation
should develop over the Upper Kuskokwim and Western Interior
Wednesday afternoon. Hi-res model soundings for Wednesday
afternoon over the upper Kuskokwim show modest CAPE values
developing in the afternoon and K index values of around 25 which
indicates an increasing probability that at least some
thunderstorms may develop.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today, the main concern will be across western Alaska and areas near
the YK Delta where the tight pressure gradient between the Bering
Sea low and Arctic high produces strong southeasterly/easterly winds
and enhanced boundary-layer mixing. Despite generally dry
conditions, cooler temperatures and limited instability should help
prevent more critical fire weather conditions. As the low shifts
east into the Gulf Wednesday and Thursday, the pressure gradient
weakens and winds diminish substantially across the Interior,
reducing large-scale wind-driven fire spread potential. Behind the
departing trough, colder air aloft combined with increasing solar
heating will support scattered afternoon convective showers, mainly
across the western and eastern Interior. There is a chance for
isolated lightning strikes Wednesday afternoon and evening across
the eastern YK Delta where instability appears to be marginally
stronger, though thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse.
Most showers should remain primarily rain-producing with limited
vertical development, reducing the threat of dry lightning and
widespread holdover concerns. Even so, the convective nature of the
showers could still produce localized gusty outflow winds near
heavier cells despite otherwise light ambient winds. By Friday,
another Bering Sea low begins tightening the gradient once again
across western Alaska, leading to a slight increase in winds near
the YK Delta while scattered convective showers continue across
portions of the Interior. Overall fire risk remains low across most
of the region with main threats in areas of stronger winds
associated with passing of the lows as well as localized gusty
outflow winds near convective showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Koyukuk River:
A Flood Warning is in effect for the Koyukuk River at Hughes for
ice jam flooding. Members of the public and emergency manager
reported continued flooding in low lying areas, including
significant impacts to the airport and school property.

Yukon River:
The Yukon River breakup front has moved well downstream of Tanana
with bank to bank ice runs extending back to near Tanana.
Downstream of the breakup front large ridges and shifting ice
sheets were noted From Ruby to Galena with open water in place
downstream of this area of ice.

Chena River:
The Chena River has begun to respond to warmer temperatures with
increased snowmelt leading to rivers running higher and gages
getting closer or reaching action stage.

Salcha River:
The Salcha River is expected to reach action stage later this
week as warmer temperatures lead to increased snowmelt.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Head to www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law
enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so
safely.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... (Saturday through Tuesday)
The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge extending
north from western Canada into eastern and northern Alaska while
a persistent upper trough stays in place over the Bering Sea and
far north Pacific. Beginning Saturday a low over the central
Aleutians will send shortwave energy north resulting in some
shower activity from the YK Delta up into the western Interior
while strong gap winds could again develop through the Alaska
Range passes. This may bring about additional fire weather
concerns for the middle and upper Yukon Valley over the weekend.
A second low will swing into the southeast Bering late in the
period which will again send shortwave energy north into Alaska`s
Interior with additional chances for scattered showers and even a
few thunderstorms. Meanwhile high pressure will dominate the North
Slope through the extended period. Breezy conditions will be
likely along the Arctic coastline while temps slowly begin to
moderate.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Laney/Cruz-Fire WX