039
FXAK69 PAFG 262248
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
148 PM AKST Tue Nov 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quieter conditions expected across much of Interior Alaska as cold
high pressure settles in, allowing temperatures to plummet well
below zero. Weather is a little busier along the Arctic coast as a
weak low approaches the Western Arctic coast Wednesday and a
front pushes east across the Arctic coast Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cold high pressure settles in across the Interior for the latter
  half of the work week, allowing temperatures to plummet and dry
  conditions to prevail.

- Interior valley locations are expected to see temperatures drop
  into the 30F below range, while the colder spots in the Yukon
  Flats and Fortymile Country could see lows near 40F below.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Winds are expected to diminish along the eastern Beaufort Sea coast
  this afternoon and evening, bringing an end to the blowing snow and
  the very cold wind chills.

- A weak low moves to the western Arctic coast tonight, with
  southerly winds increasing to 20 to 30 mph from Point Hope to Point
  Lay with an inch or less of snow are expected.

- The next front moves across the region Thursday into Friday.
  Winds shift to the south southwest and increase to 15 to 30 mph,
  ahead of the front and then shift northwest behind the front. Light
  snow accompanies the front with accumulation of 1 to 2 inches.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Temperatures plummet as cold high pressure builds across the
  state. In western Interior valleys north of Galena, temperatures
  fall into the 20 to 25F below range tonight, dropping into the
  30F below range Wednesday night, with subzero temperatures
  across much of the remainder of the area, with the exception of
  St. Lawrence Island where, temperatures will be in the 10 to 20F
  above zero range.

- South winds strengthen from Wales to Kivalina Wednesday evening as
  a front pushes towards the Western Arctic coast.  The strongest
  winds will be north of Kivalina towards Point Hope, with winds in
  the 30 mph range with gusts in the 40 mph range. Expect reduced
  visibility in falling and blowing snow as this front moves through.

Upper level ridging builds north across the Bering Sea, while a
longwave trough extends south out of the high Arctic and across
the eastern two thirds of the state. A shortwave trough stretching
out of the Canadian Archipelago southwest to Kenai tracks
southeast through Wednesday morning. Another shortwave trough near
Wrangel Island today, pushes east southeast across the Arctic
coast and Brooks Range through Wednesday night, and the eastern
Interior Thursday. By Thursday night the next shortwave trough
moves across Wrangel Island, reaching the western Arctic coast
Friday morning, dropping south across the Interior Saturday.

At the surface, strong high pressure remains over much of Interior
Alaska, resulting in cold and dry conditions. A weak short-lived
low moves to the western Arctic coast tonight, increasing
southerly winds along the western Arctic coast and producing light
snow. The next front moves across the North Slope and Brooks
Range Thursday into Friday. Ahead of the front south to southwest
increase and become gusty but quickly shift northwest behind it.
Light snow accompanies the front with light accumulations.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...The extended forecast begins with an
upper level ridge over the Bering Sea and an upper level low
dropping south out of the Arctic and over the Interior. Through
the weekend, the ridge shifts north over the Chukotsk Peninsula
while the low pushes southwest to southern Bering Sea. Sensible
weather wise, expect continued cold and dry conditions.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-802-816-850-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ803-805-806-852-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$