198
FXAK69 PAFG 232156
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1256 PM AKST Sat Nov 23 2024


.SYNOPSIS...
A weather front will bring mixed precipitation to the west coast
and snow over the Western Interior tonight through Monday.
Accumulating snowfall will spread east over the Interior on
Monday and into Tuesday, with general snow amounts in the 4 to 7
inch range, except over the SE Interior where downslope flow will
keep that region much drier. Cold high pressure then settles in
Tuesday and beyond with plummeting temps and drier weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Weather Impacts by Region:

Central and Eastern Interior...
A brief chance for snow showers Sunday afternoon will occur as
far east as Fairbanks, but the main front shifts east Sunday
night. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect around the
Central Interior for accumulating snowfall, to begin across the
Interior Sunday night and continue through Monday. This will
impact Monday morning and evening commutes. Downslope flow will
keep areas closer to the AK Range drier, likely from Salcha to
Delta Junction. From Fairbanks northward, expecting a widespread
swath of 4 to 8 inches of snowfall, which will occur in a 24-30
hour period. With this being more of a warm air advection snow,
snowfall will have a higher than normal moisture content for this
event. A strong cold front moves south of the Brooks Range Monday
afternoon into Monday night, bringing north gap winds through the
Brooks Range and blowing and drifting snow concerns. Turning
colder and drier later in the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Winter weather advisories remain in effect for snowfall of 2 to 6
inches with a glaze of ice this afternoon through Sunday. Warmer
air will eventually overspread the YK Delta and Lower Yukon Valley
with a change from snow to rain, with a slight chance for a brief
period of freezing rain. Heavier snowfall accumulations will
occur further northward, where all snow is expected. Looking at a
solid swath of 4 to 8 inches of snowfall pretty much everywhere
by the time the low shifts out of the area Monday afternoon. Gale
force north winds will move across the Bering Strait coast as a
cold front drops south Monday afternoon and overnight with blowing
snow.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow will overspread the Brooks Range and N Slope tonight through
Sunday. There will be a sharp dividing line with the heaviest
snowfall further south, and little to no snow along the northern
end of the snow band. Right now, it looks like the coastal regions
from Utqiagvik eastward will see only minor snow accumulations,
with 2 to 4 inches toward Point Hope, and 4 to 10 inches for the
Western Brooks Range, through Monday morning. A strong cold front
will support significant north winds and blowing snow through the
Brooks Range passes Monday and Monday night.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
An arctic trough settles in Tuesday through Friday with rapidly
dropping temps as skies clear out and arctic high pressure moves
over the N Mainland. A weak front will clip the Arctic mid to late
week, otherwise, very quiet weather looks to settle in with the
main storyline being a return to colder than normal temps.

Analysis and Forecast/Confidence Discussion...
Current Upper level pattern showing a strong 570+ dam ridge axis
over the N Pacific extending all the way into the Interior. 524
Dam upper low west of Saint Lawrence Island will track eastward
and become an open wave by Sunday afternoon over Saint Lawrence
Island, then continue to push inland on Monday. This low will be
the main snow maker for the Western and Central Interior. There
is still some slight timing differences on when the downsloping
will end and precip to begin across the Interior but confidence
is still high for advisory level snowfall. Strong ridging will
build over the Bering Sea Monday and hold through much of the
week. Colder air will begin to filter over the much of the state
Tuesday through Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820>822-824>826-830.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834-842.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-843.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ841-844-845.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ846.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$