127
FXAK69 PAFG 032347
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
Issued by National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Today is the last day of near seasonable weather
across northern Alaska before a pattern change brings much cooler
temperatures across the area and even heavy snow to the Brooks
Range where a Winter Storm Watch has been issued. Showers will be
on the increase by Thursday across the area as well, with just
isolated thunderstorms. The North Slope will continue to see
stratus and areas of fog with below normal temperatures. Expect
north winds to increase through the Bering Strait on Wednesday
with gusts to 45 mph.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon north and west of
  Livengood.

- Wind Advisories remain in effect for the Alaska Range passes and
  for Delta Junction through 4am Wednesday.

- Breezy west/southwest winds across the rest of the Interior
  persist through Thursday.

- Highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for most places through
  Wednesday with cooler temperatures returning at the end of the
  week.

- Mostly cloudy conditions are expected with showers mostly
  staying over the higher terrain, but increasing in coverage on
  Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon across the Upper
  Kuskokwim and Middle Yukon and again on Thursday and Friday
  mainly near the Yukon River east of Kaltag.

- Light intermittent rain showers persist across most of the area
  through the week.

- North-northwest winds increase to 20 to 30 mph through the
  Bering Strait late on Wednesday and continue into Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Heavy snow is possible in the Brooks Range and north to Toolik
  Lake this week, with the heaviest snow likely from Thursday
  evening through Saturday morning. Expect 7-13" of total
  accumulation. Precipitation will begin as mostly rain on Tuesday
  night and transition to snow on Wednesday.

- Well below normal temperatures continue with highs around freezing
  and lows mainly in the low 20s.

- Persistent onshore flow results in low stratus and fog
  potential continuing through the week, especially during the
  "night".

- Winds generally 20 mph or less except near Point Lay where east
  winds gusting to 45 mph will continue into Thursday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...A very cold core upper low has
moved to the Kuskokwim Delta with south/southwest flow out ahead
of it. Southeast flow exists over the Western Interior. This low
will persist until another low drops south from the Arctic,
spreading everything into a longwave trough aloft by Thursday. The
low in the Arctic will continue to track southwest to near
Utqiagvik by early Friday morning. This low will bring much colder
air to the region, especially from the Brooks Range north, and
southerly flow ahead of the low will bring heavy precipitation to
the south slopes of the Brooks Range. Model solutions vary widely
on QPF amounts, but there is good agreement for a long duration
snow event beginning on Wednesday with periods of heavy snow on
Thursday night into Friday. Have issued a Winter Storm Watch for
Atigun Pass, Anaktuvuk Pass, and the Dalton Highway south of
Toolik Lake. Will continue to monitor this and update as needed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...South winds through Alaska Range passes are the
main concern this afternoon and overnight tonight. These winds
have reached as far north as Nenana and Fairbanks this afternoon
and may continue to mix down that far north through the evening at
times. Relative humidity has been around 30%, and we do not expect
the area near Delta Junction to reach critical conditions today
due to the RH forecasted to remain above 25%. Other parts of the
eastern Interior will dip into the 18-25% range this afternoon,
but will lack wind. Similar conditions expected Wednesday, with
higher RHs beginning Thursday as precip becomes more
widespread. Thunderstorms will be isolated this afternoon across
the Upper Kuskokwim, Koyukuk, and Middle Yukon Valleys. Wednesday,
expect isolated thunderstorms from the Nulato Hills east to the
Alcan Border, mainly following the Yukon River and staying north
of the Chatanika River. On Thursday and Friday there will be
isolated thunderstorms across most of the Interior. Lighting
activity will in general be quite low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The Yukon River at Stevens Village has crested. The
Manley Slough has crested and there are no concerns there either.
Slate Creek near Coldfoot will rise to near action stage late
Wednesday, but no impacts are expected. Expect rises later this
week on rivers and streams draining the south slopes of the Brooks
Range including on the Koyukuk.

The only breakup concern remaining is the Sag River. Temperatures
remain below normal through the week so break-up is not expected
quite yet. There are no major concerns unless there is a rapid
warm up which is not expected for the next week.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...The extended forecast period will
begin Friday night with a very cold upper level low over the
northwest Interior with northerly flow to the west and southerly
flow to the east. Models have come into better agreement on the
track of this feature at least through the weekend, so forecast
confidence is better than it was yesterday. East of the low,
precip will continue through early next week, with heavy snow
falling over the Brooks Range. The low will slowly move south into
the Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday. All of this will keep conditions
unsettled, showery, and much much cooler than normal.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-847-849.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$

Chriest