949
FXAK69 PAFG 052256
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
156 PM AKST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A strong cold front with light snow is pushing across
the Arctic Coast this afternoon, bringing blowing snow and a
sharp drop in temperatures. Light snow mixed with freezing drizzle
at times will continue through most of tonight in the Fairbanks
area before precipitation turns back to all snow. Blizzard
conditions are expected at Gambell on Thursday with strong
northeast winds and falling snow. A strong ridge of high pressure
builds across the area over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Weather Messages...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Mild weather persists this week with highs in the teens above
  zero and lows around 0 to 10 below.

- Light snow and pockets of freezing drizzle will be around today
  and tonight before changing to all snow tomorrow, but the bulk
  of the accumulating snow has lagged behind and will be arriving
  Thursday night into Friday.
- Snowfall totals through Friday will be around 2 to 4 inches for
   most spots in the Interior, but snowfall totals will diminish towards
   Tok/Northway.

- After the frontal passage Friday afternoon/evening, temperatures
  will drop into -10 to -20 degree range with -30 degrees possible
  in the Yukon Flats.

- Mostly clear skies along with dry and warmer than normal
  conditions with big inversions expected over the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Light snow currently from the Yukon Delta to Kaltag to
  Shishmaref will move east through the afternoon.
- 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected.

- Another front will bring light snow from the Yukon Delta
  northward Thursday morning, then east to Galena in the
  afternoon. Some rain may mix in at times from Chevak to
  Unalakleet, but it will be short lived and shouldn`t accumulate.
- This will bring another 1 to 3 inches with the highest amounts
   along the coast.
- The snow will be heavier in St. Lawrence Island tomorrow with 3
   to 6 inches expected. Gambell will have wind gusts to 45 mph
   which will result in blowing snow and visibility down to 1/4
   mile at times.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A strong cold front with light snow is moving east today with
  another 1 to 3 inches expected from Nuiqsut south/east. Winds
  will briefly gust as high as 50 mph as this front moves east and
  will cause blowing snow and blizzard conditions.

- West winds increase today with gusts to 50 mph, especially in
  Kaktovik where blowing snow is likely and may reduce visibility
  to 1/4 mile at times this afternoon. A Blizzard Warning has
  been issued.

- Temperatures drop below normal tomorrow and remain chilly
  through Saturday.

Forecast Analysis and Confidence...A sharp cold front is moving
across the Arctic Coast this afternoon and will move east of the
Canadian Border by Thursday morning. A weak front is moving
through the Western Interior bringing light snow. This front will
continue to weaken, but as it moves into the central Interior
should bring enough upper level moisture to end the pockets of freezing
drizzle. A secondary warm front will move north through the Bering
Sea bringing snow, wind, and likely blizzard conditions to St.
Lawrence Island on Thursday and Thursday night. Moisture from this
front will get caught up in NW flow aloft and move snow through
the central Interior. Models have struggled mightily on the timing
of this, continually pushing it later and later in the week.
Models currently agree on timing, but differ widely on coverage
and amounts. The current forecast reflects a blend of the ECMWF
and the NAM, which are in good agreement while the GFS is an
outlier. High resolution models also differ significantly. So,
expect 2-4" of snow from McGrath to Fairbanks to Eagle Summit with
lighter amounts to the east. A very strong ridge of high pressure
aloft builds back in over the weekend, bringing clearer skies and
big inversions to the Interior. The West Coast and North Slope
will be warmer than normal and also mostly dry, though some
precipitation will continue to fall near the Yukon Delta and outer
capes of the west coast.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 Through 7...

- High pressure persists over the Interior keeping conditions
  mostly dry and colder.

- Possible snow showers along the West Coast early next week.

A strong ridge sets up over the Interior this weekend and persists
through next week. A strong low moving over the western Aleutians
will allow shortwave features to move through the pattern trying
to break down the ridge. Snow showers are possible along portions
of the West Coast from these shortwaves. High pressure builds in
the Interior under the ridge. Lower pressure moving into the Gulf
of Alaska and Bering Sea midweek next week will begin to break
down the ridge although high surface pressure in the Interior is
expected to persist through the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ827.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ804-805.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ840.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805-852-856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Gale Warning for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

Chriest