272
FXAK69 PAFG 081024
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
124 AM AKST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure around 80N latitude will stay nearly
stationary through the weekend prolonging east/northeast wind
along the Arctic Coast. A weakening 979 mb low just southeast of
Kodiak Island will continue gradually moving northeast. This
provided some very light snow yesterday over the Eastern Interior.
The front that produced the snow has stalled and there is a chance
for flurries in the Fairbanks Bowl today, otherwise slight chances
of snow from the White Mountains to Eagle, north to Chalkyitsik.
Other than this, we will be entering a chillier period this
weekend with near normal temperatures, then below normal by early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Other than some mood setting flurries around the area through
  tonight, quiet weather will dominate through early next week.
- Cooling trend will begin today with near normal temperatures
  through the weekend, and below normal temperatures next week.
- Low temperatures will likely drop below 0 as we head into Monday
  while high temperatures drop into the single digits.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Persistent wind gusts to 20-40 mph from the east/northeast
  along the Arctic Coast with areas of blowing snow continuing
  through the weekend.
- A cooling trend to near normal temperatures this weekend, then
  below normal next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Generally quiet weather elsewhere, just a slight breeze from the
  northeast today into tomorrow which subsides this weekend.
- A cooling trend begins tomorrow and continues through next week
  with temperatures dropping below normal by Saturday and
  remaining there into early next week.

Not much change in the ongoing forecast as a high pressure
remains stationary at around 80N. This is providing persistent
east/northeast wind along the Arctic Coast, though it will be
weakening as we move through the day. Nonetheless, wind persists
this weekend. The strongest wind will be found along the NW Arctic
Coast with a subtle shortwave trough tightening a pressure
gradient. Sustained gale force winds will be found just offshore
while gusts to 40 mph are expected in Point Lay, and upwards of 50
mph in Cape Lisburne. Gusty winds remain through the middle of
next week.

The Interior will be quiet and mostly dry, outside of a few light
snow showers north and east of Fairbanks today and a flurry in
town. A front overhead will keep clouds in the Interior through
tonight, then gradually clear out tomorrow morning. Then through
next week, we`ll go through periods of clearing and cloudiness.
Otherwise, not much to speak of.

Along the West Coast, this quiet weather applies as well. Not much
to speak of besides some stratus clouds, a light breeze and
cooling temperatures. The only notable weather will be found in
the extended forecast.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Expecting generally quiet and near to below normal temperatures
through at least the first half of next week. Winds to gradually
diminish along the North Slope, allowing the blowing snow to lay
down and be less of a concern. A weak front may bring small snow
chances to the West Coast Monday and into the Interior Tuesday,
but this remains a low confidence item. We are monitoring the
potential for a strong low to develop over the western Bering Sea
early in the week which could bring some concerns by the end of
the week. Uncertainty remains high in the track, strength and
impacts, but there is some increasing confidence that there will
be a strong low moving east across the Bering. The devil is in the
details and coastal impacts, heavy snow/rain, and strong winds
are all in play as of now.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-810-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ808.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811>815-858>861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Bianco