193
FXAK69 PAFG 102332
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
332 PM AKDT Sun May 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

An active weather pattern continues across Northern Alaska to
start the week, as a front lifts north over the Alaska Range into
the Interior towards the Brooks Range. Gusty east to northeast
winds across the eastern Arctic Coast today could last through at
least midweek, leading to areas of blowing snow and wind chills as
low as -25F. In the Interior, generally warm and mostly dry
conditions are expected today. As a front shifts north across the
Alaska Range, gusty winds will pick up through the passes later
today into tonight and also in Delta Junction. By this afternoon,
showers (mostly rain) will be possible extending from the West
Coast to the AlCan border in a north-moving line along the front,
although accumulations will not be very heavy. Isolated
thunderstorms are also expected in the Tanana Valley region north
to the Yukon River. Minor snow accumulations will be possible in
the Brooks Range and on the North Slope through Monday night.
Cooler conditions are likely on Monday in the Central and Eastern
Interior, with a warming trend resuming on Tuesday. Conditions
will trend drier across Northern Alaska for Tuesday, ahead of
daily shower chances returning south of the Brooks Range starting
Wednesday.

We are continuing to actively monitor the ongoing spring breakup
across Northern Alaska; please see the Hydrology discussion below
for an update on the latest information.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Chances for precipitation become more scattered across the
  Interior today and Monday. Precipitation type should be mostly
  rain, apart from higher elevations where snow or a rain/snow mix
  could occur.

- Maximum temperatures in much of the Southern Interior will
  reach or exceed 60F today, and after a brief dip Monday, the
  warming trend should continue.

- Gusty NE winds will continue across the northern Interior
  through Monday morning. Winds on the south slopes of the Brooks
  Range and Dalton Hwy Summits could gust as high as 35 mph.

- A front will passes through the Interior late Sunday into
  Monday bringing gusty southerly winds behind it. Southerly gap
  winds through the Alaska Range passes will reach their peak
  Sunday night into Monday with gusts to around 50 to 65 mph.

- Red Flag Warnings and Wind Advisories are in place for the Delta
  Junction region south along the Richardson Highway through
  Monday for gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels.

- This afternoon, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the
  Middle and Upper Tanana Valley and nearby parts of the
  southeastern Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A front will lift north across Western Alaska from tonight into
  Monday morning, producing a band of precipitation which should
  be primarily rain.

- On Monday, the cool, dry air mass over the western half of the
  state will be replaced by warm, southerly flow bringing
  temperatures into the 50s for the Western Interior and 40s along
  the coast. The warming trend continues through next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Easterly winds continue across the Brooks Range at around 15 to
  25 mph. Monday, winds shift to southerly and winds become
  briefly gusty in the morning.

- The Central and Eastern Brooks Range will see continuing snow
  chances. Additional snow accumulations are not likely to exceed
  3 inches in most areas. Light snow with little or no
  accumulation will be possible elsewhere on the North Slope.

- Monday morning, a front brings a band of snow across the Brooks
  Range, arriving north of the Range by the afternoon.
  Accumulations should be generally less than an inch.

- Gusty winds continue across the North Slope today. Winds will be
  strongest along the Western and Eastern Arctic Coast where winds
  could peak upwards of 40 mph.

- Winds could remain elevated through at least Wednesday, leading
  to areas of blowing snow which could significantly reduce
  visibility. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Point
  Lay due to blowing snow leading to visibiltiy at or below a half
  mile.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday Night.

A 1018 mb surface high over the Arctic is helping to bring brisk
northeasterly winds to the eastern Arctic Coast. These winds could
last through at least midweek. A 517 dm upper low (at 500 mb) in
southwestern Alaska with 850 mb temperatures around 7C to 10C
will bring southerly flow on its east periphery, helping to bring
warm and dry conditions to the Central and Eastern Interior of
Alaska, with highs in the mid 50s to 60s. As a shortwave trough
embedded in the flow moves over the Alaska Range, winds will
increase through the Alaska Range passes, with gusty winds
possible through at least Tuesday morning. By this afternoon into
the overnight period, areas of (mostly rain) showers will be
possible across much of the Interior/West Coast (from the Norton
Sound area north) as the trough/surface front push northward. Some
isolated thunderstorms could also occur near the northern slopes
of the Alaska Range early on. Most of these showers are unlikely
to drop more than a few hundredths of an inch of liquid
precipitation. By tonight, these showers will begin to move across
the Brooks Range, where they could drop an inch or two of snow,
with very light snow possible across the North Slope/Arctic Coast
shortly thereafter. Temperatures will cool across the Interior by
a few degrees on Monday as colder air briefly intrudes from the
south/southwest. A warming trend resumes by Tuesday, with
temperatures potentially reaching into the mid 60s in some
Interior valleys. A mid-980s mb low in the southeastern Bering
Sea will bring light showers and potentially gusty southeasterly
winds to southwestern Alaska from early Tuesday into the
afternoon/evening. By midweek, temperatures at 850 mb in the
Eastern Interior could exceed 3 to 4C, which will correspond with
continuing warm weather at the surface.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The upper-level pattern continues to show broad troughing across the
western portion of the state. With this, an upper-level low
continues to spin over Bristol Bay. A surface low has moved inland
over the south-central coast of Alaska. A front extends from this
weakening low and is expected to move across the Alaska Range later
this evening. Ahead of the front, this afternoon, a chance for
isolated thunderstorms is possible from FNSB to the Upper Tanana.
Behind the front, southerly flow will set up over the Alaska Range,
allowing gusty gap winds to increase. The strongest winds are
expected to be in Isabel Pass with potential gusts up to 50 mph. In
additional, the southerly flow will support drier conditions,
especially for areas just north of the Alaska Range. With that, a
Red Flag warning is currently in effect for Delta Junction this
afternoon and Monday afternoon.

Subtle ridging will begin to build up over the SE portion of the
state by late Monday night. This will allow for warmer temperatures
to continue across the Interior, allowing more areas to see RH
values around 25 percent by the mid week. After today, the next best
chance for thunderstorms for the Interior will be Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

KOYUKUK RIVER

A Flood Warning is in effect for the Koyukuk River at Hughes for
reported ice jam flooding. The Flood Watch for the wider area
along the Koyukuk River near Hughes also remains in effect.

KUSKOKWIM RIVER

A Flood Watch also remains in effect for the Kuskokwim River at
McGrath for a series of ice jams leading to potential flooding. A
Flood Advisory has been issued for McGrath today to capture minor
flooding impacts. The public reported continued minor flooding
impacts that is currently not impacting any structures or main
roads at this time.

YUKON RIVER

The Yukon River breakup front is currently near Stevens Village,
where the River Watch team noted stronger ice in the canyon
downstream. If the breakup front stalls here, water levels will
rise with the potential for flooding in Stevens Village. A Flood
Watch is in effect for Stevens Village as a result. A Hydrologic
Outlook is also out for the Yukon Flats region.

PORCUPINE RIVER

The breakup front on the Porcupine River is at Fort Yukon today.
The Old Crow gage shows high water levels from snowmelt, which
should reach Fort Yukon by Monday evening into Tuesday. Residents
should continue monitoring the Porcupine River water levels, which
are expected to remain elevated as the ice clears. A Hydrologic
Outlook is also out for the Yukon Flats region.

CHATANIKA RIVER

Members of the public and River Watch officials report continued
ice jam flooding on the Chatanika River west of the Elliott
Highway and along the Tanana River near the confluence with the
Cosna River. Flood Advisories remain in effect for these areas.

CHENA RIVER

Around the Fairbanks region, the Chena River has begun to respond
to warmer temperatures with increased snowmelt leading to rivers
running higher and closer to action stage at the two gages near
Two Rivers and below Moose Creek Dam. With the gage near Two
Rivers hovering right around action stage, monitor these potential
impacts along CHSR: Rosehip Campground typically closes (Mile
27), river access at Mile 28 typically closes, Compeau trailhead
typically floods but is usable, water begins to pond on the
upstream side of CHSR at Mile 36.9, and Stiles Creek shooting
range typically floods.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Head to www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law
enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so
safely.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through next Sunday.

At the start of the extended forecast period, the pattern is
dominated by an upper level high over the Arctic Ocean and a very
large region of upper level low pressure stretching across the
Bering Sea. A weak ridge attempts to push into Northern Alaska from
Canada, but is halted by the other upper level features. Through the
end of the week the upper level low attempts to move east into the
Gulf of Alaska allowing the upper level high to start pushing into
Northern Alaska. The majority of flow throughout the pattern lies on
the south side of the upper level low and remains well to the south
of Northern Alaska leaving the region with relatively gentle weather
that slowly warms through the end of the week. The majority in
variance in the forecast remains south of the region so the forecast
remains fairly confident.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849.
     Flood Watch for AKZ828-852.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ937.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ937.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-858-860-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
KEY POINTS.....DS/MacKay
SHORT TERM.....DS
FIRE WEATHER...Twombly
HYDROLOGY......MacKay
LONG TERM......DS