045
FXAK69 PAFG 221535
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
635 AM AKST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Freezing drizzle across the Interior is coming to an
end this morning and partial clearing is expected by this
afternoon, though low clouds and fog will remain in place this
morning. Mostly dry conditions are expected across the state
today. The next frontal system will bring mixed precipitation to
the west coast beginning Saturday night before bringing snow as it
spreads into the Interior Sunday and Sunday night. Winter Weather
Advisories have been issued for Norton Sound and the Lower Yukon
Valley to the Yukon Delta for ice accumulations up to one tenth of
an inch. Snow amounts of 3 to 7 inches are possible across most of
the forecast area south of the Brooks Range including Fairbanks
through Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Messages...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Freezing drizzle has turned back to very light snow across all
  areas and that threat has ended. Low clouds and fog will perist
  through this morning across most areas though.

- Dry, mild, and partly cloudy conditions expected this afternoon
  and Saturday.

- A front moving across the Interior late Sunday through Tuesday
  morning will bring the next chance for significant snowfall.
  Snowfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches possible including for
  Fairbanks. High confidence that the precipitation type remains
  all snow for the central and eastern Interior with this system.

- Breezy winds beginning Saturday evening at Eagle and Eagle
  Summit, and through Alaska Range Passes and at Delta Junction
  beginning Sunday. Gusts are expected to remain 40 mph or less.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Quieter and colder conditions expected through the weekend.
  Temperatures mostly in the single digits above and below zero.

- Light snow across all areas south of Utqiagvik Saturday through
  Monday. Snow amounts generally around 2 inches except up to 6
  inches in the Western Brooks Range.

- Southerly winds increase to 15 to 25 mph in the central Brooks
  Range passes Sunday, accompanied by areas of blowing snow.
  Visibility may be reduced to less than a mile at times.

- Stronger north winds and blowing snow through Brooks Range
  Passes beginning Monday afternoon and lasting through Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Drier conditions expected today. Temperatures remain well above
  normal, with many areas near the coast seeing high temperatures
  near or above freezing through the weekend.

- The next frontal system looks to bring significant rain, snow,
  and freezing rain to the West Coast beginning late Saturday and
  pushing into the Interior on Sunday. Highest snow amounts in
  favored upslope areas, including the Noatak Valley, where 6 to
  10 inches are possible. Elsewhere, snow amounts of 3 to 7 inches
  are possible. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for
  Norton Sound and the Lower Yukon Valley to the Yukon Delta for
  ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch.

- Behind the fronts, strong northerly gales develop through the
  Bering Strait Sunday night through Monday night.

High pressure persists over the state and will slide east and
weaken today as a low pressure system enters the far western
Bering Sea. With this high pressure, abundant moisture remains
trapped at the surface with satellite imagery showing fog and low
stratus across much of the Interior this morning. This low center
in the Bering Sea will bring the next push of impactful weather
to northern Alaska, with a warm front arriving at the West Coast
on Saturday. This warm front will be reinvigorated by a push of
moisture from the north Pacific as it moves into and through the
Interior Sunday through Tuesday.

Forecast changes tonight were to add ice accumulation along the
West Coast and issue Winter Weather Advisories for the areas
outlined above. We used a blend of models for other forecast
elements and made hand edits to increase the winds at Eagle and
through Alaska Range Passes Saturday evening through Sunday.
Forecast models are in good agreement on the overall pattern, but
do show differences in the timing of the precipitation moving
across the state. The ECMWF is about 6 hours faster with the
precipitation than the NAM and GFS. The forecast reflects more of
the ECMWF solution.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...The extended forecast
period beginning Monday afternoon begins with strong northerly
gales through the Bering strait behind the frontal system that
will be moving through the central and eastern Interior through
Tuesday night. Very high pressure builds back in behind the front
with north to northwesterly flow aloft across the state through
next weekend. A few weak shortwaves may bring light snow to the
northwest Arctic at times. Expect strong inversions and near
normal temperatures in the Interior, and near normal temperatures
elsewhere.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-824>826-830.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850-851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-810-811-856-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
&&

$$

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