752
FXAK69 PAFG 020042
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
342 PM AKST Sun Feb 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Generally quiet and dry weather will continue across much of
Northern Alaska into Monday, as gusty winds remain focused along the
Arctic/West Coasts with light snow chances across the North Slope,
West Coast, Northern Interior, and Brooks Range. An extended period
of gusty winds and blowing snow is expected to persist across the
Arctic Coast (primarily from Point Lay to Kaktovik) today through at
least Wednesday into Thursday. As a result, Blizzard Warnings and
Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect through Wednesday.
Increasing snow chances will build into the Interior midweek, with
gusty winds expected across higher elevations and the Middle
Tanana Valley around Delta Junction. A Winter Storm Watch has been
issued today for the Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits
north of Fairbanks for gusty winds and blowing snow. Temperatures
are expected to trend warmer midweek as conditions remain cold
across the North Slope.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Generally quiet and dry conditions with a mix of sun and clouds
  will continue into early next week as strong inversions persist.

- Temperatures for the coldest valleys will reach down to around
  -10F to -20F through Tuesday morning.

- Isolated light snow showers will continue across the Northern
  Interior trough Monday night, with increasing snow chances
  building in from the southeast late Tuesday into Wednesday.
  Accumulations around a T-3" expected, highest in the mountains.

- A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Dalton, Elliott,
  and Steese Highway Summits late Tuesday through Wednesday night
  for gusty winds and blowing snow.

- Temperatures will rise mid to late week as winds ramp up across
  higher elevations and around the Middle Tanana Valley.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Light snow showers will continue across the West Coast and
  Northwest Interior through Monday night, with additional snow
  accumulations around a T-2".

- Northeast winds will continue to increase across Western Alaska
  tonight into Monday and Tuesday, with strongest winds expected
  along the West Coast and across higher elevations. Gusty winds
  may lead to areas of blowing snow at times through midweek.

- Temperatures hold steady through tomorrow with highs in the
  single digits and teens and lows in the single digits above and
  below zero with coldest locations dropping to around -15F. A dip
  on temperatures is expected on Tuesday before a warm trends sets
  by midweek with highs into the 10s/20s above zero.

- Light snow chances will increase across Western Alaska Wednesday
  into Thursday, but with light accumulations expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- An extended period of blowing snow and low visibility is
  expected through at least midweek across the Arctic Coast, with
  a mix of Blizzard Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories in
  effect through Wednesday. These could potentially be expanded
  later in the week.

- Light snow showers will continue through Monday, favoring the
  Brooks Range and Eastern North Slope. Additional snow
  accumulations of a T-2" are expected.

- Temperatures cool down to the -10F to -30F range heading into
  early next week with even colder wind chills down to -50F. This
  will be followed by a gradual warming trend for the second half
  of the week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a mix of sun and clouds over
Northern Alaska, with a broad 1040 mb area of high pressure in the
High Arctic and a series of strong lows in the Gulf of Alaska. The
500 mb pattern continues to be dominated by a ridge of high pressure
extending northwest from the Western CONUS into Alaska, a broad H5
high in the High Arctic, and a 505 dm low in the Gulf of Alaska. A
series of shortwaves working around these features will continue to
support scattered snow showers across the North Slope, West Coast,
Brooks Range, and Northern Interior through Monday. As the energy in
the Gulf of Alaska organizes early next week into a ~950 mb surface
low and gradually shifts north, this will lead to a continued ramp
up of the pressure gradient over Northern Alaska and a result,
support increasing winds areawide.

Winds have already begun to ramp up along the West Coast and Arctic
Coast today, with these stronger winds expected to expand and shift
south/inland for Monday into Tuesday. Blizzard Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories remain in effect through Wednesday along the
Arctic Coast to capture where blowing snow will lead to 1/4 to 1/2
mile visibility or less at times through midweek. A Winter Storm
Watch has also been issued for higher elevations of the Interior to
include the Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway summits due to a
combination of gusty winds and new snow leading to areas of reduced
visibility due to blowing snow. Across lower elevations, winds will
see ramp up especially on Tuesday as southerly gap winds and a
Tanana Valley jet work to support strongest winds in the valleys
around Delta Junction and through Alaska Range Passes.

As a large plume of moisture lifts north from the strong low in the
Gulf into Southcentral and Southeast Alaska throughout the day
Tuesday, snow chances will steadily increase out of the southeast
over the Interior late Tuesday into Tuesday night. An overlap of
strongest winds and new, blowable snow may lead to areas of blowing
snow especially across higher elevations. Warmer temperatures look
to accompany this push of moisture out of the south, leading to
gradually warming temperatures south of the Brooks Range through
midweek as the North Slope remains cold.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through next Sunday.
The active weather pattern is expected to continue through midweek
as gusty winds and scattered snow chances continue across the
Interior and Western Alaska south of the Brooks Range on Wednesday.
As a warmer airmass lifts north with the accompanying southerly
moisture transport, temperatures will trend warmer midweek with
warmer areas climbing into the 20s and 30s above zero, primarily
across the Southern/Western Interior and Western Alaska. The primary
pressure gradient that will be producing our gusty winds areawide
will also continue to lift north Wednesday into Thursday, leading to
lessening winds across the Interior and western Alaska as strongest
winds shift to the Arctic Coast. We currently have our winter
hazards expiring on Wednesday along the Arctic Coast for blowing
snow, but these may need to be extended dependent on how much
blowable snow remains later into in the week.

Drier conditions are then expected to build into Northern Alaska
later in the week as isolated light snow showers persist. Increasing
confidence supports a pattern change aloft as ensemble and
deterministic model guidance continues to lean towards that dominant
ridge of high pressure in the High Arctic shifting west as an H5
trough in the Canadian Archipelago also shifts west. This would set
up our region in a more favorable storm track out of the southwest
heading into early next week, with the main caveat will be just how
much that area of high pressure in the Arctic can shift west. A
further westerly track would allow for that H5 ridge over the
Western CONUS to also to shift west, allowing for a more favorable
storm track into our region. Plenty of moving parts here, so we will
continue to monitor the latest guidance as the situation evolves.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802>805.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ832-834.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-813>815-854-858-860-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-856-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

MacKay