225
FXAK69 PAFG 281335
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
535 AM AKDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
With the cold front have passed through a good portion of the
state, cooler conditions have begun to settle in. Scattered
showers will continue across most of the state, today, with the
heavies amounts expected along the south sides of the Brooks
Range. Cold and wet conditions will continue over the next several
days as broad troughiness sets up over the state as an upper-level
low, previously spinning in the Bering, moves across the southern
portion of the state. Thunderstorm chances will be limited today,
but will pick back up by the start of the week as the low will
bring another round of easterly flow to the SE portions of the
Interior.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Additional rainfall amounts through Monday will be around 0.10-
  0.25" in the Tanana Valley and 0.25-1.25" in the Alaska Range
  and north of the Tanana. Highest totals are expected to be
  around Eagle.

- Following the cold front, scattered showers will continue early
  to mid next week as a Bering Sea low moves inland. Very limited
  coverage of thunderstorms today will give way to isolated
  thunderstorms Monday onwards for the Upper Tanana and Fortymile
  Country.

- Highs in the 50s/60s across the Interior today, which will
  continue into early next week. Gradually warming temperatures
  are expected back by midweek.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A cold front will continue to lift north across Western Alaska
  through the end of the weekend with scattered to widespread
  showers, southwest wind gusts up to 30 mph, and accompanying
  colder temperatures.

- While the bulk of rainfall has already fallen from the cold
  front, additional widespread moderate amounts will shift north
  throughout the day today. Scattered showers will continue early
  to mid next week as a Bering Sea low moves inland.

- Highs in the 50s/60s today which will continue into early next
  week. Gradually warming temperatures are expected back by
  midweek. Locally cooler conditions will exist along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- A cold front will continue to lift north across far Northern
  Alaska today into Monday with scattered showers and
  thunderstorms and wind gusts up to 30 mph.

- Total rainfall amounts with this system through Monday are
  expected to be around 0.25-0.75" in the Brooks Range and a
  T-0.25" across the Southern Arctic Plains and Eastern Arctic
  Coast. Snow showers will be possible across highest elevations
  of the Brooks Range and along the Eastern Arctic Coast.

- While temperatures will see a cooling trend in the Brooks Range
  into early next week, southerly flow will lead to warming
  conditions across the North Slope. Highs regionwide will trend
  to being in the 40s/50s/60s starting Sunday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Overall forecast remains on track with the changes that were seen
yesterday. Overall focus has turned to the cold front that has
been moving N/NE across the Interior. This front continues to
shift northward as a Bering low shifts NE from St. Paul Island.
Meanwhile, a weak shortwave continues to move north along the
eastern portion of the state. This is setting up another round of
broad troughiness across much of the state. Models have backed off
on the precipitation amount expected today, in comparison to what
was being shown yesterday. Widespread showery conditions are
expected across the state, today, with the bulk of the
precipitation expected over the Northern Interior, Central Brooks
Range, and NW Interior.

The low from the Bering will continue to shift eastward through
the early parts of next week. While this happens, the energy from
the shortwave moving up the Eastern Interior will continue to move
toward the Brooks Range and become a closed off low as it moves
over the NE Arctic Coast. The low from the Bering will continue to
shift over the southern portion of the state and move into the
northern portion of the Gulf sometime Tuesday. Some models have
the low weakening as it progresses, but all the models show the
low closed off as it continues to shift SE down the coast of the
Alaska Panhandle.

Broad troughing pattern is looking to continue across the state.
This will continue to bring cooler temperature and isolated
showers and thunderstorms throughout the middle portions of the
week. However, the thunderstorms will be mostly situated over the
SE portion of the state with the easterly flow that will set up
from the shortwave setting up in the northern Gulf of Alaska. This
setup is expected to continue into the later half of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With the cold front having moved through the Interior and is
beginning to stall over the Brooks Range. The Northern Interior and
Brooks Range will continue to see widespread wetting rains through
the region. Elsewhere in the Interior isolated to scattered showers
will continue. These showers will be slow moving, so they could
produce wetting rains, but it is unlikely. Temperatures will
continue to drop across the Interior with widespread 50s and low
60s. Southwesterly winds will continue to strengthen south to north
across the Interior Valleys today with winds gusts up to 25 mph.
These valleys winds will be accompanied with gusty ridgetop winds up
to 35 mph, and any area that clears for enough time today, could see
some mixing of the ridgetop winds.

Through the middle of next week, we are expecting similar conditions
to Sunday with Isolated to Scattered rain showers, cooler
temperatures, and cloudy skies. In the southeastern Interior there
are chances for an isolated thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday
afternoon, but for the rest of the Interior, thunderstorm chances
are near zero.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Current model guidance indicates that the upper-level low that is
currently over southwest Alaska will have moved east across the
Gulf of Alaska and into the Alaska Panhandle by Wednesday evening.
As this current low moves east, ridging may be able to build in
the Central/Eastern Interior briefly before the next low moves
into the Bering Sea. This low could bring widespread precipitation
for the West Coast and isolated to scattered precipitation for
the Central and Eastern Interior in the later portion of the week.

On the North Slope, Arctic troughing returns on Wednesday
evening, and with it a front that will move east over the North
Slope from Wednesday evening through Friday morning, bringing
widespread light precipitation. As of right now, there is a lack
of model consensus on both the strength and location of both the
Arctic trough and Bering low. If the low over the Bering stays
weaker, it will be able to draw the cooler air from troughing in
the Arctic, meaning that cooler temperatures are expected to
remain through the end of next week, with the amount of cooling
depending on the strength and location of the Arctic trough. If
the Bering Sea low remains stronger, it will be cut off from the
Arctic trough, giving temperatures a chance to warm up to near
normal late week. Some ensemble guidance is hinting at a return to
ridging for next weekend, but consensus is low.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-856-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Twombly
Dennis - Fire Wx
Schlezinger - Extended