928
FXAK69 PAFG 052344
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A front lifting northeast over the Interior today will support
widespread rain south of and including the Brooks Range, with a
rain/snow mix across highest elevations. Drier conditions will build
in out of the south tonight into Sunday, ahead of a series of lows
lifting northeast through Southwest Alaska for Sunday into Monday
and Tuesday. These systems will help keep rain chances going through
midweek. Looking ahead, a strong low and associated atmospheric
river is expected to move into Western Alaska late Wednesday into
Thursday with widespread rain and gusty winds. Onshore flow is
expected with strong southwest winds, which could lead to high surf
and minor coastal flooding across the West Coast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Widespread rain will continue to lift northeast through this
  evening, with drier conditions building in out of the south.
  Additional rainfall amounts after 4 PM are expected to be
  around a 0.05-0.20" with dry conditions across the Upper
  Tanana Valley.

- Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the Eastern
  Alaska Range, Upper Tanana Valley, and Fortymile Country this
  afternoon. Convective rain showers across the Interior today
  will lead to brief pockets of moderate rain at times.

- Southwest wind gusts of up to around 20 mph are possible on
  the back end of this front lifting northeast, with winds
  subsiding after sunset.

- Conditions will trend predominantly dry tonight into Sunday,
  with isolated showers lifting north on Monday.

- Temperatures will trend warmer Sunday into Monday for most,
  with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s. Highs today
  will be in the lows 70s across the Upper Tanana Valley with
  increased sunshine and downslope flow.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Scattered rain showers along the coast and widespread rain in
  the Interior will continue to lift north tonight, with drier
  conditions building in immediately behind the departing front.
  Additional rainfall amounts through tonight will be around a
  T-0.10".

- A series of lows entering Southwest Alaska and lifting north
  will bring steadier rain chances to the Yukon Delta and Norton
  Sound region on Sunday, before lifting northeast Monday into
  Tuesday to encompassing all of Western Alaska.

- Southwest winds will pick up on Wednesday ahead of a strong
  low and atmospheric river moving into Western Alaska late
  Wednesday into Thursday. This system will bring widespread
  rain, gusty winds, and onshore flow, with the potential for
  high surf and minor coastal flooding. Stay tuned for
  additional updates.

- Temperatures will hold steady through midweek, with highs in
  the 40s/50s to low 60s with lows in the 30s/40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A front lifting north into the Brooks Range today into tonight
  will support a mix of rain/snow showers as drier conditions
  build in out of the south.

- Breezy easterly winds along the Arctic Coast with gusts
  peaking around 30 to 40 mph will subside this evening into the
  overnight hours. Widespread low stratus and areas of fog
  persist.

- Conditions will trend drier for Sunday into early Monday
  outside of very isolated showers, with another front lifting
  north throughout the day Monday into the Brooks Range with
  rain showers.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a warming trend through
  midweek with highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 30s/40s,
  colder across higher elevations of the Brooks Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a front lifting
northeast across Northern Alaska, with a pair of low pressure
systems in the Bering Sea and Eastern Aleutians. Drier
conditions will build in tonight into Sunday behind the
departing front into the Brooks Range, as the first low in the
Aleutians lifts north into Southwest Alaska. This system will
bring steadier rain chances to the Yukon Delta, that will lift
northeast late Sunday into Monday and Tuesday as that secondary
low in the Bering reinforces the moisture transport into the
Interior. This setup will help to keep rain chances around
across Western Alaska, with those chances returning to the
Interior Monday into Tuesday following a brief break from the
wet weather. While rainfall totals Sunday will be mostly
confined to the Yukon Delta and Norton Sound region around 0.10
to 0.25 inches, those rainfall amounts will increase and shift
northeast Monday into Monday night. Amounts across the West
Coast and Western Interior here will be around 0.10 to 0.25
inches, locally higher in the Upper Kuskokwim around McGrath
closer to 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Temperatures will hold steady at
near normal to above normal levels regionwide courtesy of broad
southerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday.
An unsettled pattern will continue through the extended
forecast, as as series of lows combine in Western Alaska and
send moisture into the Interior for Tuesday. This low and
associated trough will shift east/northeast Tuesday into Tuesday
night with widespread rain. Amounts here will generally be
around 0.10 to 0.50 inches south of and including the Brooks
Range, with locally higher totals in the Alaska Range with
southerly upslope flow closer to 0.50 to 1.00 inch. Following
this, attention quickly turns to a strengthening area of low
pressure as it lifts north through the far Western Aleutians up
through Eastern Siberia towards the Bering Strait. Increasing
model confidence supports this system tapping into a large fetch
of southwest atmospheric river moisture as it lifts north,
which is expected to bring widespread moderate to heavy rain and
gusty winds into Western Alaska late Wednesday into Thursday.
Impacts from this system will lift northeast Thursday into
Friday with an uptick in winds farther inland. Given the large
fetch of southwest, onshore flow, and wind gusts potentially
peaking around 50 to 60 mph along the West Coast, we are closely
monitoring the potential for coastal impacts across the West
Coast, particularly around the Norton Sound region, Northwest
Arctic Coast, and Yukon Delta region. As this system passes
through, another reinforcing low filling in behind will keep
rain chances going through the weekend as temperatures hold
steady courtesy of southerly flow. There will be increasing
confidence on specific impacts and details with this storm over
the coming days, so stay tuned as we track the latest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally cool and wet weather is expected across Northern
Alaska through the upcoming week, with periodic to heavy rain
across most of the area. The warmest and driest conditions today
are ongoing in the southeastern Interior from around Tok to
Northway, where a narrow stretch of clear skies and some minor
downsloping has allowed for temperatures to warm into the upper
60s to near 70 this afternoon, with min RH values in the low to
mid 40s. An isolated thunderstorm or lightning strike will also
be possible in this general area through this evening, with a
few having already occurred in the eastern Alaska Range.
Elsewhere, rain and rain showers will continue in most areas. On
Sunday, weak ridging will lift northward across the
southeastern portions of the Interior and with rain ending in
the area will allow for highs to warm into the low to mid 60s.
Min RH values in the Upper Tanana Valley and portions of the
Fortymile Country could reach into the mid to upper 40s but
should remain well above critical thresholds. By Sunday, another
system will begin moving into southwestern Alaska out of the
southeastern Bering Sea. This will lead to extensive rainfall in
Western Alaska Monday which will spread east across the Central
and Eastern Interior Tuesday, with highs falling into the mid
50s by Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Following a widespread 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain (locally
higher totals up to around 2 to 2.5 inches) across much of
Northern Alaska south of the Brooks Range over the past 48
hours, we have observed minor water level rises on area rivers
and streams, but no flooding is expected. Another series of
lows in the Bering Sea will keep precipitation chances going
through midweek, as attention quickly turns to a strong low
moving up through the Bering Wednesday into Thursday and Friday
with atmospheric river moisture. This system has the potential
for heavy rain across Western Alaska, with the bulk of rain at
this time expected across the Seward Peninsula and Northwest
Alaska. Stay tuned as we track the latest.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
MARINE...Brisk Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ814-
     815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ814-
     815-860-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ860.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SHORT TERM.....MacKay
LONG TERM......MacKay
COASTAL........MacKay
FIRE WEATHER...DS
HYDROLOGY......MacKay