850
FXAK69 PAFG 251500
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
600 AM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A very cold airmass will continue to build into Northern Alaska
out of the northeast early this week, plummeting temperatures well
below normal as winds ramp up and remain elevated along the
Arctic/West Coasts and across higher elevations. Widespread double
digit below zero temperatures reaching down to -20F to -50F are
expected to fill in regionwide through Tuesday, with even colder
wind chills at times. Snow chances through Monday will remain
confined to the Southeast Interior and North Slope/Brooks Range,
ahead of a more organized push of moisture Tuesday into Wednesday
expanding those chances areawide out of the southeast. While
snowfall accumulations through Wednesday are expected to remain
light overall, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the
Richardson Highway over Isabel Pass where 6-12" of snow is
possible. A mix of Blizzard Warnings, High Wind Warnings, and High
Wind Watches are now in effect for portions of the Arctic/West
Coasts to capture where the strongest winds and more significant
blowing snow is expected. Increasing southeasterly flow midweek
will lead to warming temperatures, with isolated snow chances
sticking around through next weekend.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Light snow will continue for the Upper Tanana Valley through
  Monday, as cold and dry conditions prevail across the rest of
  the Interior with a mix of sunshine and low clouds.

- Temperatures will trend colder through Tuesday as strong
  inversions persist, with coldest valley locations reaching down
  to -30F to -45F with even colder wind chills.

- Widespread light snow will build into the Interior out of the
  southeast Tuesday into Wednesday, with moderate to heavy snow
  possible for the Southeast Interior and Eastern Alaska Range.

- Winds will ramp up across higher elevations Sunday into Monday,
  peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday as gusty winds expand to the
  Middle Tanana Valley around Delta and through Alaska Range
  Passes.

- Warmer temperatures will also build in midweek, returning to
  more seasonal levels to finish out the week as drier conditions
  prevail Thursday onward.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Winds have already begun to ramp up across Western Alaska, with
  wind gusts of 30-60 mph becoming widespread along the West Coast
  and at St. Lawrence Island early this week. Winds will remain
  elevated through midweek with areas of blowing snow at times.

- Strong northeast will usher in a colder airmass to the region
  early this week, with coldest locations reaching down to -15F to
  -40F through midweek with even colder wind chills.

- High Wind Warnings remain in effect through Wednesday for St.
  Lawrence Island and Bering Straight Coast where a prolonged high
  wind event is expected with gusts as high as 60 mph.

- Conditions will remain dry across Western Alaska through most of
  the day on Tuesday, with isolated rain/snow showers possible for
  the southern Y-K Delta today.

- More widespread light snow chances will build in regionwide
  southeast to northwest late Tuesday into Wednesday, shifting to
  the West Coast for Thursday, as warner temperatures also work
  back in mid to late week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow and wind gusts of 30-40 mph will continue across the
  Eastern North Slope/Brooks Range today into tonight. Wind gusts
  up to 60 mph are expected tonight into Monday for the Eastern
  Beaufort Sea Coast where a Blizzard Warning is now in effect.

- Significantly colder temperatures have begun building in out of
  the north, with widespread double digit below zero temperatures
  expected to fill in regionwide through midweek. Coldest
  locations are expected to drop to around -30F to -50F.

- Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for portions of the
  Brooks Range and Dalton Highway for wind chills as cold as -70F.
  These advisories will likely need to be expanded further across
  the North Slope to capture the widespread frigid wind chills.

- Winds will remain elevated through midweek with gusts up to
  around 30-50 mph, peaking for most Tuesday into Wednesday. A
  High Wind Watch has been issued for the NW Arctic Coast where
  gusts up to 70 mph remain possible Tuesday through Wednesday
  night.

- Following a more organized push of snow on Monday for the
  Eastern North Slope where several inches of snow are expected,
  snow chances will become more isolated Tuesday ahead of another
  round of widespread light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday Night.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a 500 dm upper level low
centered over Banks Island in the Canadian Archipelago tracking
southwest over the High Arctic towards Northern Alaska. This upper
level system will work to bring about a significant pattern
change, supporting the return of much colder temperatures, gusty
winds, and increasing snow chances. Strong cold air advection out
of the northeast will allow for 850 mb temperatures to plummet to
around - 20C to -35C, supporting the return of widespread double
digit below zero air temperatures regionwide through midweek as
coldest locations drop to around -30F to -50F. Wind chills will be
even colder at times.

A tightening pressure gradient and stronger winds aloft have
already begun to shift into our area, which will lead to
increasing surface winds over the coming days particularly along
the Arctic/West Coasts and across higher elevations. As the
aforementioned upper level low tracks southwest towards the Bering
Sea, this will maintain and or strengthen winds through Tuesday
as strongest winds ultimately shift north Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Winds in stronger corridors along the coasts and higher
elevations will see wind gusts around 30- 50 mph, locally
stronger up to 60-70 mph especially for the NW Arctic Coast
southwest to St. Lawrence Island. A mix of warnings and watches
have been issued to capture where strongest winds are expected
through midweek. Additional wind and cold weather products will
likely be needed in future forecast issuance as confidence
increases on exact locations that could see high winds, extreme
cold temperatures, or both. Additionally, we will be monitoring
the blowing snow potential as well when to weigh a wind or winter
product issuance. On Tuesday, we are also looking at the potential
for strong gap winds to fill in through the Alaska Range Passes
and across the Middle Tanana Valley around Delta Junction with
wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph possible.

Snow chances through Monday will remain confined to the Eastern
North Slope/Brooks Range and Southeast Interior, ahead of a
regionwide expansion Tuesday into Wednesday. Through Monday,
models have trended a bit higher for snow amounts on the North
Slope to several inches with amounts favored to remain light
further southeast. The track of an upper level low over Northern
Alaska towards the Bering Sea will advect moisture from the Gulf
of Alaska during this timeframe, tapping into a larger plume of
moisture from a series of stronger surface lows. As a result, snow
chances will expand regionwide southeast to northwest Tuesday
into Wednesday with widespread light snow expected. Increasing
confidence supports more moderate to heavy snow potential across
the Southeast Interior and Eastern Alaska Range where a mix of
Winter Weather Advisories and or Winter Storm Warnings will likely
be needed to capture where the heaviest snow amounts are
expected. As of our latest forecast, a first look at totals in
this corridor show 3-6" in the valleys and 6-12"+ in the
mountains. A Winter Storm Watch has subsequently been issued for
the Eastern Alaska Range over Isabel Pass for Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through next Sunday.
Active weather continues into the start of the extended forecast
across Northern Alaska as an upper polar low traverses the state
and moves off into the Bering Sea Wednesday through the end of
next week. As the polar low heads west, the next pattern change
begins as southeasterly flow sets up across Eastern Alaska and
brings increased moisture and warmer temperatures back northward.
The arctic airmass quickly retreats into Siberia with a
significant increase in 850 mb and low level temperatures,
allowing for temperatures to return to more seasonable levels for
mid to late this week. As we progressively lose the pressure
gradient and elevated winds aloft, the strongest winds will
continue to shift north Wednesday into Thursday, as winds lessen
to gusts of 20-30 mph along the coasts and higher elevations
through the weekend and up to 40 mph for the NW Arctic Coast.

Snow chances will continue through next weekend as numerous
systems in the Gulf of Alaska send waves of energy northwards,
with our latest forecast at this time keeping amounts light and
supporting a fairly quiet weather pattern returning to our CWA.
Temperatures during this timeframe look stabilize or warm as most
locations see highs rise back above zero. While high temperatures
rise above zero for many locations by the end of the week, larger
diurnal ranges and sub zero lows will be common for most as
clearer skies at night allow for good radiational cooling.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809-811.
     Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ812.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ820-827.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>807-810-811-850-852-853-856-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

MacKay