290
FXAK69 PAFG 282338
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
338 PM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Rain will continue to track east over the Interior today into
  Saturday. Total amounts through Saturday are expected to be
  around 0.25-0.75 inches for most, locally drier in the Eastern
  Interior 0.10-0.25".

- Breezy southwesterly winds are expected across much of the
  Interior through Saturday, with gusts peaking around 25-35 mph
  for most locations. Strong southerly winds through the Alaska
  Range passes slowly weaken through Friday night.

- A brief period of drier weather expected Saturday before
  another round of rain moves across the Interior Sunday.
  Accumulations of 0.10-0.50 expected with this next round. Some
  snow accumulations are possible along Interior Summits,
  especially in the Alaska Range.

- Highs are expected to remain in the 50s and low 60s through
  the weekend, cooling to the mid 40s to mid 50s on Monday.
  Overnight lows will be continue to be in the 30s to low 40s.
  Monday night sees the coolest lows with some valleys nearing
  freezing.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Drier weather expected Friday evening through Saturday morning
  following the departing storm system.

- Another low moves southeast from the Chukchi Sea across
  Western Alaska Sunday into Monday bringing another round of
  widespread rain, high elevation snow, and breezy winds.

- Highs are expected to remain in the 50s and low 60s through
  Saturday, cooling to the mid 40s to mid 50s for Sunday and
  Monday. Overnight lows will be continue to be in the 30s to
  low 40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Rain and high elevation snow in the Brooks Range will continue
  to lift northeast into Saturday. Pockets of a wintry mix
  expected at times.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Atigun Pass
  through 4 PM Saturday for total snow accumulations at or
  above pass level around 3-6" with wind gusts up to 30-40 mph.
  A rain/snow mix is expected across lower elevations of the
  Brooks Range, with light accumulations possible.

- Drier conditions will build in out of the west Friday night
  into Saturday, with another low expected to work southeast
  from the Chukchi Sea late Saturday into Sunday. This brings
  another round of rain, high elevation snow, and breezy winds
  through Monday.

- Highs today will be in the 30s/40s for most with some lows 50s
  farthest south and west, trending warmer overall for Saturday
  and Sunday in the 40s and 50s as the Brooks Range stays cooler
  in the 30s/40s. Lows will be in the 20s/30s, warmer farther
  west in the 40s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and rainy weather is expected to continue through the
weekend. A cold low pressure system moves from the Chukchi Sea
across the Interior Sunday and Monday bringing additional rain
to much of the Interior. Some periods of snow is possible at
higher elevations with this system. Afterwards a large storm
enters the Western Bering Sea around midweek next week which
could impact the West Coast late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
At the start of the forecast period, Friday, a large region of
low pressure moves northeast across the Interior. The main rain
shield on the southeast side of the low starts falling apart as
it moves towards the Eastern Interior. Dry air is being ingested
into the low behind the rain shield. This is causing the more
stratiform rain to scatter into more showery and intermittent
precipitation across the Western and Central Interior Friday. As
this dry air mixes down towards the surface southwesterly winds
increase across the Interior. Higher resolution models are
suggesting consistent southwesterly wind gusts in the 25 to 35
mph range across the Central Interior Friday afternoon and
evening through much of Saturday. These winds may have
difficulty reaching the bottom of some Interior Valleys,
especially those sheltered from the southwest, overnight and
during the early morning hours, but are otherwise expected to be
consistently blustery. These winds weaken late Saturday as the
low itself fills in and higher pressure attempts to build in
from the south.

A large high pressure system in the North Pacific allows higher
pressure to build into the Bering Sea and Western Interior
behind the low through Saturday. Meanwhile a strong, cold, upper
level low moves east out of Siberia towards the Chukchi Sea. A
roughly 995 millibar surface low forms late Saturday in the
Chukchi Sea beneath this upper level feature, but stalls against
the building high pressure to the south. The upper level low
continues with little pause south and east towards the Gulf of
Alaska Sunday and Monday. As it moves across the Interior it
pulls colder temperatures with it as well as some lighter
showers.

Model ensembles show a large amount of spread in the potential
track of the surface low left in the Chukchi Sea early Sunday.
There is good concensus on a southeast or eastward track which
mainly depends on if it can get south of the Brooks Range while
keeping up with the upper level low. If it can, then it will
follow the upper level low to the south and rapidly lower the
pressure across the Interior back towards 1000 millibars. It
will help support widespread rain across the Western and Central
Interior with some snow possible at higher elevations. If it
stalls or ends up on the north side of the Brooks Range, we can
still expect some widespread rain with isolated pockets of snow
across the Interior, but accumulations will be a bit lighter.

Monday the upper level low reaches the Gulf of Alaska and forms
a new surface low beneath it. The support for precipitation
across the Interior weakens and the Interior starts to clear a
bit. Clearing skies on the back side of a cold low system
provides a good opportunity for Interior Valley low
temperatures to reach near freezing where skies clear. Recent
precipitation will limit this potential leaving frosts fairly
isolated.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At the start of the extended forecast period, late Monday, the
notably cold upper level low will have reached the Gulf of
Alaska and conditions will begin to moderate across the
Interior. Low pressure remains across the North Slope with some
moderate westerly winds and scattered showers expected through
the period. The most impactful system expected within the period
enters the Western Bering Sea Tuesday and strengthens through
Wednesday. Another low attempts to phase with the first in the
Bering and if successful, this low could reach strengths near
970 millibars. If unsuccessful, the lows will circle each other
and not become nearly as strong. Afterwards models suggest that
the low meanders around in the Western Bering without much of a
particular track, slowly weakening all the while. Should the low
phase well and become stronger, and then move towards the West
Coast we could anticipate another period of gusty winds,
moderate to heavy rainfall, and higher water levels across the
West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
No major concerns for now. High surf along the Norton Sound and
Yukon Delta Coast peaked early this morning and has since
lowered enough that there are no further concerns. Another large
low is expected in the Western Bering mid next week which could
cause some water level rises, but there is too much uncertainty
in its strength and track to suggest any particular impacts for
now.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A low continues to traverse east across the state today, supporting
additional widespread showers across the Interior. Precipitation
totals so far have ranged between 0.10" to 0.50" over the past 24
hours, with the highest rainfall totals west and north of Fairbanks.
As this low moves farther east, a secondary push of moisture behind
the leading front triggers another round of scattered showers
tonight into tomorrow morning. New rainfall amounts could range from
0.10" to 0.25". In addition to rainfall, southerly gap winds through
the Alaska Range Passes gradually diminish through the evening into
tonight, with a few lingering gusts around 35 mph possible. Winds
across the Central Interior shift towards the west/southwest tonight
into Saturday morning, with winds gusting between 25 to 35 mph
expected. These winds should remain stronger through Saturday before
weakening overnight into Sunday. The Upper Tanana Valley will
experience a briefer period of stronger winds, but should generally
range between 15 to 25 mph Saturday afternoon through the evening.

Upper level ridging fills in behind the low pressure system, with an
axis extending from the southwest Bering Sea. This area of high
pressure doesn`t stay in place for long though as a new Arctic low
starts move south from the Chukchi Sea Sunday into Monday. This new
low pressure system will be cooler and bit a drier than the previous
system, bringing temperatures down into the low to mid 40s across
the Central/Eastern Interior by Monday afternoon. Min RHs will
remain well above critical thresholds through the weekend and into
next week, with the driest spots still over the Upper Tanana Valley
around 40 to 50%.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Following around 1 to 2 inches of rain across much of the
West Coast and Western Interior, the rivers are higher than
normal. Additional rainfall is expected, generally in the 0.1 to
0.5 inch range, late Saturday through Monday as the next system
moves through the area from the northwest.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ809.
     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ825.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ847.
     High Wind Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for
     PKZ801>803-852-853.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ805-
     806-850.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ808-855.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ851.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Stokes
SYNOPSIS...Stokes
SHORT TERM...Stokes
LONG TERM...Stokes
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Stokes
FIRE WEATHER...Santiago
HYDROLOGY...Stokes