286
FXAK69 PAFG 011543
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
643 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
To open the New Year, cold conditions continue across the
Interior, with temperatures widely in the -20s to -40s F. On the
West Coast/St. Lawrence Island, gusty winds combined with falling
snow have yielded blowing snow conditions. Conditions have
likewise been windy with blowing snow on the eastern Arctic Coast,
and in both areas, these conditions will be ending by tonight.
Moving into the weekend, even colder temperatures are possible in
the Interior as the cold air cools further, with some areas
potentially seeing lows in the -50s or lower. Heading into next
week, a warmup is possible as a low pressure system moves into the
area and brings a wetter airmass and windier conditions.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Persistent cold weather in the Interior remains with clear and
  calm conditions and temperatures well below normal through the
  weekend.

- Widespread temperatures in the 30s/40s below zero or colder will
  continue with possible 50s/60s below zero in the coldest spots
  later this week.

- A long-term Cold Weather Advisory has been issued through the
  weekend for the Central/Eastern Interior. Areas of ice fog are
  ongoing in Fairbanks and are expected to expand in coverage
  heading through the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snow and gusty winds will continue in the Y-K Delta and St.
  Lawrence Island today, leading to low visibility at times.
  Additional snow accumulations in the Y-K Delta and at St.
  Lawrence Island of around 1-3" with wind gusts up to 40 mph
  possible.

- Widespread temperatures in the 20s/30s below zero are expected
  to continue, with 40s/50s below zero in the coldest spots,
  trending colder into the weekend.

- Another brief shot for snow is possible Saturday night into
  Sunday morning with a northeast-moving band. Accumulations will
  likely be light.

- A long-term Cold Weather Advisory has been issued through the
  weekend for portions of the Western Interior where temperatures
  as cold as 55 below zero are expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Gusty winds/light snow will continue to bring low visibilities
  on the Eastern Arctic Coast today, with conditions gradually
  improving into the evening. Minimal snow accumulations ending by
  later this morning and wind gusts up to 40 mph expected.

- A colder and drier airmass will build in through Friday and
  remain in place into early next week, with widespread
  temperatures in the 20s/30s below zero, with 40s/50s below zero
  in the coldest spots.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
To open the New Year, cold troughing extends southward from over
the Arctic across the Canadian border, with ridging over the
Aleutians and areas of the North Pacific to the south.
Temperatures at the 850 mb level are around -20 to -25 C across
the Eastern Interior, with surface temperatures broadly in the
-30s and -40s F with ice fog in spots. Similarly cold 850 mb
temperatures are in place across the eastern two-thirds of the
North Slope, with moderately warmer temperatures in the -20s and
-30s F. A shortwave trough is positioned over the Western Bering
Sea and is collocated with a ~998 mb surface low bringing gusty
easterly winds up to 40 mph and light snow to Western Alaska,
including St. Lawrence Island. A low with a rather high central
pressure of about 1030 mb (but relatively lower than the
surrounding air mass) is helping to drive westerly winds up to 40
mph across the eastern Arctic Coast, which has yielded blowing
snow and reduced visibilities of under 1/4 mile at times in the
area.

Heading into the weekend, the Bering Sea low will weaken while
very slowly drifting north, dissipating by Friday evening, and
snow over Western Alaska will end. The Arctic low north of
Kaktovik will shift north and out of the area during that same
time frame, with wind and blowing snow falling off over the
eastern Arctic Coast. Cold air aloft and at the surface will
continue to build in through the weekend in the Interior and on
the North Slope, with -50s and, more scarcely, -60s possible in
the coldest areas.

On Saturday, another low will move into the western Bering Sea,
bringing moderate easterly winds and a quick shot for some snow to
St. Lawrence Island and the YK Delta. Otherwise, most areas will
remain dry until late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon, when
yet another low moves into the area.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
By late Sunday morning, a strong low potentially in the 940s or
950s mb will move into the southern Bering Sea. A front extending
well to its east will bring precipitation, warmer air, and east
to southeast winds with gusts upwards of 40 to 50 mph to
Western/Southwestern Alaska. Moving further into the week, there
are uncertainties on the track. Most model/ensemble guidance
shift the primary low eastward across southwestern Alaska and
into the Gulf, with some bringing it to the east-northeast
paralleling the Alaska Range. Models are in general agreement on
the most extensive precipitation falling across W/SW Alaska; while
temperatures could warm significantly, precipitation will still
likely fall as snow in most areas, with multiple inches of
accumulation possible. Snow becomes possible in the Central and
Eastern Interior and the eastern North Slope beginning from
Monday through midweek as the low shifts eastward. Parts of the
Interior could see temperatures rise by 30 degrees or more during
this time frame.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ828-829-831>847-849-851-852.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

DS