040
FXAK69 PAFG 260945
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
145 AM AKDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Clear skies and dry conditions continue across much of northern
Alaska early this morning out ahead of a cold front building in
northwest to southeast from the Chukchi Sea. Precipitation has
already begun across northwest Alaska, and will continue shifting
southeast today into tonight and Monday. This front brings a band
of steady precipitation that lasts roughly 12 hours at any one
location and a seasonably cold air mass that allows for
accumulating snow potential north of the Arctic Circle. Snow
chances are greatest along the northern slopes of the Brooks
Range, especially at elevations above roughly 1000 ft where
temperatures quickly cool below freezing during the snowfall. This
includes a stretch of the Dalton Highway between Atigun Pass and
Sagwon where locally up to 6 inches of snow is likely to result in
hazardous travel. Saturated upslope flow continues as deeper
moisture/snowfall depart, which may result in a period of snow
showers and pockets of freezing drizzle lasting through Sunday
night. This front brings breezy winds, scattered rain showers, and
a few thunderstorm to the remainder of northern Alaska through
Monday. Drier conditions and a warming trend return ahead of the
next cold front that tracks across the state on Wednesday and
Thursday. Behind the second front, conditions look to trend warmer
and drier heading into next weekend with isolated showers
primarily confined to the coast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Mostly clear skies and light winds will continue through this
  afternoon across the Interior with lows in the 40s/50s (30s/40s)
  farther east and highs in the 60s to low 70s.

- A cold front tracks southeast across the Interior later today
  into Monday. A few afternoon thunderstorms are possible ahead of
  the front with scattered showers, wind gusts to around 20 to 30
  mph, and cooler temperatures expected heading into Monday. Winds
  will peak this afternoon and evening ahead of the front.

- Rainfall totals late Sunday into Monday are expected to remain
  light overall, with amounts greater than 0.10" most likely near
  the Brooks Range and Alaska Range. A few afternoon thunderstorms
  can`t be ruled out, especially across the southeast Interior on
  Monday.

- A brief warming and drying period sets in for Tuesday and
  Wednesday as highs return to the 60s to low 70s, ahead of
  another cold front moving southeast across the Interior late
  Wednesday into Thursday with isolated rain showers and breezy
  winds.

- Following the secondary midweek front, warmer and drier
  conditions are expected to return heading into next weekend, as
  highs return to the 70s to low 80s.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Temperatures will trend cooler today as a cold front tracks
  southeast from the Chukchi Sea across western Alaska through
  tonight with scattered rain showers and breezy northwest winds.

- Rainfall totals tonight through tonight are expected to remain
  light overall, with highest totals along the northwest Arctic
  Coast and and Kobuk Valley where around 0.10-0.30" of rain is
  expected.

- Warmer and drier conditions return for Monday and Tuesday ahead
  of another cold front moving into northwest Alaska Wednesday
  into Thursday with scattered rain showers and breezy winds.

- Following the secondary midweek front, warmer and drier
  conditions are expected to return heading into next weekend,
  with isolated showers along the coast. High will return to
  60s/70s for most, with locally cooler conditions along the
  coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Temperatures will trend much cooler today as a cold front tracks
  southeast from the Chukchi Sea across far northern Alaska
  through tonight and Monday morning, with scattered to widespread
  rain/snow showers and breezy northwest winds.

- This cold front brings a 12-18 hour period of steady
  precipitation as it shifts east tonight into Sunday. This begins
  as rain then transitions to snow as much colder air builds
  behind the front.

- The heaviest snow accumulations will be Sunday morning through
  Sunday evening across northern slopes of the Brooks Range (>1000
  ft elevation). Around 3-6" of snow is expected for Atigun Pass
  north to Toolik and Ice Cut Hill, with around 1-3" for Anaktuvuk
  Pass. Any snow totals farther north will be around a T-1".

- Rainfall/snow water equivalent totals through Monday will be
  around 0.20-0.40" regionwide, locally higher up to 0.75" across
  higher elevations of the southern Arctic Plains and in the
  Brooks Range.

- Dry conditions return from west to east Sunday into Monday as
  initially cooler temperatures see a warming trend through
  midweek. A secondary cold front remains on track to move in
  Wednesday into Thursday with scattered showers and gusty winds.

- Following the secondary midweek front, warmer and drier
  conditions are expected to return heading into next weekend,
  with isolated showers along the coast. High will return to
  60s/70s for most, with locally cooler conditions along the
  coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday Night.
Early morning satellite imagery shows an arctic trough and
associated frontal boundary tracking southeast from the Chukchi
Sea across northwest Alaska and western North Slope/Brooks Range.
Precipitation types stay mostly rain through this morning when the
front should be positioned roughly between Kaktovik and Wales. In
addition to precipitation chances, this front results in a sharp
wind shift farther north from gusty south-southwest winds
approaching 45 mph yesterday evening to becoming northwesterly up
to 35-40 mph behind the front.

Upslope flow north of the Brooks Range works to slow the fronts
progression and cool the thermal profile below freezing resulting
in a transition to snow through the morning hours on Sunday. For
the Dalton Highway, this means a rain to snow transition around
20Z/12PM local time. Potentially heavy snowfall rates persist for
about 6 hours after the transition allowing for up to 6" of heavy,
wet snow, with lighter snow filing in behind the heaviest rates.
The primary factors introducing uncertainty is accumulating snow
are the warm and sunny conditions yesterday raising ground
temperatures, timing of the rain/snow transition, and ultimately
how much of the QPF falls as rain vs snow. Even though there is
uncertainty, the heavy snowfall rates and surface temperatures
falling below freezing will overwhelm warm and wet antecedent
conditions and result in hazardous travel conditions along the
Dalton Highway north of Atigun Pass. Deep moisture shifts east
Sunday evening with model soundings showing a loss of saturation
in the DGZ. Models continue to show light QPF through Sunday night
within an upslope flow regime that is most likely to fall as snow
with pockets of freezing drizzle that could result in a light
glaze on top of the fresh snowfall.

Farther south, the front brings scattered rain showers across the
northwest interior on Sunday with most places south of the Kobuk
Valley receiving less than 0.10" of rain. There`s also potential
for a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon along and ahead of the
front across the northeast interior. The thunderstorm potential
continues Monday afternoon as the frontal boundary slows across
the southeast interior. With the front reaching Fairbanks Monday
morning, the storm chances should stay east of town on Monday.
Then there`s a general drying trend Monday night into Tuesday
ahead of the next Arctic trough that digs south toward the
northwest Arctic coast Tuesday afternoon. Early signals point to a
warmer system that should limit the winter weather threat, with
the bulk of precipitation expected across the North Slope. In
between fronts, conditions will trend warmer and drier overall.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 1 and 2...

A cold front is expected to move southeast from the Chukchi Sea
today. Gusty northwesterly winds are expected across the Kotzebue
Sound and Chukchi Sea Coast Sunday following the front. Gusts on
Sunday are expected to be between 25 and 35 mph. Water levels are
expected to rise to 0.5 to 1.5 feet above the normal high tide
line late Sunday, peaking overnight and diminishing rapidly Monday
morning. Residents along the coast should remain mindful of minor
water level rises and take action to protect property on the
beach.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...Wednesday through next Sunday.
At the start of the extended forecast period Wednesday, the
overall pattern is dominated by 3 main features: a very large
upper level low near the North Pole, a building ridge in the
Bering Sea, and a low in the Gulf of Alaska connected by a trough
to the North Pole low. A front moving around the North Pole low
approaches the Western Arctic Coast Wednesday into Thursday. The
ridge in the Bering simultaneously attempts to push east into the
Western Interior. The ridge is expected to keep the front slightly
farther north, but a period of gusty winds and rain is expected
to sweep across the Northern Interior and North Slope Wednesday
into Thursday.

After the front passes there is a larger divergence in the
potential forecast. A stronger frontal passage or one that stalls
would restrict the ridge in its push into the Interior, keeping
conditions relatively cooler and more showery than they otherwise
would be. A weaker front or stronger ridge would enhance warming
and drying on the back end of the front leading to a more
seasonable end of the week. Currently the warmer and drier
solution looks more likely. However, yet another low rotates
around the North Pole low and towards the West Coast Friday into
the weekend. Developing higher pressure over the Interior may keep
it in the Bering Sea through the weekend. The forecast for this
feature is currently too uncertain to accurately suggest any
potential impacts.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
By Sunday morning, an arctic trough and the associated cold front
will span roughly from the Seward Peninsula to the Central Brooks
Range to Kaktovik, bringing cooler air, in behind it.
Temperatures in the Central and Eastern Interior will have a
chance to reach around 70F before the cold front arrives later in
the afternoon. Winds will become gusty along with the front,
westerly ahead of the front in the Interior, but turning more
northerly behind the front closer to the West Coast as well as
through the Alaska Range. Winds will gust up to 25 mph for much of
northern Alaska on Sunday afternoon. Rainfall amounts associated
with this front should be light, generally less than a tenth
except on the North Slope and in the Brooks Range where between a
quarter and half an inch is expected. There is potential for
thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front in the Eastern
Interior, but they will be isolated.

For the start of next week, a cool air mass will continue to
linger over Northern Alaska. Monday will be the coldest day for
most areas of the Interior. Max temperatures will likely be 10 to
15 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than normal, peaking in the low 60s
or 50s. Conditions should remain moderate, but follow a gradual
warming trend through the rest of week, until a ridge provides the
chance for temperatures above 70 again for the latter half of the
week.

Another weaker trough looks like it will come in from the
northwest again on Wednesday. Although the exact impacts from this
trough are slightly uncertain, it looks like the Interior will
receive another round of light precipitation, with a less
significant drop in temperatures.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SHORT TERM.....MacKay
LONG TERM......Stokes
FIRE WEATHER...Troyke