890
FXAK69 PAFG 072154
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
154 PM AKDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front has brought much cooler temperatures to
most of the Interior and West Coast which will last through most
of the week. Snow showers continue through the week east of Tanana
as well as shortwaves aloft move through the southerly flow. A
strong low will bring 2-4 inches of snow to the Yukon Delta
through tonight with periods of low visibility and breezy
conditions. On the North Slope, breezy westerly winds near
Kaktovik will diminish later this afternoon. Visibility is also
expected to improve then.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- A cold front has pushed east across most of the Interior with
  highs in the teens and 20s expected today except for the far
  eastern Interior where temperatures remain in the 30s and 40s.
  Gradual warming expected through the remainder of the week.

- Scattered snow showers continue through the week, though they
  will be more isolated on Tuesday and Thursday. Total snow accumulations
  up to an inch possible in the valleys with 1 to 3 inches
  possible in the hills.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A strong low will move southeast across the Yukon Delta through
  tonight and bring 2 to 4 inches of snow to the Yukon Delta.
  Brief periods of blowing snow and low visibility are also
  likely.

- Below normal temperatures persist through the week with highs
  in the single digits and teens and lows from 5 above to 15
  below. Interior locations will gradually warm through the week
  with highs reaching the 20s by Thursday.

- A weak frontal boundary will bring light snow showers mainly
  from the Seward Peninsula north on Tuesday and Wednesday.
  Accumulations will be less than 1 inch.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Breezy westerly winds near Kaktovik diminish later this
  afternoon. Visibility is also expected to improve then.

- Isolated snow showers are possible throughout the rest of the
  week across the area, with up to 4 inches along the south slopes
  of the Brooks Range and less than an inch along the Arctic
  Coast.

- High temperatures will be mainly in the single digits with
  slight warming through the week. The Brooks Range will reach
  into the 20s by Friday. Lows will be zero to 15 below.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...A deep closed low aloft lies
just north of Point Hope with troughing extending southeast to
another low aloft in the Gulf of Alaska. Southerly flow exists
over the Mainland east of Tanana with various weak shortwaves
moving through the flow. At the surface, both of these lows aloft
are vertically stacked with surface lows beneath them. Surface
lows also exist on the southwest corner of Banks Island and at the
Yukon Delta. This low near the Yukon Delta is bringing
precipitation to the area as it tracks southeast to near
Dillingham by Tuesday morning. A north to south oriented cold
front will move back and forth across the central Interior this
week with areas on the west side of the front seeing much colder
temperatures than over the weekend. Southerly flow will persist
across the Interior through Friday as the low near Point Hope
persists nearly in place. This will bring continued shortwaves
bringing snow showers mainly east of Tanana.

We will make few changes to the forecast today as the inherited
forecast mostly remains on track. We will favor the NBM and
Canadian models for short term updates, and will increase
northwest winds across the Upper Tanana Valley to a few knots
above model guidance through this evening to match current
observations along the cold front. Opted to cancel the Winter
Weather Advisory for St. Lawrence Island preemptively as
forecasted strong winds are no longer predicted to align with the
period of snowfall that his mostly passed to create low
visibility. Also let the Special Weather Statement for Kaktovik
expire as conditions slowly improve there. No land based hazards
will be issued on this shift today.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Large scale troughing persists as a low pressure system centered
over the West Coast moves southeast toward the Gulf by Saturday.
As the low moves south, temperatures along the West Coast are
expected to be below normal while temperatures across the North
Slope look to remain near seasonable norms. Across the Interior,
temperatures are expected to be above normal as southerly flow
increases. Models disagree on how warm temperatures are expected
to reach in the Interior, but we are leaning more towards the
Canadian solution of highs in the low to mid 40s by the start of
next week. Wrap around precipitation is possible for the Interior
as large amounts of moisture is brought in from the Gulf.
Precipitation across the West Coast and North Slope will mainly be
light and showery in nature throughout the period.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
&&

$$

Chriest/Santiago