803
FXAK69 PAFG 242154
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
154 PM AKDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered showers around the Central and Eastern Interior as
  a weak warm front pushes through. Rainfall totals will be
  around 0.10" or less for most of the area from Fairbanks east.

- Tomorrow is a soaker with a widespread 0.25" to 0.50" of rain.
  Lowest amounts will likely be in the Upper Tanana Valley.

- Winds through the AK Range will gust upwards of 60 mph in
  Isabel Pass and 50 mph in Windy Pass Tuesday afternoon.

- Rain showers persist on Wednesday. Thursday comes with mixed
  sun and clouds.

- Another front arrives sometime Thursday night/Friday morning
  with rain expected once again.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Temperatures remain in the low to mid 50s through the week.

- Winds and rain will gradually diminish today as a front from
  the Bering Sea low moves east.

- Tomorrow will start off with showers but the afternoon turns
  out fairly nice with peaks of sunshine. Wednesday comes with
  mixed sun and clouds as well.

- Clouds increase on Thursday with another Bering Sea low
  bringing gusty wind and moderate rain. Expect wind gusts over
  40 mph Thursday afternoon with 0.50" to 1.00" of rain from the
  Seward Peninsula south, with 0.25" to 0.50" north of the
  Seward Peninsula.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Temperatures in the 50s/low 60s through tomorrow, then a cool
  down on Wednesday with highs in the 30s/40s. Remaining cold in
  the eastern Brooks Range on Thursday while warming into the
  40s/50s in the Western half of the North Slope.

- Rain showers along the North Slope with widespread rain
  developing in the Brooks Range today. Rain transitions to snow
  tomorrow afternoon/evening and continuing through Wednesday.

- Snowfall totals through Wednesday potentially near 3 to 6
  inches in the highest terrain while remaining around 1 to 3
  inches in Atigun Pass and 1 inch or less in Anaktuvuk Pass.

- Thursday is drier with some sun in the Brooks Range. Remaining
  cloudy with isolated showers near the coast.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A Bering Sea low has brought active weather back to the West
Coast and Interior in the form of rain, breezy conditions and
high surf. Rain will be moving across the Interior today and
tomorrow with widespread rainfall amounts near or over 0.25" in
most spots from the Brooks Range south. As this low departs,
another front moves across Northern Alaska with light rain
Wednesday into Thursday. The Brooks Range and eastern North
Slope will likely see more snow with this. Accumulations remain
fairly low along the Dalton and in populated areas while the
peaks of the Brooks Range have the potential for several inches
of snow. Otherwise, another low moves into the eastern Bering
by Thursday afternoon with another round of rain and wind for
Western Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A Bering Sea low will continue to push into the Chukchi Sea
today bringing areas of rain and gusty wind to much of Northern
Alaska. As this lows cold front pushes east, there will be
widespread light to moderate rain over the Central/Eastern
Interior tomorrow. Rain is also expected in the Brooks Range
with showers on the North Slope. As the front treks east, the
Eastern Brooks Range likely sees a changeover from rain to snow
Tuesday afternoon while rain diminishes to showers in the
Central Interior. Widespread snow is likely Tuesday night to
Wednesday in the Brooks Range with snowfall totals potentially
near 3 to 6 inches in the highest terrain while remaining around
1 to 3 inches in Atigun Pass and 1 inch or less in Anaktuvuk
Pass. Rainfall totals look to be around 0.25" to 0.50" for most
of the Central and Eastern Interior by Tuesday evening. The
Upper Tanana likely sees totals on the lower end of this range.
Winds will increase from the south Tuesday afternoon with gusts
up to 60 mph in Isabel Pass and 50 mph in Windy Pass. It`ll be a
brief wind event as most of the wind drops off during the
evening.

Moving forward, Wednesday keeps showers over much of the
Interior while the West Coast and Western Interior dries out due
to brief, transient ridging. Snow in the Brooks Range will be
lessening in coverage towards the evening and overnight hours.
Thursday will be the pick of the week in the Central/Eastern
Interior and Brooks Range with mixed clouds and sun and a brief
warm up into the 50s/low 60s. However, the West Coast and
Western Interior will be clouding up once again as another
Bering Sea low takes aim. Fortunately this shouldn`t come with
many coastal concerns besides minor rises in the Yukon Delta.
However, there will be yet another round of moderate rain and
gusty winds. Much of Western Alaska can expect wind gusts over
40 mph Thursday afternoon with 0.50" to 1.00" of rain from the
Seward Peninsula south, with 0.25" to 0.50" north of the Seward
Peninsula. The rain from this system should make it into the
Interior by Friday and this will be elaborated on in the long
term forecast. Overall, an active week of weather will prevail
for much of Northern Alaska.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As mentioned in the short term discussion, another low enters
the Bering on Thursday. Models are in relative consensus that
this storm will be fast-moving, and as a result, water rises
look to be smaller than the storm currently in the Bering.
Though the system will weaken as it moves inland on Friday and
into Saturday, current guidance has wetting rains extending from
Fairbanks west by Saturday evening. Though models are in pretty
good agreement on the pattern from Saturday onward, there are
some considerable discrepancies between them, especially among
deterministic models. The Euro and Canadian models have the main
upper level low moving into the Gulf of Alaska, while a
secondary smaller vort max moves over the Alaska Range
Friday/Saturday, which could strengthen winds in the passes as
it moves over. The low looks to move south once it hits the
Northern Alaska Panhandle, limiting the potential for wraparound
moisture getting into the Upper Tanana Valley.

Another upper level low moves onshore over the Northwest Arctic
Coast towards the end of the extended period, though models are
not in agreement regarding its timing and intensity. This low
has the potential to pull colder air far into the Interior,
including in and around Fairbanks. If cold air is able to make
it into the Interior, temperatures feel a lot more fall-like,
with highs in the upper 40s/low 50s and lows nearing freezing,
which seems fitting as meteorological fall begins next Tuesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
After today, water levels will remain elevated tomorrow and
return to mostly normal by Wednesday. Another low arrives on
Thursday with the potential for increasing water levels again
Thursday night into Friday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty
in the track of the low, but water levels should be lower than
what we saw with this last event.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers in the Interior today from a weak warm front.
Tomorrow a more robust cold front will trek east across the
Interior bringing widespread rain. Rainfall totals will be
around 0.25" to 0.50" by tomorrow night, the only exception may
be in the Upper Tanana Valley where rainfall totals end up near
the lower end of this scale. The forecast for Tok is tough, but
with the strength of the front and available mid-level moisture,
rain should be expected by Tuesday evening/night. Speaking of
gusty winds, there`ll be a brief period of southerly gap winds
in the AK Range. Gusts in Isabel Pass will be upwards of 60 mph,
with 50 mph in Windy Pass. Tuesday night and Wednesday will be
breezy across most of the Interior with southwesterly gusts
upwards of 25 to 35 mph, highest in the terrain and lowest in
the valleys.

Temperatures will be warmest today with highs in the 60s and
near 70 in the Upper Tanana with min RHs between 35% and 45%.
The remainder of the Interior will have min RHs around 45% to
55% or higher. Temperatures cool tomorrow across most of the
Interior as the rain moves through, expect highs in the low 60s.
The Upper Tanana will be in the upper 60s to near 70 once again.
Wednesday and Thursday comes with highs in the 50s to near 60.
Min RHs are expected to be in the 40s to near 50% on Wednesday
in the Upper Tanana, then 40% to 50% over much of the Interior
on Thursday with a couple of upper 30s in the Upper Tanana.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding concerns as the rivers remain fairly low, but
with continued chances for rain this week and into the weekend,
there will likely be minor rises on the rivers.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ803-
     817-853-854.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for
     PKZ804>806-811-852.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for
     PKZ807>810-855-856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT
     Tuesday for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ813-
     814.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT
     Tuesday for PKZ858.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Bianco
SYNOPSIS...Bianco
SHORT TERM...Bianco
LONG TERM...Schlezinger
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Bianco
FIRE WEATHER...Bianco
HYDROLOGY...Bianco