587
FXAK69 PAFG 041547
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
647 AM AKST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery weather continues across Western Alaska, with an area of
snow moving across the Western Interior persisting through
Wednesday. The next shot for more significant weather comes in the
form of a couple waves of snow. The first will begin late
Wednesday and early Thursday, and while there is still
uncertainty, it will most likely will have lower accumulations in
the Middle Tanana Valley with better accumulations over the Yukon
Flats, eastern Brooks Range, and the eastern half-to-two-thirds
of the North Slope. The second round could potentially be more
robust for areas that miss out on the first round and could bring
up to a few inches of snow to much of the Central and Eastern
Interior. Parts of the south-central Interior/Upper Kuskokwim
Valley as well as the Brooks Range could see several inches of
fluffy/efficient snowfall. Gusty winds will weaken a bit on the
eastern Arctic coast but will strengthen again on Thursday, which
could combine with falling snow to yield reduced visibilities. Colder
weather is more likely moving into the weekend, with many inland
areas starting to see lows drop into the single digits or lower.

&&

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Better snow chances return Wednesday night into the weekend.
  While there is uncertainty, most areas have a chance for at
  least an inch. With high snow-to-liquid ratios possible, some
  areas could see up to six inches over a multi-day period. Higher
  amounts up to 6 inches or more are expected for the Dalton Hwy
  summits and within portions of the Yukon Flats, as well as the
  White Mtns and eastern Brooks Range (especially for the
  southeastern-facing slopes).

- Many areas of the Interior will see highs drop from the mid-low
  20s into the upper teens tomorrow, with steadier or weakly
  cooling temperatures through Saturday. Lows will be in the low
  teens or single digits during this time frame.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered ocean effect snow showers will be possible today
  along the Bering and Chukchi Sea coastlines and over the Seward
  Peninsula.

- With the exception of parts of the Lower Yukon Valley, an
  additional 1-3 inches of snow is possible from this morning
  through Thursday morning for most of the Western Interior and
  the Bering Sea coastline. Another few inches of snow will be
  possible for the Western Interior east of the Yukon River from
  then through Friday morning. Higher amounts will be possible in
  the Kuskokwim River Valley.

- Highs in the upper 20s with lows in the low-to-mid 20s are
  expected for St. Lawrence Island. In the Western Interior, highs
  cool from the mid 20s today into the teens by Friday, with lows
  falling from the high teens into the single digits. The West
  Coast will see highs in mid/upper 20s and lows in the low
  20s/high teens.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Easterly winds have diminished across all but the easternmost
  parts of the Arctic coast, where they are gusting to under 40
  mph. They will strengthen a bit on Thursday and combine with
  falling snow, which may yield some blowing snow with restricted
  visibilities.

- Through Wednesday morning, light snow of up to a couple inches
  will be possible over the Central North Slope. An additional few
  inches of snow, perhaps more with high snow ratios, will be
  possible over the western two-thirds of the North Slope from
  Wednesday through Saturday.

- Cloudy skies will finally see some breaks over the eastern North
  Slope today, which will help drop highs into the teens and
  single digits in the Arctic plains and eastern Arctic coast and
  lows into the single digits or lower from tonight into late
  week. Portions of the Arctic plains could have highs below zero
  by the weekend.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Troughing once again persists over Western Alaska, with the center
of a ~520 dm upper low over the Lower Yukon and Kuskokwim River
Valleys. Showery conditions will prevail across the Bering and
Chukchi Seas today, with movement switching to out of the north as
a low passes through the Bering to the southwest and cold high
pressure over Russia strengthens. A few inches of snow will fall
through Wednesday night / early Thursday morning across most of
the Western Interior and West Coast with a wave moving through the
area from the south.

While the winds on the Arctic coast have weakened everywhere
except Barter Island and are expected to fall of there too today,
the pressure gradient south of the Arctic high will tighten late
this week and could bring low-end gale conditions to the area,
which could combine with falling snow to yield low visibilities.

Wednesday night into Thursday, a shortwave moving along the east
side of the longwave trough with shoot to the north/northwest
across the Central/Eastern Interior and bring from a few to
several inches of snow to the area. There is still decent model
disagreement on prognosis for exact totals, in part due to the
movement of the trough and associated moisture. For the 06Z GFS
solution, the trough moves in a more south-to north orientation,
leaving the Middle Tanana Valley mostly dry but bringing light
snow to the Yukon Flats, Brooks Range, and southeastern Interior.
Thereafter, a secondary shortwave moves off a low in the Gulf and
out of the southeastern Interior northwest toward the Brooks
Range. This drops little snow in the dry spots from earlier but
produces potentially several inches of snow across the south-
central (including the Upper Kuskokwim Valley) and the west-
central Interior, including the eastern Norton Sound coast. The
00Z GEM has a similar track of the first shortwave to the 06Z GFS
and is thus similarly but not quite as dry across Fairbanks and
vicinity, but it is much moister with the second round of snow,
with a far more southeast-to-northwest track, dropping a few
inches in the GFS`s dry spots while also coating the Brooks Range
and North Slope. The 00Z ECMWF has the longwave trough a bit
farther east and when it loops the 1st shortwave north along the
Canadian border, it draws in much more moisture and leaving at
least an inch of snow across most of the Interior. It also follows
a similar track to the GEM with the second shortwave/round of
snow and thus yields the most prolific solution for broad snow
totals through the weekend, especially for the Western Yukon
Flats.

&&

HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time. Freeze up is beginning across the area
and is expected to continue as colder temperatures persist.

&&

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
During the extended time frame, conditions still look generally
unsettled across the Bering Sea, with most models bringing a
strong low into the Western Bering Sea Saturday but dipping it to
the south or weakening it in place by Monday. It could bring a
period of offshore winds and some snow or rain to the West Coast
with a leading front but otherwise seems likely to remain well
offshore. Additional storms may follow, although there is no
indication of any impactful coastal storms in Western Alaska at
the current time. Inland this weekend, following the first round
of snow on Wednesday night/Thursday, up to a few inches of
additional snow in the Interior is possible. This should generally
shift north and could bring similar totals to the North Slope.
With high snow-to-liquid ratios possible, what snow falls will
likely be light and fairly dry. There may be a potent shot for
snowfall along the eastern border on Monday, although uncertainty
is low at this point.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ814.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-859.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ815-859-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

DS