674
FXAK69 PAFG 222334
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
334 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...The pattern change across Northern Alaska continues as
the warmer and drier conditions earlier in the week have given way
to rainier and cooler conditions through the end of the week, with
an unsettled pattern looking to stick around into early next week. A
front situated over the northeastern Interior this afternoon will
continue to lift northeastward with scattered rain showers and
breezy winds as a more organized low in the Bering Sea moves onshore
into Southwest Alaska this afternoon and evening. Widespread rain
and gusty winds will accompany this low as it tracks inland Thursday
into Friday, as cooler temperatures settle in region-wide.
Associated with the Bering Sea low, minor coastal impacts such as
high surf are possible, but should remain minimal, overall. While
any thunderstorm chances over the coming days will remain isolated
in nature given the cooler airmass building-in, there is increasing
confidence for primarily a rain/snow mix and a pocket or 2 of
freezing rain for the mainly for portions of the North Slope and
Brooks Range later in the day Thursday into Friday. As this mid-to-
late week system shifts eastward Friday into Saturday, warmer and
drier conditions will progressively build-in out of the west ahead
of an arctic trough working southeastward out of the Chukchi Sea
late Saturday into Sunday. This secondary system will support
another round of rain/snow mix for the Brooks Range and North Slope
and rain for areas to the south, along with breezy winds and
subsequent cooler temperatures.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- A front situated over the far northeastern Interior Wednesday
afternoon that has been continuing to bring some isolated to
scattered rain showers is lifting northeastward and departing the
region throughout the rest of the day as drier conditions continue
to build-in out of the southwest. This drying trend will be short
lived as widespread rain moves in for late Wednesday into Thursday,
continuing through Friday morning as a Bering Sea low moves inland.

- Additional rainfall amounts through Friday are expected to be
around 0.25-0.75" regionwide with locally higher totals around  1-2"
in the Alaska Range and locally lighter totals around 0.10-0.25" in
the Upper Tanana Valley around Tok and Northway.

- Cooler temperatures and breezy winds will accompany the
aforementioned system, with highs in the 60s/70s today dropping to
the 50s/60s for Thursday and Friday. Winds across the Interior will
peak this evening into Friday with generally gusts to around 20-30
mph expected. Locally stronger winds will continue through Alaska
Range Passes this evening through Thursday where Wind Advisories are
in effect.

- Dry conditions will build-in out of the west on Friday into Friday
night as best rain chances shift to the east of Fairbanks. Warmer
temperatures will return over the weekend as highs rebound into the
60s/70s.

- An arctic front remains on track to work southeastward through the
Interior Sunday into Monday with widespread rain, breezy winds, and
cooler temperatures.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A front lifting northeastward, exiting the Western Interior, has
been continuing to bring some isolated to scattered rain showers. It
will continue lifting northeastward throughout the day and exit the
region ahead of a Bering Sea low that will be moving onshore later
today.

- That Bering Sea low will move onshore into Western Alaska late
today, bringing widespread rain and gusty winds through Thursday.
The strongest winds will remain west/northwest along the West Coast,
with the primary concerns continuing to center around high surf and
minor coastal flooding. See the Coastal Hazard Potential discussion
below for additional information.

- Water levels will rise a bit with each high tide tonight through
Friday morning. A High Surf Advisory has been issued for the Yukon
Delta coast region from 4pm today until 4pm Thursday for Water
levels 1-2 ft above the highest high tide line. Localized beach
erosion may occur. Fortunately, impacts are expected to be minor.

- Additional rainfall amounts through Thursday are expected to be
around 0.25-0.75" regionwide with locally higher totals around  1-2"
in the Alaska Range and 0.75-1.25" for the Upper Kuskokwim near
McGrath and Nikolai, along with locally lighter totals around 0.10-
0.25" for the NW Arctic Coast and Kotzebue Sound region.

- Gusty winds will accompany this system as it moves inland, as
temperatures hold relatively steady. Wind gusts will peak tonight
into Thursday and Thursday night around 30-45 mph along the West
Coast and 20-30 mph in the Western Interior.

- Dry conditions will build in out of the west on Thursday and
continue through Friday. A much weaker low will move into Southwest
Alaska on Saturday with isolated to scattered light rain showers
possible.

- An arctic front remains on track to work southeast through Western
Alaska late Saturday into Sunday with widespread rain, breezy winds,
and cooler temperatures.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- A front will continue to lift northeast towards the Eastern Arctic
Coast this afternoon into tonight with scattered to widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Small pockets of light freezing
drizzle will also be possible along the Arctic Coast from Utqiagvik
to Point Lay.

- A low moving into Western Alaska from the Bering Sea will move
into the Interior this afternoon through Thursday, meeting a colder
airmass situated over the High Arctic. Steadier rain will move into
the Brooks Range on Thursday as colder air pushes south, supporting
a transition to a rain/snow mix with isolated pockets of freezing
rain. Storm total snowfall accumulations Thursday through Friday
morning could be 3 to 5 inches, however with surface temperatures
above freezing, the snow is not anticipated to stick to the road.

- The bulk of precipitation expected through Friday is expected to
remain focused in the Brooks Range, Central/Eastern Arctic Plains,
and Eastern Arctic Coast. Precipitation totals around  0.25-0.75"
are expected in the Brooks Range, with around  0.10-0.40" for
eastern portions of the Arctic Plains and Coast. Locally lighter
totals around a T-0.10" are expected for the Central and Western
Arctic Coast and Western Arctic Plains.

- Gusty winds will accompany this system as it passes over the North
Slope, as temperatures see a cooling trend. Wind gusts will peak out
late Thursday into Friday with up to around 30-45 mph regionwide,
strongest in the Brooks Range and around Kaktovik.

- Warmer and drier conditions later in the day Friday into Saturday
will be short lived as an arctic front remains on track to work
southeast into far Northern Alaska late Saturday into Sunday with a
rain/snow mix, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Friday Night.

Our primary forecast attention is transitioning to the low
approaching in the Bering Sea. The latest CAMS and ensemble models
remain in good agreement on the track and intensity of this system,
showing it maintaining a similar strength of around mid-990s mb as
it tracks northeastward toward the Norton Sound. The low pressure
center is expected to make landfall in the Interior Norton Sound
overnight tonight into early Thursday morning, as widespread rain
and gusty winds have been building into Western Alaska throughout
the day today & will continue into into tonight. Rain and wind will
shift east into the Interior this afternoon into tonight & Thursday,
as broad upper level troughing encompasses Northern Alaska. A front
stalled over the High Arctic will get wrapped into the broad
circulation Thursday into Friday, as colder air from the Chuckhi and
Beaufort Seas meets a warm and moist airmass over the Interior with
the North Slope and Brooks Range in between. This setup will remain
conducive for precipitation to favor a rain/snow mix in the
Central/Eastern Brooks Range and Eastern Brooks Range where small
pockets of freezing rain/drizzle will also be possible. Storm total
snowfall accumulations could be 3 to 5 inches, however with surface
temperatures above freezing, the snow is not anticipated to stick to
the road. Even ahead of this front dropping south, temperatures
hovering around freezing from Utqiagvik to Point Lay today combined
with the frontal boundary and low stratus could lead to small areas
of light freezing drizzle. Pertaining to the aforementioned pockets
of freezing drizzle, it is important to note that these areas have
been experiencing warm temperatures for quite some time. So, SFC
temps are relatively warm, making chances for significant freezing
rain/freezing drizzle unlikely. Following an active thunderstorm day
yesterday with over 2000 cloud to ground lightning strikes in Alaska
and the Yukon, thunderstorms will trend to being much more isolated
over the coming days as cooler temperatures and a more stable
airmass work to suppress the bulk of convection.

Drier conditions will build in west to east Thursday into Friday
across Northern Alaska as a ridge of high pressure shifts inland
from the Bering Sea following the exiting low. Precipitation totals
through Friday have remained consistent with previous forecasts,
showing a broad 0.25-0.75" across much of Northern Alaska as driest
locations including the NW Arctic Coast and Upper Tanana Valley
around Tok and Northway pick up around a T-0.25". Locally higher
amounts around 1-2" will also be possible in the Alaska Range. When
it comes to potential wintry precipitation across the North Slope
and Brooks Range, warm ground temperatures should limit
accumulations with the exception to that being higher elevations of
the Brooks Range including Atigun Pass which could see light snow
amounts of a few inches to accumulate. With respect to freezing
rain/drizzle amounts, expect those to remain light and focused along
the Arctic Coast.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Eastern Alaska Range north
of Trims Camp along the Richardson through 7 PM Thursday. The
current brief lull in the winds during the daytime hours today will
ramp back up into this evening and Thursday morning as that low in
the Bering Sea approaches. This Wind Advisory has been expanded to
include the Windy Pass area from this evening into Thursday morning.
Winds with the Bering Sea low will peak as the low tracks over the
state, with peak gusts along the coast around 30-45 mph and around
20-30 mph in the Interior with locally higher spots. See the Coastal
Hazard Potential section below for details on what we are expecting
with this wind for our coastal communities along the West Coast from
the Yukon Delta north to the Kotzebue Sound.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 1 through 3...

A Special Weather Statement remains in effect for potential coastal
impacts tonight to Friday morning from a Bering Sea low. Latest
model guidance is coalescing on a more southerly track towards the
YK Delta region as well as minor storm intensification to around the
mid 990s mb is expected before moving ashore into Norton Sound. This
system will likely bring widespread moderate to heavy rain along the
coast with gusty west/northwest winds up to 45 mph (40 kts) this
afternoon through Thursday night. Minor coastal impacts such as high
surf for the Yukon Delta, Norton Sound, and areas north of the
Bering Strait are possible. Water levels will rise slightly with
each high tide tonight through Friday morning. The highest water
level rises will be in Eastern Norton Sound, around 1 to 3 feet
above the normal high tide line. General water level rises around
0.5 to 1.5 feet are expected from Golovin to Nome. A High Surf
Advisory has been issued for the Yukon Delta coast region from 4pm
today until 4pm Thursday for Water levels 1-2 ft above the highest
high tide line. Localized beach erosion may occur. Water will
approach the road to the Hooper Bay Airport, but should not inundate
the  airport or the road. Fortunately, significant impacts are not
anticipated. We will continue to update as necessary. In the
meantime, the West Coast from the Yukon Delta to Kivalina should
continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Stay tuned to
weather.gov/fairbanks for the latest updates.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday evening an arctic cold front will dig south towards the
North Slope. This cold front will bring 850 mb temperatures ranging
from 0C to -7C with the coldest temperatures in the Brooks Range.
There is some slight timing differences between the models, which
could make precipitation types messy. The current expectations would
be precipitation starts as rain during the day, and during the
overnight hours it transitions to snow. Snow accumulations would be
light due to surface temperatures well above freezing, but with
gusty winds, blowing snow could be a concern.

As this cold front moves into the Interior on Sunday, another round
of widespread precipitation and gusty winds are possible. Behind the
front a weak ridge will build across the Interior from the Bering
Sea. This would help to bring temperatures back to near normal as
early as Monday. While a ridge builds across the Interior, low
pressure will remain over the Northwest Arctic. This would create a
tight pressure gradient, keeping gusty northwesterly winds and
cooler temperatures in the Northwest Arctic.

Through the middle of next week, model guidance has not been in good
agreement. The GFS/GEFS solutions would keep troughing over a
majority of the mainland. This trough would keep us locked into a
cooler and wetter pattern through at least Thursday. The ECMWF
and the ECMWF ensemble as well the Canadian Ensembles show a ridge
developing over Mainland Alaska, keeping temperatures more
seasonable.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns are expected through the end of this week.
Current lightning activity across northern Alaska has plenty of
wetting rains with it. A Wind Advisory has been issued for southerly
wind gusts peaking out as high as 55-60 mph through Isabel Pass into
Thursday evening & for Windy Pass this evening into Thursday
morning. Fuels were marginal for supporting large fire growth in
that area.

A low in the Bering Sea will move across northern Alaska in a moist,
southwest flow aloft. Widespread wetting rains and unseasonably cold
temperatures will spread across the West Coast and then throughout
the Interior. Wetting rains are expected to spread into the eastern
Interior near the Canadian border by Friday, the only place we have
had any recent drying.

Highest rainfall totals for the end of the week are expected to be
upwards of 0.75-1.25 inches for the Alaska Range and portions of the
southwest and central Interior. Rain amounts of 0.25-0.75 inches
should be expected elsewhere.

$$

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ825.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802-806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805-852-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808>810-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
&&

$$