917
FXAK69 PAFG 072220
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
220 PM AKDT Thu May 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably cooler temperatures continues across the West Coast as an
upper-level low moves south along the Western Interior. With this,
scattered showers are expected to continue across the Interior over
the next couple of days. A warm front is looking to move west across
the Upper Tanana by early Saturday morning. The SE flow that will be
set up aloft will increase the chances for isolated thunderstorms
for the Upper Tanana on Saturday, spreading to the higher terrain
areas north of FNSB on Sunday. Meanwhile, another shortwave will be
moving south over the central Arctic Coast. This will allow for
gusty winds to return to the NE and NW Arctic Coasts by the mid
weekend. A few hazards for ice jams remain in effect as river
breakup continues across the state.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Through the start of the weekend, chances for precipitation
  become more widespread across the Central and Eastern Interior.
  Precipitation type should be mostly rain, apart from higher
  elevations where snow or a rain/snow mix could occur.

- Cooler temps expected through tomorrow morning, likely only
  reaching the mid/upper 40s Thursday. Similarly, low temperatures
  will cool into the low 30s, allowing for some patchy areas of
  frost to develop overnight.

- Winds through the Alaska Range and into the southeast Interior
  will be southerly today before weakening and turning easterly
  overnight. Light NE winds will continue across the Interior
  today, with gusty winds returning to the higher terrain on
  Friday.

- Gusty NE winds up to 35 mph. returns for the south slopes of
  the Brooks Range and Dalton Hwy Summits Saturday night in to
  Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A cool, dry air mass has settled over the western half of the
  state, resulting in cooler temperatures through the weekend.
  High temperatures will struggle to reach the 40s in the Western
  Interior through Thursday and will be colder along the coast.
  Lows will range from the upper teens across the Seward Pen and
  Kotzebue Sound to the low 20s in the Western Interior.

- Northerly winds slightly increase through the Bering Strait
  Thursday, dropping slightly overnight before restrengthening
  again Friday with gusts up to 30 mph through the Strait.

- Showers becomes more likely in the Western Interior Friday
  night/ Saturday morning. Precipitation type will become snow or
  a rain snow mix overnight. Amounts will be light, less than a
  tenth of an inch liquid.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Snow showers have ended north of the Brooks Range to the Coast.
  However, the Central and Eastern Brooks Range will continue to
  see chances for snow through the weekend. Daily snow
  accumulations look to be up to 3 inches in the heaviest places.

- North to northeast winds, at times gusty, will develop tonight
  across the North Slope and gradually increase through Friday
  night. There may be enhanced northerly gap winds trough Central
  Brooks Range Passes on Friday with gusts up to 30 mph.

- Northeasterly winds around Point Hope and Cape Lisburne will
  peak at over 40 mph Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low continues to dip south along the Western
Interior. Satellites imagery from this morning shows the position of
the closed, upper-level low just north of Galena. This will allow
for isolated precipitation chances across the Interior throughout
today. Precipitation type should remain mostly rain, especially for
the lower elevation. A rain/snow mix is possible at higher
elevations, which may transition to mostly snow overnight. The low
will continue to move farther south to the upper/middle Kuskokwim
Valley by late Friday night. It is getting blocked by another low
moving into the central portions of the Gulf of Alaska from the
northern Pacific Basin. An associated warm front will move across
Interior, starting in the Upper Tanana, early Saturday morning and
progress easterly across the Interior throughout the day. This will
bring a slight chance for Thunderstorms for the higher terrain in
the Upper Tanana Valley on Saturday. This will also bring a weak
Tanana Valley Jet Saturday afternoon as the surface low in the gulf
moves closer to the coast. With the progression of the front
eventually reaching across the Interior, chances for storms will
spread to the higher terrain north of FNSB Sunday afternoon. Models
have continued to show the chances for this over the last several
model runs. With the front moving easterly across the Interior, this
will push the upper-level low farther west. There is a fair bit of
agreement still in place with the positioning of the low, with the
NAM solution farthest west.

Looking over the North Slope, a shortwave will begin to move south
over the central Arctic Plains by late tonight. This will allow
chances for additional snowfall to continue for the central and
eastern portions of the Arctic Plains through the weekend. With an
upper-level ridge already built up over the Bering and Siberia, the
progression of the shortwave will tighten a N/NE gradient across the
Arctic Plains through the early weekend. Wind are expected to gust
between 30 and 40 mph with the strongest winds over the NW and NE
Arctic Coast starting Saturday afternoon. Some of these stronger
winds could stretch across the Bering Strait Friday and Saturday,
but are not expected to be as strong.

Throughout the period, majority of the West Coast will continue to
be cooler with the dry, northerly flow with the positioning of the
low. However, the abundance of moisture that has been available may
allow for some light showers across the Western Interior, spreading
to the YK-Delta by late Saturday night as the upper-level low, that
was previously mentioned, pushes farther west. The positioning of
this low in the SW portion of the state is looking to set up SE
flow, aloft, across the Interior which may also help with the
convective potential through the end of the weekend. This will also
set up the chance for another round of gap winds through the Alaska
Range as some of the energy from this low works its way across the
Alaska Range by the start of next week. More on this in the extended.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
General troughing over the state is expected to support cool and
moist conditions for most of the Interior. Chances for
thunderstorms are likely this afternoon as uneven surface heating
and instability could support convective potential. Higher
thunderstorm and lightning potential is possible Monday afternoon,
aligning with the brief drier period early next week. Chances of
scattered precipitation are likely for Northern Alaska through the
weekend and early next week, with a brief pause on Tuesday as the
Interior enters a dry patch. Temperatures are expected to remain
on the cooler side through the weekend, but an increase in high
temperatures is likely for next week. In the Interior, some
locations could see highs in the low to mid 60s.

As an upper level low moves from the northeast to the southwest, a
tight pressure gradient forms in the Gulf of Alaska and is expected
to support strong southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range
passes Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Isabel Pass is likely
to see stronger winds than Windy Pass with gusts up to 50 mph
possible. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to stay in
the upper 30s to lower 40s percent through the weekend, with a drop
to the upper 20s percent likely early next week in the Eastern
Interior. By mid-week next week, minimum relative humidities return
to the upper 30s/lower 40s percent for most of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood warning is in effect through early Friday morning for
Chalkyitsik. Public reports of an ice jam along the Draanjik has
resulted in a rapid river rise.

Breakup continues along the upper Yukon as Eagle broke up earlier
this week. As of earlier this morning, a 25 mile run of ice is
moving through Circle with the majority of it pass the jam spots.
Upstream of Eagle the river continues to breakup. Additional delayed
ice runs will happen there in the next few days.

Elsewhere rivers continued to rise with several locations remaining
in action stage as of this afternoon. As such river flood watches
have been issued for Circle.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
As an upper level trough begins to move to the southwest,
southerly gap winds are expected to pick up in the Alaska Range
passes starting Sunday night going into Monday and tapering off by
Tuesday morning. Scattered showers are still likely for most of
Northern Alaska in the form of rain, as surface conditions are
expected to warm into the low to mid 60s above for much of the
Interior. However, snow is still likely at higher elevations. Once
the low moves over the Bering Sea early next week, it will draw in
moisture from lower latitudes and bring another round of scattered
showers to start the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Twombly
Fire Wx/Extended - Srinivasan