734
FXAK69 PAFG 191153
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
353 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Showers this morning will move towards the Koyukuk Valley
  around midday with light snow and rain chances in Wiseman this
  afternoon, dissipating overnight.

- Isolated showers remain over the Interior tomorrow with an
  area of light rain in the Fortymile and around Eagle Sunday
  morning. 0.10" to 0.25" of rain expected in Eagle.

- Showers continue on Monday, especially east of Fairbanks.

- Temperatures will be near average through Sunday with a drop
  early next week. Most spots struggle to exceed the low 40s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Rain showers from Eastern Norton Sound north/east. Snow
  showers in the Bering Strait today, transitioning to rain
  showers tomorrow. The Interior is dry from Sunday onwards.

- Showers continue on Monday, mainly along the coast with most
  of the area dry on Tuesday.

- Today is warmest in the Interior with highs in the upper
  40s/low 50s. Temps along the coast will be chilly, in the
  upper 30s to low 40s. 40 to 45 degrees everywhere from Sunday
  through early next week.

- A potentially strong Bering Sea Low arrives Thursday with
  potential impacts being moderate to heavy rain, strong wind
  and coastal impacts which are dependent on the track.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Snow showers along the Chukchi Sea Coast today and tomorrow
  with accumulations around 1 inch or less.

- Light snow for the Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic Coast
  Saturday evening through Sunday. Snowfall totals remain light
  around 1 to 3 inches. Highest in the Brooks Range.

- A mix of rain and snow showers continues into early next week
  with temperatures hovering near or slightly above freezing.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
While the weather is relatively unimpactful, it is still active
with showers remaining over the Interior, snow showers over the
Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait and light snow in the Brooks
Range/Eastern Arctic Coast. The trend early next week is drier
overall, but we will continue to have isolated rain and snow
showers, especially on the North Slope and in the Eastern
Interior. It will be trending cooler, especially in the Interior
early next week with most spots outside of the Upper Tanana
Valley struggling to get out of the 40s. The temperatures across
the remainder of Northern Alaska will stay mainly stagnant.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Why is the weather so active might you ask? Well, it is all
thanks to a broad, longwave trough which is stationed from the
North Pole to the Northern Pacific. Within this trough is an
Arctic front in the Chukchi Sea, a weak, open shortwave trough
in Western Alaska and a dousing of shortwave energy moving over
the Alaska Range. On top of this, there is a strengthening low
moving into the Gulf. All of the showery activity in the
Interior is being driven by the 500mb vorticity which is being
advected north and east as it get squeezed by the Arctic front
moving southeast and the Gulf low moving northeast. As the
Arctic front continues to trek southeast, we weaken a pressure
gradient this weekend which has been bringing a consistent
breeze from the Bering Strait Region northward. All of the
energy over the Interior will gradually shift north and east,
which will keep shower chances persistent but shift them towards
the Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic Coast today and tomorrow. As
the showers run into colder air up north, they will transition
to snow, even in Wiseman, but expect mainly light
accumulations around 1 to 3 inches north of Wiseman and maybe a
slushy coating to 0.5" in Wiseman. While this may sound like the
front is clearing the Interior making Sunday dry, we will
continue to see areas of showers due to the intrusion of a front
from the northerly moving Gulf low. Not to worry though, any
rain accumulations should be measured in the hundredths of
inches, with the exception of Eagle which may be upwards of
0.25". Regardless, most of the Interior should have some dry
time and it doesn`t appear to be a washout by any means. Heading
into Monday, temperatures for most of the Interior will be
dropping as the southeasterly moving Arctic front provides cold
air advection to the region. We`ll notice 850mb temperatures
dropping from about 0C to 5C this weekend, to 0C to -7C by
Tuesday night with a warming gradient from west to east. While
this may sound intimidating, we are only expecting sub-freezing
temperatures in the Interior overnight, especially Tuesday
night. Elsehwere across Northern Alaska, the Arctic Front is
already providing relatively cool weather, so there won`t be too
much change in temperatures this weekend into next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended is a bit of a wild card. One thing we know for
certain is, there will be a low in the Bering Sea by the middle
and end of next week. There are signs that it can be moderately
strong, around 960mb and move east towards Western Alaska. But,
after those details it becomes fuzzy. Three factors that may
inhibit significant impacts from Hooper Bay northward are a
trough in the Arctic and a ridge moving into the Gulf and a
Pacific ridge. This Arctic trough will play its role as the
piece that tries to push the storm south towards the Aleutians,
while the ridge in the Gulf will try to limit quick eastern
motion and the Pacific ridge can also push a storm north or
south. From yesterday to today, guidance has had shown the
Pacific ridge weakening and the Arctic trough strengthening,
which would lead to a farther south storm. The ridge moving into
the Gulf may be strong enough to halt eastward progression, but
that could mean prolonged impacts from wind and rain. The ridge
will be pushing east gradually late next week, and opens the
door for the low to move into the Gulf. All of this to say,
there will be a strong storm in the Bering late next week, the
devil is in the details, but we are leaning towards a farther
south track, north of the aleutians but south of St. Lawrence
Island which can result in heavy rain and very strong winds
being the main concern. There is a potential for some coastal
impacts from Hooper Bay northward but that doesn`t appear to be
the main concern for most spots outside of the Yukon Delta
right now.

Otherwise, the remainder of Northern Alaska looks like there
will be a clearing trend with mixed clouds and sun. There may be
some snow showers for the North Slope, but it does not look like
much. Again, this is subject to change, especially if the Bering
Sea low pivots a bit farther north which would bring more
clouds and chances for precipitation. So, stay tuned to the
forecast. We will continue to monitor the progression of the
pattern very closely.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
As mentioned in the long term discussion, the strong low in the
Bering is trending south which would lead to a lesser extent of
coastal impacts. Currently, the favored wind direction is
south/southeast which for most areas, would lean towards some
higher water than normal, but nothing too concerning. The Yukon
Delta is the exception where water levels may be a bit higher in
this scenario. As far as exact impacts, once we have a better
grasp on the track and position of the low, there will be more
details. We will continue to monitor this as it evolves.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Not much concern for fire weather as showers persist in the
Fortymile Country this weekend and into early next week. The
Upper Tanana will remain mostly dry. Temperatures are expected
to be in the low 50s in the Upper Tanana through Monday with
upper 40s to low 50s in Fortymile Country. Min RHs will bottom
out around 40% to 45% today then increase Sunday and Monday into
the 55% to 65% range. Winds get a little breezy in Fortymile
Country, around 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph today, then
weaken while the Upper Tanana will be light.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Chena River upstream
of Moose Creek Dam. While we aren`t expecting widespread
flooding, minor pooling and ponding of water is expected in
low-lying, flood prone areas this weekend. Water levels will
crest in Fairbanks this afternoon then gradually drop
thereafter.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801-802-806-
     850-854.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ803-
     805-851-852.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ804-853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for
     PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ807-
     808-817.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this
     evening for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for
     PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ855.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ856.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Bianco
SYNOPSIS.......Bianco
SHORT TERM.....Bianco
LONG TERM......Bianco
COASTAL........Bianco
FIRE WEATHER...Bianco
HYDROLOGY......Bianco