205
FXAK69 PAFG 152225
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
225 PM AKDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range will continue to
  strengthen through Tuesday afternoon with gusts up to 65 mph
  possible. Winds will begin to lighten late Tuesday night into
  Wednesday. A wind advisory remains in effect through late
  Tuesday night.

- Widespread showers will gradually increase across the Interior
  as a series of fronts begin to move in from the west-
  southwest. Rainfall Totals through Thursday afternoon:
  (Below 1000ft) 0.5" to 1.5", (Above 1000ft) 1.5" to 2.5".

- Southwest winds increase across the Interior Tuesday night
  into Wednesday. Wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph possible
  through the valleys with higher elevations expected to see
  gusts between 40 and 45 mph. A wind advisory remains in effect
  from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Chena River basin
  through the start of the weekend for potential minor
  flooding.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through late Tuesday
  night for the southern portions of the YK Delta coast for
  water levels of 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line.

- Gusty winds along the Bering Strait, Yukon Delta, and southern
  Western Interior will gradually decrease starting early
  Wednesday morning.

- Moderate to heavy rainfall expected to continue through
  Wednesday morning. Showers are expected to persist thereafter,
  but the bulk of the rainfall will have already fallen.

- Additional rainfall expected through Thursday night: 0.25" and
  0.75" expected along the West Coast. Heavier amounts expected
  further inland with localized amounts up to 1.5" possible at
  higher elevations. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the
  Upper Kuskokwim.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Gusty northeast winds across the NW Arctic Coast gradually
  weaken and shift out of the north through Wednesday morning.

- The warm front reaches the Central Brooks Range Tuesday
  afternoon, bringing another round of rain/snow showers. Most
  of the snow will be confined to the Brooks Range with expected
  totals between 1" and 3".

- A slight chance for a brief period of freezing drizzle is
  possible across the Arctic Plains and central Arctic Coast
  Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Isolated to scattered snow showers are expected to continue
  across the North Slope through the end of the week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
An active pattern continues as a Bering low continues to move
north toward the Seward Peninsula. With this, a series of fronts
are expected to move across Northern Alaska over the next couple
of days, providing moderate rainfall and gusty winds through the
latter half of the week. A series of wind advisories are in
effect for the Central Interior and southern portions of the
Western Interior. Given how saturated the ground is, this
additional rainfall may result in minor flooding concerns across
the Chena River Basin and Upper Kuskokwim. An additional low is
expected to eastward across the Bering toward Bristol Bay. This
will allow the general troughing pattern to continue across
much of Northern Alaska into the start of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Not much change has been made to the overall forecast. Satellite
imagery from this morning continues to show the northerly
progression of the 978mb low, now situated to the SE of St.
lawrence Island. Extending to its east is the associated warm
front that has moved across much of the Central Interior,
providing a steady stream of moderate to heavy rainfall. A quick
glance at 12hr accumulation from METAR observations shows that
many locations across the southern portion of the West Coast and
Western Interior have received at least 0.25" of rain. Heavier
amounts between 0.75" and 1.0" have been observed along NE
Norton Sound coast, the Middle Yukon, and the Upper Kuskokwim.

The track of this low is still expected to make an eastward turn
once entering the Norton Sound. This deviation is cause by a
weak cold front pushing south toward the Arctic Coast, which has
provided some areas with isolated snow showers Tuesday
afternoon, and the weakening of the 300mb jet streak. The
weakening of the jet will allow the low to rapidly weaken as
the upper-level dynamics will no longer become favorable. The
warm front will continue to push north across the Central Brooks
Range. This will provide the Brooks Range with another round of
snow showers. The front will eventually work its way over the
Arctic Coast early Wednesday. With cooler air already in place,
this warmer air brought in at the mid-levels may provide a
slight chance for freezing rain across the Central Arctic Coast.
Confidence in this remains low as the southerly flow from the
Brooks Range may result in downsloping which could dry out some
of the low levels. Soundings from models that are showing the
potential for the freezing precipitation are showing a
completely saturated column up to the mid-levels, leading to the
higher uncertainty.

The remnants of this system will push E-NE on Wednesday,
swinging a vast amount of vorticity across the Interior. At
925mb, a 40 to 50kt low-level jet is expected to form while the
associated cold front, extending south from the low, progresses
east from the YK Delta. All of these components will work in
unison to provide a brief period of gusty winds across the Upper
Kuskokwim and Central Interior. With the cold front pushing
east and southwesterly flow continuing across much of the
Interior, this will bring the bulk of expected precipitation
across the area. The larger amounts are expected at higher
elevations and areas on the SW facing side of higher terrain.
The Chena River Basin and Upper Kuskokwim are amongst the group
of areas expected to see the most rainfall. Given the ground is
already saturated, the additional rainfall won`t have anywhere
to go. As a result, a series of flood watches remain in effect.
More info on this in the Hydro section.

Meanwhile, a much weaker low will be working its way east
across the Central Bering as the remnants of the first low
continues to push NE. The track of this low continues to be
projected toward Bristol Bay. However, the central pressure is
expected to be around 1005mb when it arrives early Thursday. A
Another disturbance will begin to take shape over the western
Aleutians as colder air continues to be advected into the broad
trough that continues to engulf Western Alaska. This new low is
expected to move SE across the Aleutians, strengthening into a
more organized system by the time it reaches the Central Gulf by
the end of the week. This broad troughing that will result from
the movement of these lows will allow southwesterly flow to
continue across Northern Alaska, which would allow the wet and
showery pattern to continue into the start of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models confidence is high that an Arctic trough will dips further
south into the Interior over the course of the weekend. Conditions
remain unsettled in the region, especially on the West Coast and in
the Western Interior, with light and showery precipitation possible
every day. Two lows in the Gulf of Alaska move northeast into the
Yukon Territory over the course of the weekend, one on Saturday
morning and one on Sunday afternoon/evening. Both lows could set up
southeasterly flow in the Central and Eastern Interior, but model
confidence in surface low location is low, making the strength and
extent of rain in the region uncertain at this time.

As the trough digs into the Western/Central Interior and West Coast
over the course of the weekend, temperatures and snow levels start
to drop, though accumulating snow looks unlikely at low elevations.
Low temperatures at/below freezing are possible for the entire area
north of the Alaska Range by Tuesday morning. Rain showers could
switch to mixed precipitation and/or snow as early as Friday night
on the Seward Peninsula, Sunday morning in the Northwest Interior,
and Monday morning in the valleys west of Fairbanks and in the
higher hills around Fairbanks. Since there are no large storm
systems to bring a large swath of instability or moisture to the
Interior, the limiting factor for wintry precipitation will be where
and how much moisture and instability weaker shortwaves that move
over the region are able to provide.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
Little to no change is expected with the coastal hazard
potential. The Bering low is still expected to bring elevated
water, 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line. Water levels
are expected to drop Tuesday night into Wednesday. A high surf
advisory will remain in effect until 1 AM Wednesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...For the Upper Tanana Valley / Mukluk Fire area:
Cool and moist conditions are expected to persist for the next few
days, thus eliminating any major fire weather concerns. With mainly
light showers traversing the area through tonight and early
Wednesday, RH values will remain elevated. Some downsloping from the
Alaska Range will take shape during the day Wednesday, reducing rain
chances and allowing for min rh values to drop back into the upper
40 to around 50 percent range through the end of the week, which is
still well above critical threshold levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A storm tracking into the Norton Sound from the Bering is continuing
to bring a wide swath of persistent rain showers to portions of
Western and Interior Alaska. This will likely continue into Late
Wednesday and potentially Thursday for parts of the Interior and the
southern slopes of the Brooks Range. Excessive amounts of rainfall
on already saturated soils will continue to be a reason for concern
for at least the next 48 hours as local rivers and streams will
continue to respond to the runoff, even after the bulk of the
rainfall has come to an end.

Across western Alaska, widespread 24 hour rainfall totals of between
0.75 1.00 inches were reported through Noon Tuesday. Additional
totals of 0.25 to 0.75" are possible with some locations potentially
seeing an additional 1.25 inches of additional rainfall through
Wednesday. While the Yukon and Kuskokwim rivers should be able to
manage much of the additional water, smaller streams and rivers that
feed these systems could experience some minor flooding over the
next few days.

Across the Interior, most rainfall through midday Tuesday has been
on the lighter side, but heavier rainfall is expected this evening
and into Wednesday as well as Thursday. Below 1000ft, additional
rainfall of between 0.50 and 1.50 inches is possible with higher
elevations potentially seeing as much as 2.50 inches of additional
rainfall through Thursday. Current concerns are for the Chena river
basin as excessive runoff from projected rainfall could lead to
minor flooding of the Chena, especially east of Fairbanks.

Elsewhere, pooling and ponding of water remains a concern,
especially during times of ongoing heavier rainfall. This could pose
an additional hazard for motorists throughout the Interior.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ825.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ830-851-852.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM AKDT Thursday for
     AKZ834-838>845.
     Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for AKZ843-844.
     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM AKDT Wednesday
     for AKZ846.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ847.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ849.
     Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for AKZ852.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT
     Wednesday for PKZ801.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ802-853-
     854-857.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ804-852.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ805-
     808>810-855.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 AM AKDT Wednesday for
     PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ806-807-
     811-856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT
     Wednesday for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ812-817-
     858.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ814.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ816-851.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Twombly
SYNOPSIS.......Twombly
SHORT TERM.....Twombly
LONG TERM......Schlezinger
COASTAL........Twombly
FIRE WEATHER...Laney
HYDROLOGY......Laney