852
FXAK69 PAFG 172209 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...Correction
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
205 PM AKDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Norton Sound low pressure system will move away from
the west coast ending light rainfall on Friday. More light rainfall
develops in onshore flow over the west coast Saturday and Sunday.
A ridge of high pressure has built across the rest of the
Interior for quiet and seasonable weather conditions. The nice
weather will continue into the weekend with highs in the 70s
across the Interior. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will develop over the higher terrain Friday and Saturday. The
Arctic Coast will get windy and colder this weekend as the east
winds return.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- High temperatures mainly in the 70s with light winds through
  the weekend. Skies will be partly cloudy.

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the
  higher terrain Friday and Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Light rain returns along the west coast Friday night into
  Saturday.

- Winds mainly offshore and 15 mph or less along the coast
  through the weekend.

- Temperatures remain steady...mostly in the 60s near the west
  coast...warmer with 70s in the Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- East winds 20 to 35 mph along the Arctic coast Friday and
  Saturday.

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the
  Brooks Range Friday and Saturday.

- Cooler temperatures...30s and 40s...through Saturday along the
  Arctic coast. Gradual warming Sunday into Tuesday. Highs in the
  50s along the coast...with 70s possible in the Arctic Plain.

&&

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...An upper low over the Yukon
Delta will move northwest over Norton Sound. That low will head
west toward Russia for a temporary break in the west coast rain
early Friday. More onshore flow and light rain develops over the
west coast north to Kotzebue Sound by Saturday. Meanwhile a weak
high pressure ridge is over the North Slope Borough and the rest
of the Interior. This airmass will gradually destabilize at low
levels as it warms and dries the next several days. Wind flow will
remain light over the central and eastern Interior so isolated
convection will show little movement off the higher terrain.
Storms will occur over the Brooks Range as well. PWs are near an
inch so storms will be wet. The Arctic Coast turns colder with
gusty east winds this weekend.


&&

FIRE WEATHER...
A ridge of high pressure lies over the central and eastern Interior
as a low moves northwest through Norton Sound. Satellite imagery
shows partly cloudy skies over Northern Alaska as of 2pm Thursday.
Temperatures this weekend will remain near to slightly above normal,
though southeast flow on Friday will bring showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The transition to southwest flow on Saturday will
bring stratiform rain over the West Coast and Western Interior while
chances for thunderstorms hang on across parts of the Interior and
even the North Slope. Southwest flow looks to continue into next
week, bringing more rainfall and cooler temperatures into the
Interior. RHs look to remain plenty wet in these patterns, mainly
above 40% with a few readings in the 30-40% range possible across
the Upper Tanana Valley each day through Sunday. Northeast winds
will gust to 15 mph across the Yukon Flats Friday afternoon through
Sunday. Southerly gap winds will gust to 30 mph through Alaska Range
passes on Sunday.

&&

HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time.

&&

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...There is good model agreement that a
low will move over the Bering Sea by Sunday...and then up near
the Bering Strait by next Tuesday. The high pressure ridge is
pushed east over the Canadian Yukon and breaks down. A series of
shortwaves will rotate around this low and move up over the
Interior in a moist west-southwest flow. Hazardous rainfall
remains possible on Tuesday along the Denali Park Road and north
side of the Alaska Range west of the Parks Highway. Ensemble
solutions want to move the Bering low energy down over the
Interior the middle of next week. The cold frontal boundary
forcing will result in widespread rainfall as it tracks east.
This is a wet pattern that will likely settle down our wildfire
activity even more. Even the Yukon Flats could potentially see
some widespread rain by next Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.

&&

$$

Maier/Chriest (Fire)