332
FXAK69 PAFG 162100
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
100 PM AKDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Rain tapers off temporarily across the Interior today,
with mainly dry and pleasant conditions expected Sunday and
Monday. Showers continue across the West Coast, while the North
Slope warms and sees showery conditions through early next week.
Beginning Wednesday, the forecast looks quite wet for all areas of
Northern Alaska, with multiple systems bringing abundant rainfall
through next weekend.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Rain continues to taper off across the area, with some clearing
  expected late Saturday and for Sunday and Monday.

- A period of strong gusty winds up to 35 mph from the northwest
  in the Upper Tanana Valley and through Isabel Pass will continue
  through Saturday night, with winds diminishing slightly on
  Sunday but staying breezy.

- Highs will be mainly in the 50s through Saturday, with slight
  warming on Sunday. Next week will be in the mid 60s.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Seasonally cool temperatures and mild weather are expected,
  with highs in the 50s and lower 60s.

- The next chance for precipitation will be Saturday afternoon and
  evening across the whole coast as another cold front moves
  onshore. Rainfall amounts will be much lighter than this recent
  system with amounts generally less than 0.1". Models have
  continued to weakened this feature in the last 24 hours and we
  have further lowered rainfall amounts in the forecast.

- There will be more showers along the coast on Sunday before a
  more robust system arrives Monday, bringing rainfall to the NW
  Coast and Interior.

- Winds remain mostly from the west at 15 mph or less through
  Sunday, then become northerly on Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A frontal system brings rain to the area from west to east
  Sunday through Tuesday, then another front arrives Tuesday along
  the northwest coast. Wet conditions continue through the
  weekend. Light snow is possible across the eastern Brooks Range
  Tuesday and Tuesday night, but mostly rain is expected.

- Temperatures will warm with highs mainly in the 50s.

- Southerly winds will become northwesterly again with the next
  frontal system early Sunday. West winds to 25 mph arrive to the
  Western Arctic Coast on Tuesday with the second frontal passage.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...A cold front has moved east
into the Yukon Territory, with strong northwest winds continuing
through Sunday across the Upper Tanana Valley. A shortwave that
brought rainfall to the eastern Interior overnight and this
morning is decaying over the central interior as ridging builds
from the southwest. This will bring drier and warmer weather to
the Interior for Sunday and Monday. A deep upper level low in the
arctic will spin a cold front along the north edge of the ridge,
bringing light rain to the west coast Saturday night, then a
stronger shortwave on Sunday. This second shortwave will bring
heavier precipitation to the western North Slope and North of the
Seward Peninsula Sunday and Sunday night, then to the Brooks Range
on Monday. Models show differences on the strength of this front
by Tuesday, but agree on bringing it southeast through the
Interior, which will bring rain. Models are speeding this feature
up with each run, so we have gone with a faster SREF solution for
precipitation in the forecast today. Ridging builds behind this
feature, bringing drier and clearer conditions to the West Coast
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...No major concerns as all areas have seen a recent
wetting rain and the pattern looks to continue to bring more
precipitation to all parts of the state. There will be some modest
drying on Sunday from McGrath to Tanana to the Yukon Flats and on
Monday across the Upper Tanana Valley, but RHs look to remain
above 35%. No thunderstorms are expected and winds will be mostly
10 mph or less once Upper Tanana Valley NW winds calm down Sunday
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Expect slight rises on the Fortymile, Goodpaster, Chena,
and Salcha Rivers through the weekend, but water levels there
remain quite low. No concerns at this time.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...As the ridge over the West Coast on
Tuesday flattens, this will open the door for southwest flow and
abundant precipitation moving into the area. Wednesday through
Friday of next week looks wet for all areas of Northern Alaska,
though the weakened ridge of high pressure will keep temperatures
near normal, if not slightly above. Another system looks to arrive
at the West Coast late Friday or early Saturday, bringing more
rainfall there and into the Interior next weekend. The biggest
forecast hazard through the extended period looks to be rainfall
amounts and rising rivers.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

Chriest