621
FXAK69 PAFG 092313
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
213 PM AKST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure near/north of 80N latitude to remain stationary
today and into Sunday and Monday, producing east/northeast flow
along the Arctic coast and North Slope area. Increasing arctic ice
is reducing the amount and intensity of sea effect snow showers,
but they are still visible on satellite imagery today extending
inland onto the North Slope. A 974 mb low approximately 200 miles
south of Kodiak Island will move east through early next week,
which has allowed ridging to build over the western Bering Sea.
This is producing generally quiet weather with near normal
temperatures for the Interior and West Coast, with some light snow
showers along the North Slope.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Central and Eastern Interior Key Messages...
- Cooling trend to continue into early next week, with the
  coldest days Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the single
  digits both days and overnight lows below zero. Today is the
  last day of near normal temperatures, then dropping below normal
  for the work week.
- Generally quiet weather is expected through the first half of
  the work week. Some light snow chances sneak into the eastern
  Alaska Range Sunday night through Tuesday, but significant
  accumulations are not expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Persistent wind gusts to 20-30 mph from the east/northeast
  along the Arctic Coast.
- Strongest winds to be found along the NW Arctic Coast, with
  sustained Gale Force winds along the coast and over the water
  likely to continue through Monday.
- Near to below normal temperatures expected through next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Generally quiet weather through the weekend, with northeast
  winds expected.
- Cooling trend to continue into early next week, with the
  coldest days mid week. Inland highs to only be in the single
  digits, but more moderate highs in the teens for coastal areas.
- Light snow chances along the coast begin Monday night and
  continue into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Our general synopsis with the high pressure near 80N latitude and
the low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska with ridging building over
the Bearing Sea to continue tonight through Sunday. East to
northeast winds to continue along the Arctic Coast, maintaining
the sea effect clouds and showers going for the Arctic Coast and
North Slope. These will continue as long as there is open water
along the Arctic coastline, which is slowly shrinking according to
the visible satellite imagery. Strong east to northeast winds
will be found along the NW Arctic Coast with a subtle shortwave
trough tightening the pressure gradient which will remain there
today and tonight, before gradually diminishing into next week.
Sustained gale force winds will be found just offshore while gusts
to 40 mph remain possible for Point Lay.

Temperatures have started a downward slide that will continue
through early next week, mainly driven by clearing overnight skies
with this generally quiet pattern, fresh snow cover, and colder
air that is being advected into the area by that arctic high and
the northeast winds bringing it into Alaska. The North Slope is
likely to stay milder just due to the cloud cover induced by the
sea effects, but all of the Interior is going to have below zero
overnight lows tonight through Tuesday, with that trend continuing
through at least the middle part of the week. In fact, the change
from lows this morning to tomorrow morning are going to be 5 to
10 degrees colder.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
We are expecting generally quiet weather and near to below normal
temperatures through at least the first half of next week. An
initial front pushes onto the west coast Tuesday into Wednesday,
bringing some small chances for precipitation to the west coast.
We are monitoring the potential for a strong low to develop over
the northwest Pacific or western Bering and track into the Bering
and affect the Alaska Peninsula Thursday into Friday, with broader
upper level troughing continuing into next weekend. This system
has the potential to bring strong winds and the potential for
coastal flooding to the West Coast in the Thursday-Friday time
range, and should bring precipitation chances into the state
Thursday night into Friday and continue into Saturday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-811>815-857>861.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-851-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-860.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$