171
FXAK69 PAFG 092247
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
247 PM AKDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent ridging is the primary weather maker for the upcoming
workweek. For most parts of northern Alaska, this means above normal
temperatures mainly in the 70s and dry weather. A series of weak
upper level low pressure systems spin around the Bering Sea, but
impacts to Alaska will be limited. However, subtle disturbances
embedded within the southerly flow to the east of these lows bring
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances as early as Tuesday, but
more likely by Wednesday. Another weak low pressure shifts west
toward the eastern Arctic coastline early this week before lifting
northeast across the Beaufort Sea on Wednesday/Thursday. This system
brings rain shower chances, mainly to the Eastern Brooks Range on
Monday/Tuesday in addition to periods of low stratus and fog during
onshore flow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- A few rain showers are possible Monday & Tuesday as a quick moving
disturbance drops south across the area. Any rainfall will be light
and most places will be dry most of the time.

- Temperatures warm steadily through the week with highs climbing
through the 70s to the low 80s by Thursday through the weekend.
Mostly clear skies allow low temps falling into the 50s each night.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Rain showers diminish along the West Coast this afternoon and
evening with skies clearing tonight into Monday for most places.

- High pressure results in mostly sunny skies and drier weather with
high temperatures approaching 70 along the coast and mid 70s to
around 80 across the Western Interior.

- After a mostly dry Monday, diurnal shower chances return on
Tuesday and become scattered on Wednesday before diminishing on
Thursday. Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms chances
generally shift from south to north Tue-Thu too.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Low stratus and areas of fog continue along the eastern Arctic
Coast through the weekend with temperatures mainly in the upper 30s
to lower 40s where onshore winds prevail.

- Elsewhere across the North Slope, highs stay mainly in the 60s
with 70s likely near Umiat by Wednesday when southerly downslope
flow develops north of the Brooks Range returns. This includes the
western Arctic Coast where east-southerly offshore flow prevails.

- Rain chances increase across the eastern Brooks Range and Arctic
Coast on Monday then diminish on Tuesday. Farther west, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday evening through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Sunday night through Wednesday/...
The most persistent feature for this forecast period is a 576 dm
ridge centered near Denali this afternoon. This ridge gradually
weakens without moving much through Tuesday before building and
lifting north across the interior on Wednesday. Farther west, an
energetic but weakening closed low (558 dm) tracks south across the
Aleutians tonight. This system phases with a trough further south
into a seasonably strong low over the North Pacific Ocean on Monday
and Tuesday before lifting north toward Alaska during the extended
forecast period. The final synoptic scale feature of note is a
closed low over the eastern Beaufort Sea that retrogrades westward
toward the eastern Arctic Coast by Tuesday before lifting north
across the Beaufort (again) on Wednesday.

The Beaufort low is the same system that sent a cold front across
the interior Thursday night into Friday that shifted most of the
moisture eastward into Canada. As a result, there`s not much
moisture left for this system to work with. However, a shortwave
tracking southeast across the interior on Monday may have enough
lift to squeeze out a few showers near the Canadian border Monday
afternoon and evening. Rain showers are more likely closer to the
main low pressure Monday night into Tuesday across the eastern
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range, but amounts stay light.

An arguably more important pair of disturbances track north along
the West Coast Tuesday through Thursday. These disturbances are
embedded within moist southerly flow near the apex of the persistent
ridge feature. Precipitable water values around 1 inch and 850 mb
temps around +10C support embedded thunderstorm chances that shift
from near the YK Delta to the western North Slope between Tuesday
and Thursday. Model guidance has consistently identified Wednesday
as having the most thunderstorm activity, which appears to be
focused across the Western Interior.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally warm weather with little in the way of strong winds is
expected across the area to start the week, with a ridge aloft over
southern Alaska extending northward across the southern Interior.
This will yield widespread highs in the 60s and low 70s this
afternoon, with a few areas potentially reaching into the low 80s by
Monday and Tuesday. In spite of these warm temperatures, minimum RH
values are likely to remain in the 30s or higher in most areas. By
Wednesday, much of the Eastern Interior could see highs rise into
the low to mid 80s, with min RHs in the 20s possible. The driest
areas are likely to be in the Upper Tanana Valley, especially by
Friday when the warmest temperatures will also be possible. On the
western end of the ridge, thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
afternoon with sufficient instability in place, with thunderstorm
chances moving into the Northern Interior by Thursday, then the
Eastern Interior Friday.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
To start the extended time frame, troughing will occupy the Western
Bering Sea with some associated offshore showers occurring. On the
opposite of the state, a ridge aloft with very warm air will extend
across much of mainland Alaska from the southeast. This latter
feature will support surface temperatures late this week broadly
rising into the 70s and 80s in the Interior from Wednesday onward
and especially moving into the weekend, with the southern North
Slope potentially seeing highs rise into the low to mid 70s. There
will be chances for thunderstorms each day rotating around the
periphery of the ridge; these thunderstorm chances will align with a
combination of surface instability and dynamic support aloft, with
chances in the Western Interior on Wednesday, the Northern Interior
and Brooks Range Thursday, and the Eastern Interior Friday. By
Saturday, with a southeastern Bering Sea low driving flow across the
Alaska Range, thunderstorms will be possible across much of the
Interior and West Coast. The magnitude of this thunderstorm activity
remains uncertain due to placement of the low and the ridge. Moving
into next week, while warm temperatures remain a possibility, there
is substantial uncertainty on any finer forecast details, with
little agreement of the position of the ridge and the low.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kutta
KEY MESSAGES...Kutta
SHORT TERM...Kutta
LONG RANGE...Saltzman
FIRE WEATHER...Saltzman