625
FXAK69 PAFG 062153
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
153 PM AKDT Tue May 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Some blowing snow with limited visibility restrictions will
continue on the North Slope through this evening before winding
down as east winds decrease. A cold low-pressure area will bring
a broad area of light rain showers to the southern Interior
later today into tonight, with snow likely in the Alaska Range.
Some additional light showers are likely today over the Western
Interior, Norton Sound, and Seward Peninsula. Breakup continues
in the Interior, and as of 1 PM Tuesday, the Yukon River
breakup front has jammed at Six Mile Island, which has caused
water rises at Fort Yukon.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
A cold low-pressure area will shift west today, bringing a broad
area of showers to the southern Interior, with colder air
shifting into the area from the north.

- Increasing chances for precipitation later today through
  Wednesday for the S Interior to the AK Range.

- Accumulating snowfall expected for the AK Range, with the
  potential for 3 to 5 inches for the Parks Hwy side, and 1 to
  3 for the Richardson side.

- Isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Interior during the
  daytime Tuesday and Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Rain will wrap around a low over the eastern Bering Sea,
bringing light showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm to
the area.

- Light rain showers spreads west from the Yukon Valley to the
  Seward Peninsula and E Norton Sound through Wednesday.

- Isolated thunderstorm threats today and Thu over the Kuskokwim
  and S Yukon Valleys.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
East winds will continue on the eastern Arctic Coast today, with
some limited blowing snow possible before winds decrease
tonight.

- Most blowing snow has ended on the North Slope, and what
  remains should diminish by tonight as east winds decrease.

- Quieter and more benign weather develops Wed and Thu as high
  pressure builds in.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 537 dm upper-level low is focused near St. Lawrence Island,
and a vertically-stacked 528 dm upper-level low over the Gulf
of Alaska is colocated with a 998 mb surface low. A 533 dm upper
low near Eagle is bringing some showers and a slight chance for
thunderstorms to the eastern Interior and will shift west
through the late week period, bringing light showers to the
southern Interior and snow to the Alaska Range. A 548 dm upper-
level high and associated 1024 mb surface high are bringing
gusty easterly winds to the Arctic coast, which will continue
through tonight before weakening.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
Below-normal temperatures will continue for the next few days
in the Interior, with showers likely in the southern Interior
and snow in the Alaska Range ahead of more substantive warming
from Friday into next week, with widespread 50s and 60s likely.
Minimum relative humidity values will mostly be in the 30s and
40s Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with some drying into the
upper 20s and 30s possible on Thursday and Friday. There is a
slight chance for wet thunderstorms this afternoon over the
eastern Interior as well as over the upper Kuskokwim River
Valley. There will be additional slight chances of wet
thunderstorms over the southeastern Interior on Wednesday and
again near Northway and over the lower Yukon River Valley on
Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1 PM Tuesday, the Yukon River breakup front has jammed on
the downstream side of Six Mile Island, which is causing water
to rise in Fort Yukon. A Flood Watch is currently in effect for
the area through Wednesday morning. Low-lying areas, including
some roads and the boat launch, are covered by water. Upstream
gages and reports do not indicate a significant surge of water
coming from upstream, so while water levels may rise slightly
higher, significant flooding is not expected at this time.

Visit http://www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest river updates.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
General troughing is likely to continue over Western Alaska and
the Bering Sea through the extended time frame, with ridging
extending north from over the Gulf of Alaska over the Mainland
shifting east across the state on Monday and Tuesday. There are
some model disagreements on a late-period trough/front moving
inland on Monday into Tuesday, with the GFS having a more robust
shield of precipitation in the Central and Eastern Interior,
while the GFS keeps more of the heavier precipitation further
south with a more southerly upper-level low, and the GEM yielding
a more middling solution.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-858-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
&&

$$

DS