055
FZAK80 PAFC 162320
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
320 PM AKDT Wednesday 16 October 2024

FORECAST VALID...Monday 21 October 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High

SYNOPSIS...A weak low will move east across the Beaufort Sea and
dissipate by Friday. High pressure will temporarily build over the
Chukchi and Beaufort Seas before another low strengthens as it moves
northeast from eastern Russia and into the Chukchi Sea Saturday
through Monday.

The main ice edge extends from Russian waters to 75 2N 164 48W to
76 1N 156 56W to 75 21N 154 42W to 75 45N 140 45W to 74 16N
137 59W and continues east in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open
water. There is also new sea ice within protected bays and behind
barrier islands along the north and west coast of Alaska as far
south as the Yukon River Delta.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from
Russian waters to 250 nm northwest of Point Barrow to 265 nm north
of Point Barrow to 230 nm north of Point Barrow to 350 nm north of
Demarcation Point to 170 nm north of Demarcation Point and continues
east into Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also
new sea ice within protected bays and behind barrier islands along
the north and west coast of Alaska as far south as the Yukon River
Delta.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Winds will generally be northwesterly over the
ice pack through Saturday, then becoming southeasterly and
increasing Sunday into Monday. Expect the ice pack to move south 20
to 40 nm through Saturday with additional ice growth along the
southern edge of the ice pack, then retreat to the northwest up to
20 nm Sunday and Monday. Some of the newest sea ice will melt during
the period of southeasterly winds. Additional new ice formation
behind the barrier islands and within protected bays along the north
coast will continue through Saturday, and some of the newest and
thinnest sea ice will melt as the southeasterly winds increase
Sunday and Monday.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Southerly to southeasterly winds will persist
through Monday, and will increase in strength late Sunday through
Monday. Sea ice will retreat to the north and west 40 to 60 nm
through the forecast period, and some of the newest sea ice within
the main ice pack as well as along the west coast of Alaska will
melt as air temperatures warm through the weekend and wave action
increases.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is high. New sea ice within protected bays will likely completely
melt as warmer air and stronger southerly winds move in through the
weekend.

&&
Schreck