864
FZAK80 PAFC 212304
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
304 PM AKDT Wednesday 21 May 2025

FORECAST VALID...Monday 26 May 2025.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High.

SYNOPSIS...High pressure persists over the Chukchi and Beaufort
Seas. On Friday, a weak low pressure system moves from the Chukchi
Sea into the Beaufort Sea on Sunday. A low in the southwestern
Bering Sea crosses the Chain on Thursday and strengthens in the Gulf
of Alaska. A strong Kamchatka low pressure sends a front northward
into the Bering Sea Friday and Saturday. That system weakens and
moves toward the Gulf of Alaska early next week. A stronger low
pressure system enters the western Chukchi Sea.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is moderate. Light and variable winds will transition to
light southerly through Friday. Ice will generally move with local
currents through Thursday. Then, shorefast ice will be at risk of
break-off, mainly along the outer edges of the shorefast ice through
Saturday. Variable winds return Sunday and Monday. Overall, the main
ice pack will move to the west around 5-10 nm day through Saturday,
then move northward 10-15/day through Monday.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Easterly winds will continue to keep the polynya
along northwest Alaska open and expanding through Saturday.
Developing southerly winds over the main ice pack will move ice
northward around 10-15 nm/day through Saturday.  Saturday through
Monday, periods of northwesterly winds will bring the pack back
southward and begin to close the polynya.

Over the southern Chukchi Sea, generally northerly winds will
persist through Monday keeping the ice pack moving southward through
the Bering Strait. However, there will still likely be an area of
open water from the warmer current through eastern Bering Strait
near Wales.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

Ice covered.

PKZ414-Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-
PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-
PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-
PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters-
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-
PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

The main ice edge extends from near Kipnuk to 59 37N 172 51W to 60
32N 179 53W to 63 9N 169 58W. The ice edge is open water. There
is also ice flowing southward around Gambell and the west side of
Saint Lawrence Island.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from
near Kipnuk to 45 nm south of Saint Matthew Island to 300 nm
southwest of Gambell to the southeast side of Saint Lawrence Island.
There is also ice flowing southward around Gambell and the west side
of Saint Lawrence Island.

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is high. Generally northerly winds will persist through the forecast
period. Overall, expect sea ice to drift southward as it continues
to melt and for areas of ice free waters to expand. The remaining
pack ice is expected to decay to marginal ice through Monday.


&&
Lawson