913
FZAK80 PAFC 182237
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
237 PM AKDT Friday 18 October 2024

FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 23 October 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high

SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the Beaufort Sea will move east as a
strong low moves northeast from eastern Russia into the Chukchi Sea
Saturday through Monday. A second low develops over the Beaufort Sea
on Monday and moves off to the east through Wednesday as the first
low dissipates over the Chukchi Sea.

The main ice edge extends from Russian waters to 73N 164 40W to 74
7N 169 19W to 75 41N 161 43W to 74 47N 141 23W and continues
east in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also
new sea ice within protected bays, in very shallow waters along the
coast, and behind barrier islands along the north and west coast of
Alaska as far south as the Yukon River Delta.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from
Russian waters to 170 nm northwest of Point Barrow to 270 nm
northwest of Point Barrow to 260 nm north-northwest of Point Barrow
to 290 nm north of Demarcation Point and continues east into
Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also new sea
ice within protected bays, in very shallow waters along the coast,
and behind barrier islands along the north and west coast of Alaska
as far south as the Yukon River Delta.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Winds will generally be northwesterly over the
ice pack through Saturday, then becoming southeasterly and
increasing Sunday into Monday. Easterly to northeasterly winds will
persist over the main ice pack Tuesday and Wednesday, while winds
over the southern Beaufort Sea will be westerly.

Expect the ice pack to move south up to 10 nm through Saturday with
additional ice growth along the southern edge of the ice pack. As
southeasterly winds increase late Sunday through Monday the ice pack
will retreat 20 to 30 nm to the northwest and some of the newest sea
ice will melt. Along the coast of Alaska, sea ice will continue to
grow and thicken through Saturday, then much of it will likely melt
during the period of southeasterly winds. New sea ice will likely
form once again Tuesday and Wednesday.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Southerly to southeasterly winds will persist
through Monday, and will increase in strength late Sunday through
Monday. Northerly winds will return on Tuesday as the low weakens
and moves off to the east. Sea ice will retreat to the north and
west 40 to 60 nm through Monday, and some of the newest sea ice will
melt as air temperatures warm through the weekend and wave action
increases. Sea ice will quickly form and thicken again as the
northerly winds and colder air return Tuesday and Wednesday, and the
ice edge will advance south-southeast again 25 to 35 nm.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is high. New sea ice within protected bays will likely completely
melt as warmer air and stronger southerly winds move in through the
weekend. New sea ice may begin to form again Tuesday and Wednesday
as colder air returns to the northern Bering Sea.

&&
Schreck