092
FZAK80 PAFC 062319
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
319 PM AKDT Monday 6 October 2025

FORECAST VALID...Saturday 11 October 2025

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high.

SYNOPSIS...A Bering Sea low will move north into the Chukchi Sea on
Wednesday and then into the Beaufort Sea on Thursday. The low
weakens as it moves east to the Canadian Archipelago on Friday.
Another low develops near the western Aleutians on Thursday and
lingers there through Saturday.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 45 to 140 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 45 to 60 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 20 to 45 nm-

The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 71 59N 154 54W
to 71 12N 150 36W to 71 27N 148 3W to 70 38N 147 9W to 70 33N
140 52W to 70 3N 138 23W and continues east into Canadian waters.
The ice edge is open water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort
Sea extends from 50 nm north of Ikiak to 40 nm northwest of Oliktok
Point to 65 nm northeast of Oliktok Point to 22 nm north of Flaxman
Island to 50 nm north of Demarcation Point to 60 nm northeast of
Demarcation Point and continues east into Canadian waters. The ice
edge is open water.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. New ice has developed along protected areas of
the coast, however warm air advection due to easterly winds has
started to melt the new ice. Winds shift southeasterly on Wednesday
and then southwesterly on Thursday which will move the main ice pack
generally to the north about 10-15 nm per day. The warm air mass
will inhibit new ice growth in the southern Bering Sea through
Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, winds shift westerly and will push
the ice pack to the east 10-15 nm per day.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-

The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 71 59N 154 54W
to 72 12N 162 21W to 73 7N 168 12W and continues southwest into
Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi
Sea extends from 50 nm north of Ikiak to 110 nm north of Icy Cape to
250 nm north of Cape Lisburne and continues southwest into Russian
waters. The ice edge is open water.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. New ice has developed along protected areas of
the coast from Point Lay to near Peard Bay, however easterly winds
develop Tuesday and will likely melt this new ice. A low will track
north across the Chukchi Sea mid-week which will bring variable
winds. Over the main ice pack, easterly winds will become
northeasterly on Wednesday, northerly on Thursday, and then westerly
on Friday and Saturday. Expect the ice pack to move in the direction
of the winds about 10-15 nm per day.

&&
Fenrich