820
FZAK80 PAFC 082313
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
313 PM AKDT Wednesday 8 October 2025

FORECAST VALID...Monday 13 October 2025

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high.

SYNOPSIS...A large low pressure in the Chukchi Sea weakens and moves
into the Beaufort Sea on Thursday then to the Canadian Archipelago
on Friday. A very strong low pressure system develops in the Bering
Sea over the weekend, moving into the southern Chukchi Sea early
next week.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 45 to 140 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 45 to 60 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 20 to 45 nm-

The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 71 59N 154 54W
to 71 12N 150 36W to 71 27N 148 3W to 70 38N 147 9W to 70 33N
140 52W to 70 3N 138 23W and continues east into Canadian waters.
The ice edge is open water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort
Sea extends from 50 nm north of Ikiak to 40 nm northwest of Oliktok
Point to 65 nm northeast of Oliktok Point to 22 nm north of Flaxman
Island to 50 nm north of Demarcation Point to 60 nm northeast of
Demarcation Point and continues east into Canadian waters. The ice
edge is open water.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. The next two days will feature melting along the
Beaufort Sea coast as southerly winds and warmer air affect the
area. The ice edge will retreat to the north 10-20 nm. As colder air
filters in behind the system, Friday into Saturday a brief period of
growth is possible. However, Sunday into Monday another front of
warmer air move overhead along with southerly winds which will
continue melt along the coast. These winds will likely push the ice
edge to the north 20-30 nm/day early next week.


-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-

The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 71 59N 154 54W
to 72 12N 162 21W to 73 7N 168 12W and continues southwest into
Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi
Sea extends from 50 nm north of Ikiak to 110 nm north of Icy Cape to
250 nm north of Cape Lisburne and continues southwest into Russian
waters. The ice edge is open water.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Over the main ice pack, cold air and
northwesterly winds will bring a period of advance and growth
Thursday into early Saturday. Expect the ice edge to advance
southward 10-20 nm/day. On Sunday a front from the Bering Sea will
bring a period of southerly winds into Monday which will retreat the
ice edge around the same amount.


&&
Lawson