715
FZAK80 PAFC 252354
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
255 PM AKST Monday 25 November 2024

FORECAST VALID...Saturday 30 November 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High

SYNOPSIS...High pressure sits over the Chukchi Peninsula then
migrates over the Alaska mainland by Wednesday. The storm track
overall remains from the northern Pacific Ocean into the Gulf.
Arctic air will establish itself over the mainland this week and
promote a period of ice growth in most areas.


-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Light westerly winds will prevail through
Wednesday which will counter the movement of the Beaufort Gyre and
keep ice stationary. A brief period of southerly winds on Thursday
will exist which will open a small polynya along the shorefast ice
of the North Slope coastline. Overall expect ice to continue to
thicken through the period and shorefast ice expanding away from the
coast.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-

Ice covered.

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

In the Chukchi Sea, the main ice edge extends from near Wales to 67
9N 165 49W to 67 28N 169 4W to 66 54N 170 6W to 65 55N 169
37W. The ice edge is open water.


From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from
near Wales to 40 nm southwest of Kivalina to 70 nm southwest of
Point Hope to 110 nm southwest of Point Hope to 20 nm northwest of
Diomede.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Light and variable winds along with very cold
air will allow for a period of growth through Wednesday. Expect the
ice edge to continue to expand away from the coasts and southward 20
to 30 nm. A period of southerly winds will pause growth and push the
ice edge back to the north, especially where currents align with
winds and push open water or the marginal ice zone west of Point
Hope. Otherwise expect ice to continue to thicken and grow out from
the coast. The Wales to Espenberg coastline will see widespread new
ice growth during this week.


-BERING SEA-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

In the Bering Sea, the ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to
59 34N 162 21W to 59  32N 163 50W to 61 49N 166 29W to 64 14N
164 24W to 64 40N 166 56W to near Wales. There is also ice
between Naknek and Cape Constantine. The ice edge is open water.


From land-based points in Alaska, the ice edge in the Bering Sea
extends from near Cape Newenham to 20 nm southwest of Quinhagak to
25 nm southwest of Kwigillingok to 15 nm west of Hooper Bay to 13 nm
south of Port Safety to 35 nm south of Port Clarence to near Wales.
There is also ice between Naknek and Cape Constantine. The ice edge
is open water.

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)... Forecast
confidence is high. A period of ice growth will ensue over the next
week as arctic air establishes itself over Interior Alaska. The
caveat would be stronger winds from the Kuskokwim Delta through
Bristol Bay may inhibit ice growth. However the magnitude of the
cold air may win out and still allow for ice to grow from the coast.
Norton Sound will likely re-freeze in entirety after last week`s
warmup as well as ice growing out from the Yukon Delta.



&&
Lawson