213
FGAK78 PAFC 082319
ESFAFC
AKZ755-756-090630-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
319 PM AKDT Fri May 8 2026

...BREAKUP OUTLOOK...

CURRENT SITUATION:

As of Friday morning, an ice jam remains 15-20 miles downstream of
Aniak, near Birch Crossing. Water levels in Aniak rose Thursday
evening and overnight. Ice shifted at Kalskag, creating cracks and
pressure ridges. Flood products are currently in effect for both
Aniak and Kalskag.

Downstream communities, including Bethel, can expect water levels to
fluctuate or gradually rise as the breakup front advances. Intact
ice downriver toward Bethel continues to thermally degrade, and open
water is expanding near local sloughs and side channels.

The River Watch team continues to fly to assess river conditions. To
share any local observations, please email aprfc@noaa.gov,
anchorage.weather@noaa.gov, or call 907-266-5160.

FULL GRAPHICAL OUTLOOK:

The graphical Alaska Spring Breakup Outlook products are posted to
the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center website at:
www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupProducts

A direct link to the latest graphical product is:
www.weather.gov/media/aprfc/BreakupProducts/ESFAK_ACR_20260508.pdf

UPDATES FROM THE PREVIOUS SPRING BREAKUP OUTLOOK:

We are at the midpoint of the spring breakup season. Mild
temperatures and greater overall cloud cover have worked to delay
breakup and reduce flood impacts so far by slowing ice and snow
melt. The overall breakup flood threat is trending near normal. As
we look into the next few weeks, temperatures are expected to remain
mild. The the things to watch:

Lower Kuskokwim River: The breakup front is at Aniak, and
hydrologists will monitor how the breakup front from the upper river
will impact the yet untested ice on the Lower Kusko.

Flooding and ice jams so far this spring have occurred on the
Kuskokwim River at Aniak.

STATEWIDE FLOOD POTENTIAL OVERVIEW:

The breakup flooding potential is normal across most of mainland
Alaska. With the Upper Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers broken up, the
remaining areas of concern are the Lower Yukon, Lower Kuskokwim, and
the North Slope.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS:

The Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center has updated the format of
its breakup outlook and summary products. The new format has moved
to a graphical presentation, away from the historically text-based
product. The graphical Alaska Spring Breakup Outlook products are
posted to the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center website at:
www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupProducts

$$

MJB