929
FXAK68 PAFC 291334
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
534 AM AKDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The overall synoptic pattern has changed little since yesterday
with a high pressure ridge over the interior, a low toward the
Bering Sea, and the large weakening low that is continuing to
circulate nearly stationary across the Gulf this morning.
Shortwave troughs are expected to maintain periods of showery
conditions for Southcentral today through Monday. Showers are
expected to move from northeast along the Al-Can to southwest
across the Copper River Basin toward Prince William Sound. Some of
these showers may be moderate to heavy at times as they approach
mountain barriers where additional lift can help to rain out
moisture. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this
afternoon, primarily along the Alaska Range and Talkeetna
mountains. Cool, cloudy conditions yesterday inhibited convective
development, but should areas northwest of the main precipitation
swath that catch some daytime heating or waves of energy that
drift into just the right conditions, thunderstorms may initiate.
Showers from today could spill over the Talkeetna, Chugach, and
Kenai mountains, though any precipitation associated should be
light. Chances for precipitation in the Anchorage area look to
increase later tonight through Monday morning.

Embedded within the periphery of the Gulf low is a robust
shortwave, currently over southwestern Yukon Territory. This
trough is set to move across Southcentral tonight into Monday.
There are still differences in timing for precipitation,
particularly due to nature of the rainfall appearing to come in
periodic waves and the strength of each embedded trough helping to
send them through the area. All the while, Kodiak looks to have a
break from the wind and rain with partly to mostly sunny skies.

Later Monday through Tuesday, the Gulf low meanders eastward with
higher pressure filling in for Southcentral. Any showers that
linger will be near terrain. The next disturbance for Southcentral
will be possible around midweek from either the front that
reaches Southwest Alaska into the western Gulf and/or a shortwave
trough that stretches from the Northwest Territories to our
northeast to a southwest trajectory into Copper River Basin and
into Southcentral. While models are suggesting this, there are
plenty of synoptic players involved and a lot can change in the
details between now and then.

Rux

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This morning through Tuesday night)...

Upper-level shortwaves continue to rotate around the weakening
low in the Gulf throughout today before slowly drifting into the
North Pacific tonight. These disturbances are again providing a
chance for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon and
evening near the Western Alaska Range, though are expected to be
less widespread than yesterday. Any thunderstorms that are able to
develop will taper to showers by tonight as the next big weather-
maker arrives from the Bering Sea.

Focus then shifts out west to the aforementioned low that has
emerged off of the Kamchatka Peninsula this morning with its front
pushing across the western Bering and Western Aleutians. The
front will continue to advance eastward through the Bering and to
the Pribilof Islands by Sunday afternoon as the low advances up
the eastern coast of Kamchatka. A warm push of air along with
plentiful moisture from the tropical Pacific will accompany this
system. The front along with gusty southerly winds and moderate to
heavy rain at times arrives to the Kuskokwim Delta Coast Sunday
evening.

Rain works into Bristol Bay and the interior Kuskokwim Delta
Monday morning. A reinforcing shot of warm air and moisture get
pulled northward into the Western and Central Aleutians as well as
the Pribilof Islands also on Monday. This activity moves east to
the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) for
Tuesday as the initial front moves further inland to the Kuskokwim
Valley by then. The heaviest rain looks to fall across the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast on Monday and across the Bristol Bay Coast,
southern AKPEN, and western Kuskokwim Valley for Tuesday.

Rain continues to linger across mainland Southwest through
Tuesday evening with the heaviest along the southern AKPEN as the
low tracks to the eastern Bering by then. A ridge builds in behind
the low across the rest of Bering with quieter weather across the
Western and Central Aleutians Tuesday evening as the Eastern
Aleutians contend with northerly flow and rain showers downstream
of the ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The long term forecast remains on track with a building upper-
level ridge becoming nearly stationary over the northern half of
Alaska through the July 4th holiday weekend. Upstream and south of
the ridge, the longwave trough will dig from the Bering Sea across
the AKPen and into the Gulf of Alaska. The result will be a area
of low pressure dropping across the AKpen Wednesday and weakening
as it enters the far southwestern Gulf for Thursday. Upstream, any
developing lows over the western Bering look to track along the
Aleutian Chain, then south into the North Pacific, through the
period as the ridge holds and keeps the storm track south of the
Alaska Mainland.

This pattern will favor easterly flow across the southern half of
the state, with mid- and upper-level easterly waves embedded in
the flow moving periodically across southern Alaska through next
week. These waves will likely bring periods of rain showers to
the coast, along with increasing chances for thunderstorms across
interior Southern Mainland, through the week. There is still some
uncertainty in the north-south positioning of the features, and
this will have an impact on how far inland we will see
precipitation. Generally warmer than normal temperatures are
expected over interior locations by the second half of the week
while coastal areas will remain moderated.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions continue through the rest of today. Expect
south to southeasterly winds from Turnagain Arm to bend into the
airport late this afternoon through shortly after midnight. Gusts
around 20 kts likely with an occasional gust to 25 kts possible
between 8PM and midnight. Showers are possible within the vicinity
this afternoon and chances will increase overnight. By Monday
morning, showers are likely with MVFR conditions.

&&


$$