315
FXAK68 PAFC 281312
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
512 AM AKDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Showers persist along the coast this morning with stray showers
moving from east to west across much portions of Southcentral. A
broad upper level trough has meandered its way into the Gulf with
embedded shortwaves moving cyclonically around its periphery.
Associated wind speed with each wave is expected to be a light
breeze with peak winds around 20 knot winds expected along the
frontal boundary in the north and western portions of the gulf.
Towards the interior of the state is high pressure. The coastal
ridge with a pressure gradient hugging the coastal mountains has
weekend some compared to the previous few days. Thus winds
through the gaps are much less pronounced. To the Alaska west
coast is a weak upper level low that is continuing to weaken.
However, it is also continuing to sink a little farther south
which will interact with the front associated with the Gulf low
for this weekend.

A rather robust shortwave located on its eastern flank will be
part the main weather maker for this weekend in Southcentral. This
precipitation forecast has been rather tricky with the details.
Although there is relatively high confidence regarding rainfall
for this weekend across Southcentral, forecast timing has been the
main challenge as models struggle to come into agreement. There
are some common themes however. A few showers and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms may develop along the foothills of higher
elevations, including the Alaska Range and the eastern slopes of
the Talkeetna mountains and the Copper River Basin this afternoon
and evening as the aforementioned vigorous easterly shortwave
makes progress rounding the upper level low in the Gulf. Locally
heavy downpours are possible in these locations as lapse rates
steepen and cooler air moves in aloft. Initially, flow from these
showers look to shift from east to west to more of a northeast to
southwest flow direction this afternoon. Upslope enhancement is
possible for rainfall as it packs along the Talkeetna and Chugach
Mountains. Overall storm motion and instability ahead of the wave
may drag some convective cells as far south as Palmer for a time
this evening into Sunday morning. The flow of the main axis of
precipitation could be more north to south heading into Sunday as
the pattern amplifies and the low out west interacts with the
westward progression of the trough. Therefore, timing for
precipitation to cross west of the Talkeetnas, Chugach, and Kenai
Mountains into much of the Susitna Valley and Cook Inlet
communities at the end of this weekend remains a challenge.

Models are in better agreement of the precipitation that develops
and its characteristics compared to how they appeared the past
few days, however there is some disagreement on the amount of
precipitation and its temporal/spatial expanse of the storms.
However, there is above average confidence that much of
Southcentral could see a wetting to soaking rain at some point
later this weekend. Showers may linger into the beginning of the
workweek ahead, but chances for wetting rains overall should begin
to taper off Monday night and we return to a light showers
regime.


-McCormick/Rux


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This afternoon through Monday evening)...

The large low in the Gulf continues to sit and spin to the east
of Kodiak Island this morning through Sunday. Numerous shortwaves
continue to rotate around this low and across Southwest Alaska
also through Sunday. Light rain has overspread portions of the
Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Valley overnight and this morning
and will continue to track south-southeast into northern Bristol
Bay through the morning hours before dissipating this afternoon.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and
evening across interior Bristol Bay and along the Western Alaska
Range with the best chances for lightning strikes being across the
Western Alaska Range. There is a low chance for a lightning
strike or two as far south as Dillingham this afternoon and
evening but confidence remains low. Confidence is a little higher
for a few strikes around the King Salmon area. The interior sees
another chance for isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening mostly centered along the Western Alaska Range. The setup
for Sunday does not appear to be as widespread as what is expected
for today as far as lightning strikes are concerned.

Further west, the large area of high pressure continues to occupy
much of the Bering throughout today. Behind the ridge, an area of
low pressure near Kamchatka moves eastward into the western
Bering Sunday into Monday morning. Ahead of this system,
conditions have begun to deteriorate early this morning as its
front has reached the western Aleutians, bringing elevated
southerly winds and rain. The front will continue to push north
and east across the western Bering through today as the ridge
begins to weaken to the east, with a west to east moving corridor
of gale-force winds across the western and central Bering through
Sunday. Most precipitation with this system will stay confined to
the Bering Sea itself once it moves off to the north by this
evening. Warm air from the tropical Pacific moves in behind the
front starting this evening as does additional moisture. Showers
move back into the Western Aleutians for Sunday as the front makes
it to the Pribilof Islands by then. Light to moderate rain moves
into the Pribilof Island Sunday morning to early Sunday afternoon
and then to the mainland southwest coast by Sunday night. Expect
elevated southerly winds and widespread light to moderate rains
across the Kuskokwim Delta, coastal Bristol Bay, and the AKPEN for
Monday. The front and rain pushes inland to the Kuskokwim Valley
and interior Bristol Bay for Monday evening as showers look to
continue across the Aleutian Chain then.


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

A broad, closed upper level low continues to reside in the Gulf
of Alaska while high pressure strengthens in Interior Alaska at
the start of the long term forecast period. A fast moving low in
the southern Bering Sea will push the remnants of Tropical
Depression Sepat across the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday, bringing
enhanced winds and rain to the region before phasing with the Gulf
low on Wednesday. An Omega Block pattern looks to take shape by
Thursday with a Kamchatka low drifting to the central Bering,
closed high pressure interior, and the resident low pressure
system in the northern Gulf. Easterly shortwave troughs moving
through the Gulf low will likely bring periods of rain showers to
the southern coast through the week, but North - South positioning
of the system will have an impact on how far inland we will see
precipitation. Generally warmer than normal temperatures are
expected over interior locations by the second half of the week
while coastal areas will remain moderated.


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Winds
expected to remain at or below 10 knots, southerly to
southwesterly.


&&


$$