905
FXAK68 PAFC 100116
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 PM AKDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak, dissipating front crosses Prince William Sound through
tomorrow morning continuing scattered precipitation and coastal
fog for those areas through then. After a drier day tomorrow
across Southcentral, another round of rain moves into the region
this weekend.

Precipitation will persist in the Prince William Sound and Copper
River Basin areas through the overnight hours. Precipitation
amounts through 4:00pm today range from 0.10" to 0.20"; highest
in the Copper River Basin closest to the Alaska Range. Overnight,
areas of fog are possible. Elsewhere across Southcentral, a mix
of sun and clouds with dry conditions will be common through
tomorrow evening as ridging builds through the day.

Rain will overtake Southcentral through the day on Saturday as a
front associated with a Bering Sea low moves northward. Ahead of
the front, westerly winds through the Barren Islands increase from
small craft advisory to gale warning.

Kodiak Island: Dry conditions will persist into late tomorrow
afternoon despite increasing cloud cover. Late tomorrow evening,
a front associated with a Bering Sea low moves over the Island.
Southerly to southeasterly winds and precipitation will
overspread the Island tomorrow evening and continue through the
day Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday night)...

Key messages:

 - A Storm force front over the western Bering Sea will reach the
   Southwest coast as a weakening gale force front Friday
   evening. The threat for coastal flooding along the Kuskokwim
   Delta Coast for this first storm remains low.

 - The extratropical remnants of Typhoon Halong will cross the
   Aleutians into the Bering Sea Saturday night into Sunday,
   becoming a powerful Hurricane force low as it heads towards
   Saint Matthew Island on Sunday.

 - High Wind Watches have been issued for the Pribilof Islands
   and the Kuskokwim Delta Coast for late Saturday into Sunday.
   Peak wind gusts ranging from 60 to 80 mph are possible.

 - Coastal flooding will be possible this weekend across the
   Kuskokwim Delta Coast as strong winds associated with Halong.
   Water levels will likely be similar to what many communities
   observed during the onshore wind event earlier this week.

Discussion:

A shortwave trough is moving over Southwest this afternoon,
helping to kick of widely scattered shower activity moving east
across much of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta. Out in the
west, a Storm force front has just passed Shemya on its way into
the Bering, briefly resulting in a couple gusts up to 75 mph with
the frontal passage at Shemya itself. A sharpening upper level
ridge is sandwiched in between the two systems, providing much of
the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula and Pribilofs with a break from
the clouds and stronger winds for the time being.

Looking to the forecast, things are looking on track for the next
24 hours or so. The currently storm force front moving into the
western Bering Sea will advance quickly across the Bering Sea and
Aleutians tonight into Friday, weakening to gale force as it does
so, with the exception of a small pocket of Storm force winds
moving near Saint Matthew. Gale force winds will become more
southwesterly behind the frontal passage across the western Bering
and Aleutians near the parent low drifting up past Kamchatka
through Friday night. Meanwhile, the front will begin to weaken
more rapidly as it approaches the Southwest Coast late on Friday
night and as steady rainfall along the boundary heads into
interior Southwest. The potential for coastal flooding and erosion
continues to look very minor with the arrival of this next front,
with the best chance for some nuisance level flooding to impact
Kwigillingok and Kongiganak late Friday night as southerly winds
briefly tick up and then rapidly weaken early on Saturday.

From there, all eyes shift to the expectations for what is
currently still Typhoon Halong. Halong will reach the Aleutian
Chain in a more weakened (and no longer tropical) state on
Saturday morning as it curves north around the slowly filling
Kamchatka low to the west. However, there is increasing model
agreement that the low will interact favorably with an upper
level jet streak and shortwave trough lifting into the Bering
around the same time. Halong`s remnant center will re-intensify
rapidly as it heads nearly due north from Saturday into Saturday
night, becoming a Hurricane force low as it reaches peak intensity
early Sunday as it passes over or very close to Saint Matthew
Island. Seas will build quickly near the swath of Hurricane force
winds, with waves of 25 to 35 feet or higher possible,
particularly on Sunday morning across waters between the Pribilof
Islands and Saint Matthew. Wind gusts of up to 80 mph will be
possible across the Pribilof Islands as the center passes to the
northwest, most likely during the early Sunday morning period as
the core of Hurricane force winds passes just to the north.

Later on Sunday, Halong will continue to move quickly north,
reaching Saint Lawrence Island sometime during the afternoon.
Strong and gusty southwest winds will shift into the Southwest
coast, particularly across parts of the Kuskokwim Delta. Inland
areas of the Kuskokwim Delta will likely see winds gusting as high
as 50 to 60 mph, while areas along the coast north of Kipnuk and
across Nunivak Island could see gusts as strong as 75 mph from
Sunday morning into Sunday evening. The strong onshore winds will
likely cause areas of coastal flooding and erosion along the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast, with current indications suggesting water
levels will peak at very similar values to what most communities
observed during the recent storm system earlier this week. While
overall forecast confidence for this system continues to improve,
there is still some uncertainty for the exact timing of strong
winds, high waves and potential coastal flooding. Stay tuned for
updates as we continue to monitor this significant fall storm
system.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The long term forecast in Southcentral begins with lingering
rainfall from a front that pushes into the region on Sunday. Most
rainfall will be seen in the Prince William Sound region and the
Copper River Basin. Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley could also see
some lingering rainfall until Monday evening. Tuesday sees a ridge
move into the Gulf, decreasing rain chances and wind speeds. By
Tuesday night/early morning Wednesday, troughing and a front will
arrive in the Gulf, once again increasing rain chances and wind
speeds. Gusty gap winds will be possible with this front,
especially around the Barrier Islands and south of Kodiak Island.
Later, the core of winds may move into Prince William Sound. This
could drive up winds speeds in Anchorage as well, but exact wind
direction will play a role, so it remains to be seen which
scenario plays out. By Wednesday evening, the front will move east
and wind speeds will decrease. Rain chances will remain elevated
for the coastal regions of Southcentral while inland areas will
have less chances for rain. Quasi-zonal flow on Thursday will
allow for lower winds speeds and low rain chances.

Once again, the main action happens in Southwest Alaska. The tail
end of the powerful low associated with the remnants of Typhoon
Halong will still be affecting Nunivak Island with gale force
southerly winds until the afternoon. By Monday morning, a weak
ridge will build into the Bering, giving them a short break in
strong winds and heavy rain before the next system arrives
shortly. The next low pushes into the Western Aleutians by Monday
afternoon and brings gale to storm force winds. Much uncertainty
remains on the exact track, strength, and size of this low, but
the current thinking is that this low will be on the larger side
and will storm force winds impacting the Aleutian Islands and the
Pribilof Islands. It also has the potential to drive gusty
southerly winds into the Kuskokwim Delta coast and increase water
levels. It is too early to say if coastal flooding will be an
issue for communities along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast, so continue
to monitor the forecast for updates. Heavy rainfall is also
likely with this low and will move into the Southwest Mainland by
Tuesday. The low will push onshore by Wednesday and will continue
to bring gusty winds and rains to the mainland. Quasi-zonal flow
sets up on Thursday, allowing winds to calm down and rain chances
to slowly drop off. More lows may arrive afterwards as the pattern
seems to remain the same throughout next week.

-JAR

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Winds are expected to cap out around 10 kt over the next day with
a westerly direction turning back to south or southeast overnight
and into Friday.

&&


$$