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FXAK68 PAFC 151420
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
520 AM AKST Sun Feb 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Areas of fog developed overnight along the northwest Kenai Peninsula
and central Cook Inlet and along the Knik Arm and Palmer Hay Flats.
Initially, these areas of fog were fairly transient with
visibilities varying as these areas of fog drifted around. One
blob moved north along the Parks Highway towards Talkeetna where
visibilities dropped to under a half mile. By early this morning,
fog and low stratus was starting to fill in across the northern
Cook Inlet, the Anchorage Bowl, and the Wasilla/Palmer area. And
while conditions are starting to improve as mid and higher level
cloud cover works in from the west, pockets of dense fog may
linger for several more hours this morning.

Quasi-zonal flow will turn more longitudinal today as an upper ridge
starts to amplify over the Northern Pacific and Bering Sea. This
amplification will continue into Monday as a strong low drops
southwards across the Panhandle and eastern Gulf, and another strong
low lifts up towards the Gulf of Anadyr in the western Bering Sea.
For today, a shortwave trough translating eastwards just south of
Norton Sound will bring increased cloud cover and a chance for light
snow showers along the western slopes of the Talkeetna and Chugach
Mountains, and the some lower end snow chances for the Mat Valley by
early to mid afternoon then moving into the Copper Basin with
increased snow chances for the western slopes of the Wrangells and
the eastern Alaska Range. Any snowfall amounts look light as this
system will move through quickly and have limited moisture to work
with.

The bigger story for the next few days will be colder temperatures
and strong gap winds along the coast. A series of low amplitude
short-waves embedded in the fast westerly flow will cross
Southcentral today, reinforcing the Arctic air and maintaining gap
winds.The aforementioned ridge will further amplify tonight and
Monday as it shifts eastward toward western Alaska. As a result, a
cold trough up over northwest AK, will be forced southward and
across Southcentral tonight and Monday, bringing even colder air
with it. This will once again cause gap winds along the coast to
strengthen. The track of the short-wave (and area of strongest cold
air advection) will be across the Copper River Basin. This will
bring the strongest winds to Valdez/Thompson Pass and the Copper
River Delta on Monday. The lack of a deep surface low in the Gulf is
the one piece missing to make this a high end wind event. Still,
expect strong and gusty winds. The bottom line for coastal areas:
winds will remain elevated through at least Monday, with some
fluctuations in strength as various short-waves and surges of cold
air move through. Meanwhile, much colder temperatures will settle
over the region, with each day colder than the previous.

- PP/SEB


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Points:

*A Blizzard Watch remains in effect for the southwest coastline as
 a strong front, associated with a strong Bering Low, pushes
 inland Sunday night through late Monday. Impacts include moderate
 to heavy snowfall, wind gusts up to 50 mph and reduced
 visibilities down to a quarter mile.

Currently, there is a front moving through the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley, causing snowfall and gusty winds. Visibility is being
reduced due to blowing snow in this area. Elsewhere, a ridge is
allowing for calmer and clearer conditions across most of the
Southwest Mainland and the Aleutians. These conditions will not
last long as a large moisture plume pushes up from the North
Pacific into the Bering. This moisture plume is riding along a
front from a low pushing toward the Gulf of Anadyr. This front
will quickly push across the Aleutians, arriving at the Southwest
Mainland by Monday morning. The Aleutians will see moderate to
heavy precipitation and gusty southerly winds as the front passes.
A rain/snow mix or rain is the expected precipitation type due to
warm air advection. Once the front pushes onshore, gusty
southeast winds and snowfall will impact the Southwest coastline.
Blowing snow which could reduce visibility below a quarter of a
mile is possible. Due to this threat, the Blizzard Watch remains
in effect. Snowfall is expected in the interior as the front moves
inland, but wind speeds will not be great enough for blizzard
conditions. The front will dissipate by Tuesday, leading to calmer
and clearer conditions for a short time.

Behind the front is another plume of moisture. This thin plume
will stretch from the Western Aleutians, through the Pribilof
Islands, to the Kuskokwim Delta by Tuesday. Another round of
snowfall is expected along with elevated wind speeds. It is
possible that blowing snow could impact the Kuskokwim Delta with
this event, but there is some uncertainty in exact wind speeds.

-JAR/AB


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Models are in fair agreement with the pattern through the end of
next week. A weak front moves through Southcentral Wednesday. This
will bring a chance for light snow across the region. After
Wednesday, a ridge builds in the Western Aleutians and Bering. A
shortwave moves into the Western Aleutians Thursday, which will
increase the chance for rain. This shortwave is broken up by the
building ridge though, which moves to the Central Aleutians by
Saturday.

As the ridge builds to the west, an Arctic trough digs southward
across mainland Alaska. This trough moves through Southwest Alaska
Wednesday and Thursday, which will increase the chance for light
snow across the Kuskokwim Valley. Southcentral looks to be dry as
the trough moves through. Constant northerly winds will cool
temperatures across the mainland through the end of the week. By
Friday, a vertically stacked low moves into the northern Gulf. The
primary concern with this will be gap winds through the Barren
Islands starting Thursday. Conditions for gusty gap winds on
Friday look favorable from Kodiak Island through the AKPen as
well. Gap wind chances persist into Saturday as the low continues
to move southeast.


PA


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Low end MVFR to IFR visibility and IFR to LIFR ceilings
will most likely prevail through most of the morning hours of the
TAF period. Areas of fog can be seen this morning on satellite
along the Knik Arm, across Anchorage, and farther south down the
Cook Inlet. Expect fog to begin to scatter out around 18z to 20z.
Winds will generally be light and southerly this morning, though
will turn more southeasterly after 00z with occasional gusts over
10 knots possible.

&&


$$