223
FXAK68 PAFC 080152
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Message:

Weather continues to remain active across Southcentral Alaska
with continued threats of snow, blowing snow, strong winds, and
dangerously low wind chills through the end of the weekend. The
cold airmass will be with us well beyond the end of the short
term.

...Active Warnings and Advisories...

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been extended for Northeast Kodiak
  Island through 6AM Monday morning for up to 5 inches of
  additional snowfall and continued blowing snow. Winds gusts as
  high as 45 mph.

- A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Matanuska Valley
  through 1PM Monday for 35 to 50 mph winds with gusts up to 80
  mph.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Anchorage and the NW Kenai
  Peninsula through 1PM Monday. North winds of 15 to 25 mph with
  gusts to 45 mph expected. Strongest winds expected along the
  Knik Arm from Birchwood southwest, across North and West
  Anchorage, and along the coast of the northern Cook Inlet,
  including Kenai and Nikiski.

- A Blizzard Warning has been extended through 4PM Monday for
  Thompson Pass for ground blizzard conditions. Wind gusts as high
  as 80 mph expected. Wind chills will remain near -40F.

- A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the Copper River
  Basin until 4PM Tuesday for very cold wind chills as low as 40
  to 50 below.

Discussion:

Very little has changed today, synoptically speaking. The overall
upper level pattern still consists of an upper low spinning over
the Gulf, with a trough digging once again east of Alaska as a
vertically stacked ridge that is more defined at 500 mb builds
eastward. The dense arctic airmass has continued to produce
strong gap flow winds through north/south oriented gaps and
passes, as has been the case the past 24-36 hrs. The strongest of
these winds are persisting across the Matanuska Valley and through
Thompson Pass where wind gusts of up to 75-85 mph are being
reported. Strong, but weaker winds are also being felt along the
Knik Arm to north and west Anchorage and along the coast of the
northern Cook Inlet, including Kenai and Nikiski. These winds in
the Advisory areas for Anchorage and NW Kenai Peninsula will
diminish through tomorrow morning. The Matanuska Valley winds will
still be cranking for a couple more days, but the expectation is
that they drop below high wind criteria early tomorrow afternoon,
with gusty winds still lingering through Tuesday afternoon.
Accumulating snowfall and blowing snow is still ongoing over
northern Kodiak Island this afternoon. Convective snow showers
that move over the northern part of the island has the potential
to significantly reduce visibility. The global models and high
resolution guidance shows periods of snowfall through Monday
morning. By Monday morning, the Gulf low affecting the island will
start to shear apart and move eastward. Looking at the upcoming
workweek, the weather looks to remain cold and mostly dry, with
gap winds continuing for favorable locations.

-AM/PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Wednesday evening)...

Active Products:

* Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Lower Kuskokwim
  Valley from Kalskag to Stoney until 6PM AKST Monday.

* Cold Weather Advisory in effect for the Central Alaska Peninsula
  (Port Heiden) until 6AM AKST Monday.

* Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast,
  Including Nunivak Island and the Interior Kuskokwim Delta until
  1PM AKST Monday.


Discussion:

Very cold temperatures and gusty winds will continue across
Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN); especially for
communities near the Western Alaska including Lime Village,
Sparrevohn, and Stoney. Wind chills 20 to 35 below zero are
expected to continue through at least Monday. The strong winds
have also lofted previously fallen snow along the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast. The lowest visibilities have been observed across Nelson
Island, including the communities of Toksook Bay and Tununak, as
well as Kipnuk. Winds will gradually diminish through the early
portions of next week. Additionally, conditions will remain dry
and mostly clear through early next week. Periods of snow showers
will continue across the southern AKPEN and Eastern Aleutians
through the rest of today, spreading west across the rest of the
Aleutians tonight and Monday.

With high pressure sitting over Southwest Alaska and much of the
Bering Sea/Aleutians, expected conditions to remain largely
unchanged through early/mid-week. Models are hinting at the next
front/low combinations entering the Western Bering/Aleutians
Wednesday morning. Though uncertainty remains, the consensus as of
now is for the front to remain mostly confined to the Western
Aleutians as the system brings some rain across the area and some
gale-force winds to the marine areas of the Western Aleutians by
early Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The long-term pattern will continue to be dominated by a strong
ridge in the central Bering Sea with quiet conditions across the
Central Aleutians since they will be mostly under the core of the
ridge axis. Across the Western Aleutians, weather will be a little
more active there as the area will be upstream/behind the ridge
and within southerly flow. A weak front will move over the Western
Aleutians both Thursday and another one may possibly clip the
area on Friday. Light rain chances are better for the system on
Thursday as the system on Friday may be a little too far west.
Each system will bring small-craft to gale-force winds across the
marine areas of the Western Aleutians. Rain chances decrease
Saturday and Sunday across the Western Aleutians. The Eastern
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN), and across the Southern
Mainland will remain downstream/ahead of the large Bering ridge
through the long-term. This will promote more northerly flow, cold
temperatures, and windy conditions; this is especially true
through the favored terrain, gaps, and passes of the Eastern
Aleutians, AKPEN, Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, Valdez Narrows,
and Thompson Pass. Most of the domain, except for the Western
Aleutians, stays dry through the period. The only exception maybe
Friday into Saturday when a weak shortwave drops down from the
north and brings some light snow to the Kuskokwim Valley and
northern Copper River Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with gusty northerly winds will continue
through the TAF period. Winds will decrease a bit overnight, but
still remain breezy with stiff northerly winds coming down the Knik
Arm and clipping the west side of Anchorage. Winds decrease
significantly going eastward, likely such that there may be a
noticeable difference in speed on the west side of the terminal
vs. east side at times.

&&


$$