461
FXAK68 PAFC 011312
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
512 AM AKDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

Unsettled weather will continue across Southcentral Alaska over the
next couple days as a large upper-level low centered across the Gulf
of Alaska and Northern Pacific sends disturbances northward. Latest
radar and satellite imagery reveals a band of precipitation
currently extending along an arc from the southern Talkeetnas
through the western Chugach and into the Kenai Peninsula. This area
of precipitation will gradually dissipate as it shifts south and
west through the morning. Another shortwave trough is currently
rotating north through the eastern Gulf and SE AK. This trough
will swing into Southcentral AK this afternoon and bring
widespread rainfall first into the Copper River Basin and then
into Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley later today and tonight as it
rotates westward. Sufficient instability exists for isolated
thunderstorm develop across the Copper River Basin westward
through the Talkeetnas and norther half of the Susitna Valley.
Winds will also increase out of the Turnagain Arm and Copper River
valley as coastal ridging induces a respectable pressure
gradient.

Precipitation then lingers across the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage,
Mat-Su, and adjacent areas Saturday morning before gradually
tapering off through the day. Conditions improve earlier in the day
across the Prince William Sound, as well as the Copper River Basin.
Should the latter receive enough heating, this may instigate
additional showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm in the vicinity
of the Wrangells or even the eastern Talkeetnas.

Sunday will begin the return of weather many of us consider ideal
when thinking about summer in Southcentral Alaska. Relative high
pressure begins to build across the area as the large upper-level
low that`s been centered across the Gulf lifts into SE AK and
Canada. Lingering low-level moisture combined with diurnal heating
should suffice for some afternoon mountain cumulus with a few
isolated showers. However, for most, expect clearing skies, not a
whole lot of wind, and temperatures climbing to around 70 for much
of the road system.

-Brown

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Sunday)...

The ridge that has dominated the Bering for weeks is finally
eroding as a large low in the Bering moves eastward. Before it
erodes, its swan song is in the form of mostly clear skies, light
winds, and warm temperatures for the Southwest mainland on Friday.
Despite the relatively calm conditions in the mainland, a large
low in the Gulf of Alaska will push waves into the Alaska Range.
This will allow thunderstorms to form along the mountains,
drifting off into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and north of
Iliamna. Meanwhile, the large low will sit in the Bering and
bring near gale force winds and rainfall throughout the Aleutians
from its front. Gap winds in the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska
Peninsula regions could reach gale force by Friday afternoon.
Saturday will be similar to Friday with the large low in the
Bering becoming quasi-stationary. However, the first front from
the low will reach the Southwest coast, allowing for rainfall and
breezy southeasterly winds. Inland areas will remain relatively
clear and warmer. Thunderstorm chances linger in the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley. The Bering will see continued rainfall and
winds, albeit weaker at this point. Gap winds will also weaken,
but may remain up to small craft strength.

On Sunday, the low in the Bering continues to be quasi-
stationary. More waves from the low move eastward. They push
onshore and give inland areas of Southwest Alaska chances for
rain. Meanwhile, the Bering will be very similar to Saturday with
less than small craft winds and rain chances in the Aleutians and
Pribilof Islands. Gap areas will retain the potential for small
craft winds. Looking ahead at Monday shows that the low will
still meander in the same area. A stronger front from the low
brings heavy rainfall to the Eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula,
and the Pribilof Islands.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Monday through Thursday)...

The general synoptic pattern shows a low near the southeastern
Panhandle and a broad low over the Bering Sea transiting
southeastward across the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Situated
between the lows and across much of the mainland is high pressure.
The front from the Bering Sea low will bring ample moisture
across the Alaska Peninsula starting this weekend. There are some
indications that multiple waves could keep precipitation across
the Alaska Peninsula into early next week. While there is moderate
to somewhat high confidence in the synoptic setup for the long
term, confidence in the precipitation details remains moderate to
low with the duration and amount of precipitation for next week.
Especially for the Alaska Peninsula, southwestern Alaska coast,
and Kodiak Island. Model consensus breaks down further into
midweek. Some models hint at low pressure interactions between a
new North Pacific low and the main Bering low as it transits
across the Alaska Peninsula. This could bring about gale force
winds along the frontal boundary.

Toward Southcentral, the forecast challenge will be with the
ridge across the mainland. The southeastern Panhandle low will
break down, but the potential for showers and thunderstorms
associated with the easterly waves will depend upon the timing of
the breakdown in the synoptic pattern into the Copper River Basin,
across Southcentral, and its extent into the Kuskokwim Valley.
There are also indications of a shortwave trough sinking into
Southcentral late Tuesday and the eastward push of the front from
the west.

Rux


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Few showers in the area of Anchorage should diminish this
morning. Conditions are expected to generally improve today with
VFR prevailing by late morning and continuing into the evening. A
trough moving in later will bring rain to the area overnight.
Confidence is high a gusty southeast wind out of Turnagain Arm
will develop, but lower in timing. This wind then weakens Saturday
morning, allowing slightly heavier (still light) rain and lower
ceilings.

&&


$$