827
FXAK68 PAFC 240118
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 PM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: Today through Saturday)...

Key Messages:

1) Several flood advisories remain in effect for multiple streams
and rivers across portions of the Mat-Su Valleys. See the
individual flood products in effect for additional details.

2) A much warmer, drier and sunnier pattern is expected to arrive
for the weekend for much of the region.

Discussion:

A major shift away from the prevailing soggy and overcast pattern
is already evolving this afternoon as a much drier airmass begins
to shift into the region in the wake of the very blustery and wet
morning we saw in many spots this morning. A potent shortwave
trough is now moving along the northern Alaska Range and portions
of the Copper River Basin, with a belt of very strong westerly
flow aloft speeding across the Gulf near the base of the trough.
Strong and gusty winds approaching Gale Force have also spread
across much of the northern Gulf, including near and to the north
of Kodiak Island. Farther north winds are finally beginning to
come down along the Cook Inlet and in/around Anchorage as
prevailing flow flips from southerly to westerly and as the strong
north-south pressure gradient erodes with the arrival of the
strong trough off to the north. Scattered rain showers are
continuing to affect parts of the Mat-Su Valleys and Copper Basin,
where plenty of cold air aloft near the shortwave is combining
with surface heating to support some convective instability.
However, the lingering showers will mostly taper off by tonight.

A much drier, clearer, warmer and overall more pleasant pattern
will continue to take shape as we look towards the weekend. North
to northwest flow will become established across Southcentral as a
stout ridge develops over the Bering Sea and as the trough
currently in place digs towards the eastern Gulf and Southeast.
Lingering issues with flooding across the Mat-Su should improve
with time as drainage from recent heavy rainfall steadily
decreases with the dry and warm conditions returning over the next
few days. Gusty northerly gap winds will pick up from tonight
into early Saturday thanks to the strong northerly flow, including
out of Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, and the Valdez Arm. Gusty
north winds out of gaps and passes will also pick up through
favored spots along the Alaska Range through early Saturday.

Apart from the winds in a few spots, it`s shaping up to be a great
weekend for outdoor activities. Temperatures will soar back up
into the upper 60s to mid 70s across lower elevations and
interior valleys for both Saturday afternoon and Sunday
afternoon. Still, overnight lows could actually be pretty chilly
for spots that stay clear and out of the winds, with some of the
coldest low spots likely to dip into the 40s or even upper 30s
early Saturday morning and again early Sunday morning.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

Rainfall and winds are winding down over Southwest Alaska as the
previously advertised storm continues eastward and dissipates.
Most rainfall is now limited to the eastern most parts of
Southwest Alaska along the Alaska Range. By Friday, expect mostly
sunny skies for inland areas as northerly flow takes over. This
also means that warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper
60s for these inland areas.

Meanwhile, a ridge is setting up over the Bering. This ridge will
build into the weekend and leading to less active weather over
the Aleutians. However, this also means that a return to
widespread low stratus and fog is returning. At the same time, a
plume of moistures is rising from the North Pacific and is riding
over the ridge. This will lead to rainfall from Shemya, through
the Pribilof Islands, and to the Alaska Peninsula throughout the
weekend. An upper low drops from Chukotka on Saturday and moves
through the Southwest Mainland. This will interact with the
moisture plume from before and will lead rainfall over mostly
the coastal areas of Southwest Alaska on Saturday. Also, small
craft winds out of bays and passes over the Alaska Peninsula
(AKPEN) and the Eastern Aleutians are expected Saturday and
Sunday as this upper low tightens pressure gradients. Timing and
the exact strength of this upper low are a bit uncertain at this
point, so wind speeds and rainfall intensity will depend on the
exact track of the low. If the low drops more to the east, more
rainfall over the mainland, and less gusty winds over the AKPEN
and Eastern Aleutians will occur.

-JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

No major changes from the previous discussion. Looking at 500 mb,
the global models remain in good agreement that the start of the
long term (Monday) will be comprised of a trough digging over much
of Alaska and the Gulf, ridging from the North Pacific extending
over the Aleutians over the Bering, and troughing over the
Kamchatka coast and Western Aleutians. As we head into mid week,
the ridging translates eastward and slowly flattens as the pattern
over the Aleutians and Bering becomes increasingly more
progressive. The trough over much of Alaska and the Gulf will help
to return rain chances to Southcentral by Monday. A surface low
is still on track to form somewhere across the north-central Gulf
Tuesday morning, which would act to enhance precipitation for
coastal Southcentral and Kodiak Island. Due to the breakdown and
movement of the ridge, this will pave the way for storm systems to
move eastward across the Aleutian Chain as any surface ridging
retreats southward into the North Pacific. By Wednesday or so,
uncertainty grows as model agreement degrades considerably.
Temperatures are on track to stay below normal for late July for
all of the Southcentral and Southwest Alaska in part due to rain
chances returning, and near normal to above normal for the Bering
Sea.

-AM


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Lingering gusty southerly winds will quickly diminish this
evening, turning more westerly before becoming light and variable
late tonight through early Friday morning. A scattered shower may
pass over the terminal between 4pm and 7pm this evening; however,
conditions will continue to improve as drier air moves in from
the north and cloud cover decreases. Increasing north-
northwesterly winds are likely beginning late Friday morning.
Gusts between 10 and 20 kt are possible through Friday afternoon.

&&


$$