279
FXAK68 PAFC 121422
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 AM AKST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday night)...

Relatively cold, quiet weather continues for much of Southcentral
Alaska. Latest VIIRS nighttime microphysics imagery shows a mix of
fog and low has stratus has developed across the northern Cook Inlet
and sloshing around across the northern Kenai Peninsula and somewhat
into Anchorage as well. 12z RAOB shows fairly substantial dry low-
level air, so further expansion this morning should be limited.

The most notable weather feature at the moment is that of a weak low
across the northern Gulf of Alaska, just south of the Prince William
Sound. PAHG radar shows showers activity spiraled out from this low,
with rain/snow observed at Cordova thus far. As we progress through
the day today (Wednesday), these showers should continue across the
greater Prince William Sound area, advecting west into Whittier
other coastal communities. Temperatures near freezing at sea level
are likely to lead to a mix of rain/snow or a wet snow for any of
the ports or coastal towns in the Sound.

For Kodiak Island, a decaying front will push across the island
today, bringing snow and near-sea level rain. By the time the front
makes it to Kodiak City, it should be rather diffuse and the
precipitation footprint shrinking. Light snow or rain/snow mix is
possible this afternoon before dissipating altogether.

Thursday will be a near repeat of Wednesday for many areas, though
increased cloud cover due to a shortwave trough lifting into the
region. Previous model runs had some precipitation making into Cook
Inlet and the Mat Valley / Talkeetnas, but latest guidance has
trended away from this solution. Most precip should remain confined
to the Prince William Sound amid weakening cyclonic flow. By
Thursday afternoon, precipitation in these parts should be winding
down as well.

The most substantial weathermaker in the forecast period enters
the area on Friday as an attendant front to a low in the Bering
pushes first into Kodiak Island in the morning and then into the
Kenai Peninsula later in the day. Model disagreement remains with
exact timing/placement and the possible development of a triple
point low near Kodiak Island, but the general consensus of
rain (higher-elevation snow) to the Island and then coastal Kenai
Peninsula is likely on Friday. The biggest hazard will be that of
increasing winds across the Gulf with widespread small-craft
(>23kt) winds and gales (>34kt) spreading into more channeled
spots such as by the Barren Islands and potentially Shelikof
Strait. The wind field here will ultimately depend on the
development of a new low along the frontal boundary - something
the models don`t quite have resolved as of this morning.

Elsewhere/inland locations, cold and generally dry, calm conditions
will prevail through the end of the week.

-Brown

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

This morning`s synoptic setup mainly consists of a 500 mb
shortwave lifting over the Southwest Alaska interior and a small
craft surface front moving closer to the Kuskokwim Delta coast.
Clearing and subsidence in the wake of the wave has allowed
portions of Southwest Alaska to cool below model guidance in many
cases tonight. However, higher clouds can be seen on nighttime
microphysics streaming over Southwest Alaska coastal areas out
ahead of the front situated just to the west, so temperatures
should remain steady-state or fluctuate for the rest of the mid-
morning hours. As the parent low remains quasi-stationary
northwest of Shemya through the near term, the front will continue
to elongate and weaken further as it moves across the Kuskokwim
Coast and Bristol Bay areas. A band of precipitation just ahead of
the front is poised to move inland this morning, along with gusty
winds. Some weak radar returns are already seen moving across
Kipnuk as of 4AM.

Models have come to better agreement this morning on how the
front breaks down, as most of the guidance shows surface troughing
flattening somewhat and a compact area of low pressure spinning
up along the decaying trough axis this morning/afternoon, which
still begs the question of whether blowing snow will be an issue
with this system. In short, the setup is marginal due to the front
being relatively weak, but a wild card factor will be exact
placement/strength of the compact low depicted in the models.
Blowing snow potential looks to be confined to the coastal areas
of the Kuskokwim Coast, but even then, depending on the exact
setup and low placement, there is a chance relatively warmer air
from the Bering sneaks in for a time and allows for rain to mix
in. All said, the Kuskokwim coast is on pace to see up to 2 inches
of snow out of this system.

By Thursday morning, a gale force North Pacific low moves
northward towards the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. The
global models have come into better agreement overnight on the
track of the low through Thursday afternoon, but quickly diverge
on placement from Thursday afternoon to Friday morning. The low
could be deepening through Friday morning as it aligns with a
positively tilted/digging upper level longwave trough working its
way eastward over the Aleutian Chain. Some of the guidance takes
the surface low farther northward into the southern Bering and
quickly kicks it eastward into the Gulf.

Heading into the weekend, the next low and potentially gale force
front reaches the western Aleutians. Shortly after, this system
begins to interact and phase with a much stronger North Pacific
low as it lifts across the Aleutians and into the Southern Bering
Saturday into Sunday with the potential for the storm to deepen to
a sub-950 mb low. There are a lot of details to iron out with
this system and any impacts related to the storm will be highly
dependent on storm track, in which confidence remains low at this
time. Please stay tuned and monitor the forecast for this upcoming
system.

-AM/JH


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The long term period begins at the start of the weekend with a
broad trough over the Bering and a second trough located over the
Gulf of Alaska. The latter trough shifts eastward into Canada as
energy digs it southeastward, taking the trough with it by Sunday
afternoon. General high pressure will continue across Southcentral
with dry and cool conditions anticipated into early next week for
the region. To the west and within the Bering Sea trough, a near-
stationary upper-low is forecast to remain mostly in place.

Of greater interest will be the arrival of a North Pacific low
across the Central Aleutians into the southern Bering on Saturday.
as it rotates into the broader Bering Sea trough. This low will
bring an abundance of moisture with it, originating from the South
China Sea, and an above normal chance for high winds through the
Aleutians on Saturday. Deterministic models and ensembles have
been hinting at significant deepening of the low as it moves
through the Aleutian Chain. However, there remains continued
uncertainty with exactly where this low will track once into the
Bering and how much the low itself will intensify. The latest
trend in forecast models take the low further west while it
rotates around the broad trough over the Bering Sea. Regardless of
the track, enhanced winds and heavy precipitation will be
possible. The threat of high winds quickly transitions from the
Aleutians to the Pribilof Islands on Sunday as the low lifts to
the north and northwest.

Even further out in the forecast models are hinting at yet
another North Pacific low to track into the Eastern Aleutians late
Monday into Tuesday. The passage of multiple lows moving into the
Bering with persistent southerly flow, will likely result in a
warming trend for Southwest Alaska. Above normal chances for
precipitation will develop Sunday into Monday as a front tracks
into the coast.


-BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Areas of fog and low stratus have persisted across the
northern Cook Inlet just off to the west of Anchorage,
occasionally sneaking into the terminal early this morning. There
will continue to be a threat for intermittent periods of IFR
conditions or lower if any additional stratus/fog manages to
drift into the terminal, especially this morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and light winds will persist.

-AS

&&


$$