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FXAK68 PAFC 221409
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 AM AKST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Satellite imagery from early this morning shows Southcentral
sitting underneath an upper level trough with the remnants of what
used to be a significant surface low just east of Kodiak. An area
of snowfall is in the western part of Cook Inlet along the
weakening frontal boundary. With temperatures just a few degrees
below freezing, this is potentially setting up the atmosphere for
fog and/or stratus across the Cook Inlet region. All it needs is
the slightest clearing and fog will be in a hurry to form this
morning. Persistent low clouds and fog may become the main weather
story for today into Sunday near Cook Inlet and in the Susitna
Valley.

By Sunday there should be a noticeable cooling, drying, and
clearing trend for the region as the low continues to move
eastward and weak high pressure aloft edges into the area. This
general pattern should persist through Monday giving more seasonal
temperatures and dry weather.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Monday night)...

A broad longwave trough extends across the majority of mainland
Alaska, anchored by a broad surface low centered in the Gulf of
Alaska. To the west of the trough axis, cold air filters south
across Southwest Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea. Weak cyclonic
flow aloft is providing enough lift for light snow to continue
across the Kuskokwim Delta. Despite gusty winds along the coast,
the light nature of the precipitation is preventing blowing snow
from reducing visibility below three miles for any sustained
period of time. Snow will trend down through the morning hours as
drier air moves in aloft with a ridge building in over the Bering
Sea and cutting off over the northern Bering/Chukotka by this
evening. A weak front associated with the Gulf low will produce a
separate area of light snow for the Western Alaska Range and the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley that is more likely to persist through the
day and taper off tonight. New snow accumulations are not
expected to exceed about an inch, while Bristol Bay remains dry.

A North Pacific arrives south of the western Aleutians today,
pushing a front into the western and central Bering Sea tonight.
Its front brings storm force easterly winds to portions of the
western and central Aleutians this evening through tonight, with
winds in Adak and Atka gusting as high as 65 mph along with
moderate to heavy rain. Winds diminish on Sunday as the strongest
corridor of winds lifts north of the islands into the Bering Sea
and the parent low weakens. The front, however, lifts across the
eastern Aleutians, and then to the Alaska Peninsula by Sunday
night, bringing gale force winds. The increasing proximity of the
low to Southwest Alaska, along with high pressure shifting
northward into the Chukchi Sea will draw northeasterly, offshore
winds across Southwest Alaska by Sunday. Colder air from the
interior will cause temperatures to steadily drop, reaching into
the single digits by Sunday night for most inland locations.
Coastal Bristol Bay sees low temperatures in the teens.

By Monday, the front lifts into the eastern Bering Sea and crosses
the Pribilof Islands. With the exception of the Alaska Peninsula,
Southwest Alaska looks to remain mostly dry and skies may even
begin to clear out Monday into Monday night. Temperatures,
however, begin to rebound somewhat as winds shift more easterly
and the nearby front brings warmer air into the region.

Quesada

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)...

Starting on Tuesday, a vertically stacked low and large cyclonic
circulation will be centered south of the Aleutians in a weakening
phase. Short-waves embedded within the circulation will track from
east to west from the western Gulf/Kodiak Island across the Alaska
Peninsula and Bristol Bay and continuing westward across the
southern bering Sea. None of the features look particularly
strong, so would expect areas of precipitation and wind with
typical winter- time impacts. Precipitation-type will be mainly
rain, with Bristol Bay being the only location cold enough to see
snow. The upper low will open up into a trough by Thursday
(Thanksgiving), causing winds and precipitation to diminish.

Meanwhile, a strong ridge in the Arctic will build southward over
the northern half of mainland Alaska. This looks far enough south
to block any short-waves from the Aleutian trough from reaching
interior SW AK or Southcentral AK. Thus, expect seasonably cool
and dry conditions for these areas Tuesday through Wednesday. A
short-wave will dig down the east side of the ridge on Wednesday,
across the Yukon and into the Copper River Basin. This will bring
marginally colder temperatures, though accompanying cloud cover
will likely limit temperature drops. This trough will force the
upper ridge to retreat back northward and allow a short-wave
trough to approach Southcentral on Thursday. Model agreement with
this feature is not great, but ensembles generally support this
idea. With a cold air mass in place over Southcentral, the most
likely outcome would be widespread light snow arriving sometime
Thanksgiving Day.

As we continue to Friday, model guidance is in excellent agreement
on amplification of the upper level flow and development of an
Atmospheric River. However, as would be expected this far out in
time, there is large spread in the location of the ridge/trough
and track of a leading surface low from the Pacific. This evolving
pattern does have good potential to bring higher impact weather
to southern Alaska, with strong winds, mixed precipitation-types,
and warming temperatures. Stay tuned as we monitor the location of
key features and identify the areas where the greatest impacts
are most likely.

-SEB

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Chances for snow continue to decrease this morning as a
low pressure system dissipates. Lingering low-level moisture and a
weakening wind flow in the lower half of the atmosphere will
likely result in low stratus remaining over the terminal through
the late morning, with ceilings expected to rise to VFR levels
afterwards. Winds become light and northerly by early Sunday
morning, potentially allowing for fog over the Knik Arm to drift
over the terminal and cause IFR conditions.

&&
$$