288
FXAK68 PAFC 191310
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 AM AKDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

Most of Southcentral is enjoying a break in the rain this morning
as a shortwave ridge moves overhead in between a small shortwave
trough exiting into the Yukon and a larger low pressure system
drifting across the eastern Bering Sea. Areas of mostly higher
clouds are persisting across a good portion of the region, with
low marine stratus mainly concentrated over the Gulf and near
Kodiak Island. A patch of low stratus has also developed over the
Cook Inlet this morning, bringing low overcast into Soldotna and
Kenai. Otherwise, it is a fairly typical August morning so far,
with seasonable temperatures in the 50s and light winds
prevailing.

Generally speaking, the forecast expectations through the end of
the week are little changed, with an overall cool and showery
pattern expected to continue. The low currently moving near the
AKPen and Bristol Bay will crawl slowly east past Kodiak Island
and into the Gulf of Alaska over the next few days, and this will
be the main focal mechanism for the continued wet and cloudy
conditions. An initial frontal wave moving ahead of the occluded
low will arrive in Kodiak later this morning, sending bands of
showers across the island for much of the day. This initial wave
of moisture and lift will continue northeast into the Kenai
Peninsula, Mat-Su and Prince William Sound, with light rain
progressing across much of Southcentral from southwest to
northeast through this evening.

By early Thursday, a weak low will attempt to form along the
surface front`s triple point in the Gulf somewhere in the
vicinity of the Barren Islands. A period of Small Craft winds
still looks on track to develop along the front south of Prince
William Sound and the Kenai Peninsula on Thursday before the front
reaches the coast and shears apart by Thursday evening. Farther
north, showery conditions will continue for much of interior
Southcentral through Friday as weak southerly flow ahead of the
weak Gulf low continues to transport moisture into the region.
Steadier rain will persist along the coast near Prince William
Sound until the low finally begins to shift to the east into the
Yakutat vicinity by Friday evening.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

Satellite imagery this morning shows the weak, vertically stacked
low nearly stationary north of the Alaska Peninsula as it slowly
creeps to the northeast into Bristol Bay. Scattered showers
associated with this system pushing north into Bristol Bay and the
southern Kuskokwim Delta early this morning will continue to
increase in coverage as the low tracks closer to the Bristol Bay
coast. The Kuskokwim Valley, Bristol Bay, and areas along the
western Alaska Range will see periods of steady, light rain
through Thursday morning before becoming more scattered Thursday
afternoon as the low further weakens and moves into the Gulf.

Farther to the west, a more notable system becomes the main focus
Thursday afternoon through Saturday as an upper-level trough will
dive southeastward out of the Arctic, across Siberia, and into
the northern Bering Sea by Thursday afternoon. A surface low will
spin up in the northern Bering as well Thursday afternoon with
gusty winds to the south of the low reaching the western Aleutians
by late morning Thursday. Small-craft winds with gale-force gusts
will expand east across the Aleutian Chain and southern Bering
throughout the day Thursday and into Friday morning as the low
tracks east over Saint Matthew Island. By Friday afternoon, expect
these winds to stretch north across the eastern Bering, giving
the Kuskokwim Delta coast a brief period of strong southerly flow.
Despite the onshore flow, coastal flooding concerns remain low
(less than 10 percent chance) as the tidal influence will be low
and the storm quickly progresses to the east.

This looks to be quite a wet system with moderate rain across the
Pribilof Islands to Coastal Southwest through Friday. Rain tapers
off across the Pribilof Islands beginning Friday afternoon as it
picks up intensity across Southwest by then. As the low continues
inland into the YK-Delta Friday night into Saturday, north-
northwest winds on the back side of the low bring another round of
gusty winds to Southwest Alaska and small-craft with gale-force
gusts to the eastern Bering through Saturday. Back behind this
system, a ridge builds in across the western Bering and Western
Aleutians Friday afternoon and evening. Stay tuned for forecast
updates regarding this late week storm.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The long term period begins with an amplified upper-level pattern
across Alaska as a deep trough and embedded upper low move across
the Bering and toward Southwest Alaska through the weekend. Strong
southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will connote to transport
moisture northward, supporting periods of rain across Southwest
Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) Saturday. The trough
gradually shifts east into mainland Alaska Sunday into Monday,
allowing steadier precipitation to spread into portions of
Southcentral while becoming more showery farther west.

By Monday, the upper low becomes centered over mainland Alaska as
the associated trough encompasses much of the state. This will
maintain cooler and unsettled conditions with scattered showers
across much of southern Alaska. Guidance then shows the trough
continuing eastward into Canada Tuesday while heights begin to
rise from the west. This should allow conditions to gradually
improve across Southwest Alaska and the Bering, though lingering
cyclonic flow may keep showers around portions of Southcentral.

Model agreement remains reasonable with the overall evolution of
the upper-level pattern, though differences increase early next
week regarding the exact position and progression of the upper
low. These differences will ultimately influence the placement of
heavier precipitation and stronger winds. overall, an unsettled
and relatively cool pattern begins to shift eastward Tuesday as
heights gradually rise over the western Bering.

LM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and ceilings above 5000 ft will persist
through about 00Z this afternoon. Some patchy low stratus has
developed over portions of the Cook Inlet this morning, but it
looks most likely to remain to the west of the terminal through
this afternoon. Rain showers begin around 00Z as a weak low moves
into Southcentral, with rain likely to persist through about 09Z.
Ceilings will likely drop to MVFR during this period, with
visibilities dropping as low as 4SM. After 09Z, steady rain tapers
off, though rain chances remain around 30 to 40% as scattered
showers linger. Ceilings will likely remain predominantly VFR.
Light winds persist.

&&


$$