


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
402 FXAK68 PAFC 011309 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 509 AM AKDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)... As was mentioned yesterday, Southcentral Alaska remains in a col between upper level ridging to the northeast and southwest, and upper level lows to the west and southeast. The low to the west is the one that is sending a front toward Kodiak and is bringing some rain from Kamishak Bay to Kodiak early this morning. This front will stall out today as the low digs to the southeast and undercuts the weak ridge that is trying to build into Southcentral from the north. The result will be rain for Kodiak Island today into Wednesday night. The clearing over the Copper River Basin early this morning should expand to the southwest today and overcome the clouds moving in from the west over Cook Inlet and the Susitna Valley. These mid and higher level clouds are associated with that low to the west while the lower level clouds persisting over Anchorage and along the western slopes of the Talkeetna, Chugach and Kenai Mountains are due to the persistent marine layer that has invaded the Cook Inlet region the past few days. This shift in pattern should allow the Anchorage area and other areas near Cook Inlet to finally clear out the clouds to a better degree are the synoptic flow will finally turn to more down-inlet and advect that marine airmass away from the area. In addition, Turnagain Arm winds are expected to develop over Anchorage the next two afternoons and evenings which will also bring in a modified airmass to lower levels which should only help the situation. While some sunny breaks are expected over the region today into Thursday, it will likely not be a complete clearing out of the clouds as a short wave is expected to move into the Copper River Basin on Wednesday and then toward the Cook Inlet region for Thursday. There will be clouds associated with this shortwave and rain is likely in the eastern Copper Basin as it moves through. With it reaching that area in the early morning hours on Wednesday, it is less likely to initiate Thunderstorms with it as it goes though. However, after it passes through the area, the atmosphere will likely be unstable enough for some thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. One of the biggest forecast questions this morning is how far westward the rain will progress on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)... A mature low pressure system over the Alaska`s west coast continues to bring gusty southerly winds and moderate to heavy rain to the region today. Abundant tropical moisture being drawn north across the Alaska Peninsula will deliver a swath of rain from Togiak to King Salmon, up through Aniak and Sleetmute. Additional rain amounts between 0.6 and 1.5 inches are expected through this afternoon, with the heaviest totals expected from Dillingham to the north. This system will slowly drift south today before a triple point low forms south of the AKPEN Wednesday morning, which will taper off precipitation by Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, for the rest of the Bering Sea, a ridge will build behind the low, bringing quieter weather across the Western and Central Aleutians tomorrow evening. The Eastern Aleutians will continue to contend with northerly flow and rain showers downstream of the ridge through Wednesday morning. Areas of fog are likely to redevelop for the western Bering and Aleutians, beneath the ridge, before the front of a new low out of Kamchatka sweeps across the western Bering Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... Starting off the long term is the presence of an upper high in northern Alaska. This, combined with an upper low in the Gulf of Alaska will allow easterly flow into inland areas of Southcentral. This flow will allow for chances for showers and thunderstorms in the Copper River Basin, and the Talkeetna Mountains for the 4th of July. Easterly storm motion may allow some of these showers and thunderstorms to stream into the Susitna Valley. Southwest Alaska will have a large low in the Bering slowly make its way eastward. Heavy rainfall will impact the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula with the mainland coast seeing rain by Saturday. The low will stall out just off the Kuskokwim Delta coast and will continue to send fronts eastward, bringing heavy rain to the Southwest mainland for the rest of the weekend and into Monday. Southcentral will see some ridging build in on Saturday. This will result in a drying and warming trend for the region. The Copper River Basin, Talkeetna Mountains, and the Susitna Valley will retain chances for thunderstorms despite the ridge. This drying trend will not last too long as a front from the low in the Bering will arrive on Saturday. Heavy rainfall is expected first in Kodiak on Saturday afternoon, then at the Southcentral coastline. Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley may receive rainfall from this front as well if it orients correctly. This scenario is uncertain as model agreement is quite poor at this moment. Additional weaker fronts push into the Gulf into Monday with the potential for scattered rainfall. -JAR &&.AVIATION... PANC...MVFR ceiling should slowly lift through the morning hours with VFR conditions remaining after that. The southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds are expected to develop this afternoon and persist into the overnight hours before settling down some. These winds along with a change in the pattern over the region should help prevent the low level clouds from developing again. && $$