925
FXAK68 PAFC 170036
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 PM AKDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key messages:

* Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Anchorage Hillside /
  Eagle River with wind gusts 55 to 65 mph expected through 1AM
  tonight.

* Flood Watch is now in effect for the Susitna Valley for areas
  upstream of Lake Creek and Yentna Rivers through Wednesday
  afternoon. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches expected. Near the
  Parks Highway, from Willow through Talkeetna, 1 to 2 inches of
  rainfall expected.

Discussion:

A broad low pressure system traveling towards the Kuskokwim Delta
pushes several shortwaves northward up Cook Inlet into
Southcentral Alaska over the next couple of days. Gusty
southeasterly winds pick up this afternoon across the Anchorage
Hillside north to Eagle River, Turnagain Arm, eastern Kenai
Peninsula (especially noticeable along higher elevations), and
along the western and northern Prince William Sound. Additional
gap areas, including Knik Wind through Butte and Palmer, and the
Copper River wind will see elevated winds. Winds are expected to
persist through tonight, gradually diminishing through tomorrow
morning. The exception will be the southerly Copper River Wind
which will remain gusty through Tuesday afternoon.

Widespread persistent rainfall envelops much of Southcentral
Alaska this afternoon and tonight as shortwaves move through.
Chances for rainfall along Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula
dwindle by Monday afternoon as the low out west exits to the
north. Lingering shortwaves along the Southcentral Mainland will
keep rainfall chances higher through late Tuesday morning.

KM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Sunday through Wednesday afternoon)...

An upper-level low over Bristol Bay, with support from a 140 knot
jetstreak just south of the AKPen, continues northward over the
Southwest mainland this afternoon. Several shortwaves rotating
around the circulation will bring widespread rain through mid-
week. Expected totals range from 0.75 to 1.0 inches of rain by
Wednesday morning.

Gusty southwesterly surface winds will spread across most of
Bristol Bay before diminishing late Monday night. Lower
temperatures accompanying the system will initiate a cooling trend
back down to seasonal averages.

Meanwhile, unsettled conditions continue across the Aleutian
chain as the upper level trough elongates out to the Rat Islands,
to include a southeastward moving low in the western Bering. By
Monday morning, this low will reach Adak and begin tracking
eastward along the island chain. Additional rain totals of 0.25 to
0.75 inches accompany this feature as it reaches AKPen/Bristol
Bay Wednesday morning and Southwest mainland by Wednesday
afternoon.


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The long-term period starts with an upper-level low situated over
Bristol Bay and a surface low over the Alaska Peninsula or
extreme western Gulf of Alaska. These features will bring rain
across the Southern Mainland through Thursday.

A stronger and potentially more impactful storm for Friday and
the weekend across the Southern Mainland begins to take shape
upstream in Kamchatka Thursday. A strong shortwave digs south from
Siberia to the northern Bering Sea by Friday morning. A gale-
force surface low Will move into the northern Bering around St.
Matthew Island to St. Lawrence Island by Friday morning. Moderate
to heavy rain is likely to overspread the Southern Mainland,
starting first with Southwest on Friday, and working east to
Southcentral through Saturday. Showers continue across the
Southern Mainland on Sunday as the low works farther into Western
Alaska.

Trends with this system, deviations in track and strength, will
have to be watched closely when it comes to determining coastal
impacts along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. Taking a quick look at
ensemble data, the GFS and Canadian ensemble suites are more
in line with each other with a slower and stronger solution. The
European ensemble guidance is a little faster with the storm track
which has the system moving inland of Western Alaska by Friday;
this solution also features a weak system. Regardless, there will
be a push of on-shore flow with this system, it will be a matter
of its magnitude which will be ironed out in due time.

Farther out west, embedded shortwaves moving from west to east
atop a strong North Pacific ridge will keep the Aleutian Chain
showery at times for Thursday. The northern Bering low`s front
will also sweep across the Chain for Friday and make it to the
Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) for Friday night into Saturday. The
southern AKPEN will see the wettest conditions with this front
Friday night into Saturday as it only grazes the Aleutian Chain
Friday. The AKPEN will remain showery for Saturday and Sunday as
flow turns northerly behind the northern Bering low which is
moving inland by then. A surface ridge works in across the Central
and Eastern Aleutians Saturday and Sunday as shortwave and
another round of showers approaches the Western Aleutians from the
North Pacific.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Low level wind shear is the main challenge for this TAF
period as surface winds shift direction and strength throughout
the day. Southeast Turnagain Arm wind gusts of 30 to 35 kts
will continue through Monday, but the strongest period will be
during the overnight hours tonight. VFR is expected, however,
periods of rainfall could lower ceilings into MVFR Monday morning.

&&

$$