374
FXAK68 PAFC 110140
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 PM AKDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

Synoptically, an upper level low in the Gulf moves east through
this evening as a ridge builds in the eastern Bering. A secondary
trough digs south into the northern Susitna Valley through
tomorrow before slowly lifting back north through the end of the
week.

Weak synoptic lift from the secondary trough, combined with
diurnal heating has resulted in the development of scattered rain
showers along the Kenai, Chugach, and Talkeetna Mountains, as
well as in the Copper River Basin. Through 4:00 PM, the strongest
showers have produced up to 0.25 inches of rain. The development
of these scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
throughout the evening. With weak synoptic support, training
showers and thunderstorms are not expected. Late this evening,
showers will dissipate from surface cooling.

Continued steep low-level lapse rates and weak synoptic lift will
be in place over the Susitna and Copper River Valleys. This will
result in a 60% to 80% chance of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms most prevalent over the Susitna and Copper River
Valleys. Elsewhere in Southcentral, a 40% to 60% chance of
afternoon showers continues. A 30% chance of isolated showers
developing in the Lower Mat-Su and Kenai Mountains is expected
Thursday with drying conditions expected in these regions to end
the work week.

Meanwhile, a strong frontal boundary and deep moisture tap will
begin to lift north into the Gulf by Friday evening. This system
will have the potential to produce significant rainfall across
portions of Southcentral later this weekend.

- PA/DJ

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday afternoon)...

Generally, foggy/cloudy over much of the Bering Sea, Aleutian
Islands, Alaska Peninsula, and coastal Southwest Alaska through
about Friday morning. In interior Southwest Alaska, generally warm
and dry, though parts of this region will see scattered rain
showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms tomorrow and Friday
afternoons. From Friday into Saturday, increasingly stormy for
Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska as a somewhat unseasonable
gale-force front and its low move in from the North Pacific.
Overall weather looks unsettled but not particularly hazardous.

Diving into the details... the forecast remains on track, with the
big picture remaining largely unchanged. The main story in the
near-term continues to be a ridge of high pressure that will
linger in the Bering Sea through the first half of Friday, after
which a strong North Pacific low will displace it north and
westwards. Subsidence under the ridge is bringing widespread
overcast skies to all but interior Southwest Alaska, with periods
of low stratus and dense fog. Few changes were made to the fog
forecast, though fog coverage was increased inland as onshore flow
will bring in more moisture tonight. Fog chances look to diminish
as early as Friday afternoon, as the incoming North Pacific low
disrupts subsidence under the ridge.

The thunderstorm forecast looks mainly on track too. As with the
previous discussions, while there is a slight chance of
thunderstorms, a continued signal for weak upper level forcing
suggests that any thunderstorms that form likely won`t be very
strong. This is particularly true for any thunderstorms that
develop tomorrow afternoon; given weak flow aloft, storms will
likely develop and then rain themselves out, as there isn`t robust
enough steering flow to allow these storms to further organize.
The bigger question will be convective potential Saturday
afternoon. The current track of Friday/Saturday`s North Pacific
low suggests that the low will not move north of the Alaska
Peninsula. As such, precipitation and cloud cover will likely
remain out of Kuskokwim Delta and Valley, which means temperatures
could stay warm enough to lead to a third day of convection and
thunderstorm potential. While confidence is lower in that
particular aspect of the forecast, confidence is quite high that
the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula (including marine areas)
will see sustained gale-force winds and steady light to moderate
rain as we head into the weekend.

-KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through
Wednesday)...

Showers are expected for Southwest Alaska and the eastern
Aleutians through Tuesday from a Gulf low. An upper level ridge
over the eastern Gulf will remain nearly stationary before moving
eastward by Monday. These two systems are important to note as it
blocks an originating Pacific Low from going into the eastern
Gulf. The combination of the anticyclonic flow aloft from the
ridge and cyclonic flow from the low pressure system will enhance
southerly flow ushering in warm and moist air into the northern
and western Gulf coast. This is expected to bring precipitation to
Southcentral Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and Kodiak Island.
There is high confidence that there will be periods of heavy rain
for Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound Saturday
into Sunday. Lingering showers are possible Monday through Tuesday
as the southerly enhanced flow shuts off. A weak upper level low
over Kamchatka will move over the Aleutians Tuesday through
Wednesday, generating showers.


-SS

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Scattered showers will remain mostly tied to the Chugach mountains
with low chances of a shower making it over the terminal. Showers
will dissipate this evening with decreasing diurnal heating. The
Turnagain Arm wind will increase this evening...bending into the
terminal at times with gusts up to 25 kt.

&&


$$