157
FXAK68 PAFC 101404
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
604 AM AKDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

A stout upper level ridge continues to build into Southcentral
from the west this morning. Mid to upper cloud cover is spilling
across the Alaska Range into the region along and ahead of a warm
front lifting northeast into the Interior. This cloud cover has
helped prevent temperatures from dropping below the 40s for most
places, but clearer patches across parts of the Copper Basin have
allowed temperatures to dip down into the 30s in some areas.
Offshore gap winds are continuing to affect much of the Gulf
coast, including in and near Whittier, Seward and Kodiak. Expect
these winds to drop out quickly later this afternoon and evening
as prevailing northwest winds aloft weaken and become more
westerly. Even so, we will still get one more very warm afternoon
in many places along the coast while offshore winds continue, with
highs in places like Seward and Kodiak potentially hitting 70
today. Chilly overnight lows in the 30s to 40s will be possible
again tonight as clearing skies combine with calm winds to allow
for effective radiational cooling after dark.

Overall, expect very little change to conditions for Friday. The
ridge off to our west will begin to flatten out as it shifts east
towards the eastern Gulf and Panhandle and as a slow-moving cold
front sags south across the Interior and Southwest. Cloud cover
will increase once again as the front approaches from the
northwest, but rainfall potential will hold off until later in the
weekend.

By Saturday, the front will cross over the Alaska Range into
Southcentral and begin to lose definition as it encounters higher
terrain. Flow will become southwesterly ahead of the front as it
sinks southward throughout the day. A belt of moisture coming in
ahead of the boundary will likely be enough to support areas of
rain as the front brushes past, mainly for areas that will see
upslope enhancement along much of the Talkeetnas, northern Alaska
Range and northwestern Chugach Range. There is still some
uncertainty in terms of any potential for rainfall at lower
elevations near the mountains. For now, expect about a 30-50%
chance of measurable rainfall across much of the Mat Copper Basin,
Mat Valley and Anchorage area as the front approaches, mainly
during the morning hours on Saturday.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This morning through Saturday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

* A strong front moves across the Bering Sea and Aleutians through
  the end of the week, impacting Kuskokwim Delta starting today.
  It weakens as it moves across the rest of Southwest Alaska and
  the Alaska Peninsula from Friday into Saturday.

* Elevated water levels are expected along the Kuskokwim River and
  Kuskokwim Delta coast today and Friday. High river levels
  combined with storm surge may produce cause water levels to rise
  between bankfull and Minor flood stage along the Kuskokwim and
  Johnson Rivers. For the Kuskokwim Delta coast, current forecast
  is for elevated water levels with little to no impacts, and
  flooding unlikely.

* Otherwise, generally warm and humid under the influence of a
  ridge near the Alaska Peninsula and the influx of a warmer and
  moister air mass.


Discussion:

Currently, a stout upper level ridge is in place over the eastern
Bering, Aleutians, and Southwest Alaska. Underneath, patches of
fog and areas of low stratus are seen across the region. A
shortwave moving through the periphery of the ridge is bringing
some light showers across the Kuskokwim Valley from Aniak eastward
this morning. Otherwise, the weather is mostly benign. To the
west, a strong front is located in the far western Bering and
Aleutians. This front is accompanied by southerly gale-force winds
and moderate to heavy rain.

The ridge remains rather stout across Southwest Alaska today
while the Bering front presses slowly eastward. Guidance continues
to favor the ridge resisting the eastward progression of the
front, keeping the strongest winds primarily across the western
and central Bering. Nevertheless, periods of small-craft to gale-
force winds and rain will accompany the front as it advances
across the Aleutians and Bering toward the Pribilof Islands.
Underneath the ridge, some areas of stratus and low fog will
persist across the eastern Bering into Southwest and the Alaska
Peninsula (AKPen). Otherwise the weather continues to be benign.

Beginning tonight, the upper ridge begins to shift east as the
front continues through the eastern Bering into the Southwest
Coast. Southerly to southwesterly winds increase along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast, with rain spreading into western portions
of Southwest Alaska. The combination of high water moving down the
Kuskokwim River and storm surge moving upriver could result in
bankfull conditions or minor flooding near Tuntutuliak and upriver
towards Bethel during high tide on Friday. Along the Kuskokwim
Delta coast, strong onshore winds could also result in some
coastal erosion and minor coastal flooding from Kongiganak
northward through Toksook Bay and Tununak. A Hydrologic Outlook
has been issued for these concerns. Bristol Bay and interior
Southwest likely won`t see rain until at least Friday afternoon.
With less clouds and southerly winds downsloping off the
mountains, high temperatures will be around 60 for many locations
around Bristol Bay down through the AKPen, with some mid-60s
possible around Pilot Point and Port Heiden. Though the front
continues to weaken as it progresses eastward, upper level support
from shortwaves will allow showers to persist through Friday
night for much of Southwest and the AKPen, with activity slowly
tapering off from west to east.

The front crosses the Alaska Range and moves into Southcentral by
Saturday morning, leaving a mostly zonal-flow regime in its wake.
Temperatures on Saturday look to be mostly near average. Some
isolated showers will linger through the day, with more scattered
showers along the Alaska Range down through the AKPen due to
upsloping winds. Any upper level support with shortwaves will also
maintain lingering showers, though precise timing of shortwaves
is currently unclear. To the west, a weak system looks to moves
from the North Pacific to the Central Aleutians on Saturday. This
likely brings additional rain for the central and eastern
Aleutians beginning Saturday morning.

- PA


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The low pressure system that is set to bring widespread gusty
winds and rainfall across western Alaska this week will continue
in its eastward track into the Beaufort Sea through this weekend.
Its associated frontal system significantly weakens as it moves
inland across interior Southwest Alaska with the strong upper
ridge and drier conditions lingering across the Gulf and
Southcentral for Saturday.

Despite the weaker, more zonal flow, the pattern remains active
through the weekend as an additional shortwave in the Bering
quickly moves inland and across Southern Alaska. Despite models
varying on the exact strength and timing, this system is generally
expected to bring the next round of rainfall across the
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest Alaska Saturday. This
system quickly shifts east and brings the potential for rainfall
across much of Southcentral by late Saturday into Sunday.

Despite increasing model spread heading into next week,
confidence continues to increase for the pattern to once again
become more amplified by the end of the weekend into early next
week. The next shortwave emerges off of Kamchatka and enters the
western Bering where it is expected to interact and phase with
energy lifting north out of the Pacific. As a result, the next
round of potentially strong southerly winds and heavy rainfall
will be possible across the Aleutian Chain beginning Sunday
through the early part of next week as a strengthening low moves
into the southern Bering. Meanwhile, the upper ridge centered over
the North Pacific and southern Gulf strengthens across the
southern Mainland through early next week, bringing a period of
drier weather.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.


&&


$$