708
FXAK68 PAFC 130253
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
553 PM AKST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday morning)...

Dry conditions and below normal temperatures revisit Southcentral
this afternoon, however, an inbound shortwave trough from the
west brings increasing cloud cover which will inhibit the
development of fog and low stratus overnight. Should sky
conditions become clear, patchy freezing fog may still be
possible. Cloud cover will also keep low temperatures 5 to 8
degrees above Tuesday night`s lows.

Thursday will see increased clouds, but otherwise very similar
conditions to Wednesday for most of Southcentral. Precipitation
should remain limited to Prince William Sound and the north Gulf
coast and diminish through the afternoon.

Friday afternoon a low in the Bering pushes into the Gulf with
widespread small-craft and areas of gale force winds across the
entrance to Cook Inlet and through Shelikof Strait. Models are
projecting the formation of a triple point low along the trough
near Kodiak Island. Consensus varies on timing and position of
where that takes place, from just north to just south of the
island. Wind fields may change rapidly, but the general consensus
of rain and higher elevation snow for Kodiak and then coastal
Kenai Peninsula is likely to remain unchanged for Friday. By
saturday morning the low will have moved south of the Kenai
Peninsula, with little to no precipitation reaching the western
Kenai and Anchorage.



&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Light snow continues this afternoon for the northern Alaska
Peninsula, Bristol Bay, and Kuskokwim Delta along the decaying
frontal boundary which stalled along the coast today as it reached
the Mainland. Any remaining snow showers are expected to continue
to diminish through this evening with additional accumulation up
to one inch. Elsewhere, relatively quiet weather persists this
evening as the Bering experiences a lull between weather systems.

By Thursday morning, a gale-force low lifts towards the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. As the system reaches the southern
Bering, a negatively tilting upper level trough pushing east
across the Bering helps to strengthen this system as it takes on a
more complex structure. Models have come into better agreement on
the track of the low through Thursday afternoon, but the biggest
forecast challenge continues to be how far north the low
progresses in the southern Bering and the timing of the strongest
winds affecting the Aleutian Chain. By Thursday afternoon, winds
ranging from small-craft to gale strength are expected to pick up
across much of the Aleutian Chain and Alaska Peninsula. Winds are
expected to peak Friday morning through Friday evening as the low
begins to pivots east towards the Gulf. Widespread westerly gales
are expected across the Central and Eastern Aleutians Friday, with
westerly storm force gusts possible roughly from Atka to Unalaska
through Friday afternoon.

Heading into the weekend, the next low and potentially gale force
front tracks across the western Aleutians and Bering Sea through
Saturday morning. Shortly after, this system begins to interact
and phase with a much stronger North Pacific low as it lifts
across the Aleutians and into the Southern Bering Saturday into
Sunday with the potential for the storm to deepen to a sub-950 mb
low. There are a lot of details to iron out with this system and
any impacts related to the storm will be highly dependent on storm
track, in which confidence remains low at this time. Please stay
tuned and monitor the forecast for this upcoming system.

-JH/AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

For Southcentral, the long term forecast reflects the eastward
displacement of the persistent Gulf of Alaska trough into Canada
by early monday morning, allowing a ridge of high pressure to
ridge into the region. This will bring cooing temperatures across
Southcentral through mid-week.

The larger weather concerns are for Pribilofs, Southwest Alaska
and Aleutian Islands. A deepening North Pacific low, embedded with
a broad upper level Bering trough will lift northwestward from
the Central Aleutians, delivering gale-to-storm force winds and
heavy precipitation across the southern Bering Sea, including the
Pribilofs before before weakening early in the week. A second
North Pacific low pressure system is forecasted to cross over the
Aleutians late Monday and into Tuesday. This will bring sustained
southerly to southwesterly flow and elevating precipitation
probabilities across Southwest Alaska. The exact path of the
system is somewhat uncertain as there is very little agreement
between the major global models. A frontal boundary advancing
onshore Tuesday and into Wednesday will reinforce above-normal
temperatures and precipitation with the potential for coastal
rainfall and inland mixed precipitation in the elevated terrain.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Areas of fog and low stratus have persisted across the
northern Cook Inlet just off to the northwest of Anchorage
overnight. There will continue to be a threat for intermittent
periods of IFR conditions or lower if any of stratus/fog manages
to drift southeast into the terminal, especially this morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

-AS

&&


$$