580
FXAK68 PAFC 110130
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
430 PM AKST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Gusty winds will continue through the extended forecast. The
  current round of winds will continue through Thu morning. Winds
  diminish for a brief period between Thu night through Fri
  morning. Winds increase again Fri night in Valdez, the Matanuska
  Valley, and the waters around Kodiak Island with lower
  confidence with how long those winds will remain elevated.

- Cold temperatures and wind chills are expected to persist until
  at least the end of this week. A Cold Weather Advisory is
  currently in effect through Fri afternoon for the Copper River
  Basin and through the Thompson Pass area.

- You can reduce your risk of hypothermia or frost bite by
  protecting your skin from exposure and wearing appropriate
  clothing while outdoors. Keep emergency supplies with you in
  your home and while traveling whenever possible. Consider
  wearing your cold weather gear while you are driving longer
  distances through frigid temperatures. Know the signs of
  hypothermia and check on others.

Discussion:

The forecast is characterized by a couple of key words: cold and
windy. An upper trough is currently passing through Southcentral
Alaska. This is allowing for gusty winds in gap areas including
Valdez, the waters around Kodiak Island, and the Matanuska Valley
near Palmer. However, due to the weaker nature of the trough,
these winds are not nearly as strong nor will they be as lengthy
as the prior event. Due to lighter winds and the presence of an
Arctic air mass, temperatures are dropping to the single digits
and negatives for inland areas. The Copper River Basin in
particular, is very cold with temperatures dropping to 40 to 50
below zero in some areas. As the trough moves out of the area to
the south, winds will gradually decrease by Thursday, becoming
mostly calm in the afternoon.

Friday morning continues the relatively calm, but very cold
conditions. However, by Friday afternoon, a strong upper trough
drops into Southcentral. The first effect of this trough is gusty
winds in Whittier and Seward, reaching over 40 mph through
Saturday. Then, gusty winds will return to the Matanuska Valley
and Valdez. The current thinking is that Valdez will have the
worst of the winds with gusts up to 50 to 60 mph by Saturday. The
Matanuska Valley will also see gusty winds, but these will likely
not be as severe nor as long lasting as the winds from last
weekend with gusts from 50 to 60 mph are expected. However, the
situation is still developing and could change on a dime. Another
round of cold air also arrives on Saturday. This air mass seems to
be colder than the previous one, so temperatures for next week
could be very cold. Another impact of this second round of Arctic
air is a larger temperature gradient between the ocean and land.
This means that gap winds especially in Valdez could linger on for
a longer period. The forecast could still change and conditions
could either look better or worse depending on the track of the
upper trough, so continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

JAR/Rux

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Conditions across Southwest Alaska and much of the Bering
Sea/Aleutians remains unchanged over the next few days. There
will be some warmer air moving over the Mainland Thursday
night/Friday, raising temperatures to mid 20`s along the Kuskokwim
Delta and western Bristol Bay on Friday. The warming will be very
brief as the air mass passes through quickly and cold air filters
back in from the northeast to drop temperatures again over the
weekend. Mostly dry conditions will continue, the exception will
be inland Kuskokwim Delta and lower Kuskokwim Valley, as well as
along the Kilbuck/Kuskokwim Mountain ranges. Snow is expected
along the aforementioned areas Thursday night/Friday morning as a
shortwave skirts through. No significant snow accumulations are
expected. Gusty gap winds will continue south of the Alaska
Peninsula through tonight as cold air and a tighter pressure
gradient stays in place. Winds are expected to start letting up
Thursday afternoon with some warmer air moving in. Winds may pick
up again Friday night/Saturday once cold air returns. Further
west, a front moves over the Western Aleutians, bringing rounds of
gale force winds and rain Thursday night and Friday. The front
will not progress further eastwards due to high pressure holding
steady over the Bering Sea.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

This weekend, an expansive area of high pressure will be centered
over the northern Bering Sea and extend across the rest of the
Bering Sea. This high pressure will aid in pulling Arctic Air
south across the state, causing a trough to dig across the
southern mainland and around a low in the Gulf of Alaska. This
will create the potential for another round of prolonged high
winds through gaps and passes, cold temperatures, and wind
chills. A shortwave low will descend from eastern Russia Monday
afternoon, but remain offshore until it crosses the Alaska
Peninsula by Tuesday morning. A complex surface low in the Gulf of
Alaska could retrograde just enough early next week to bring some
light snow to the north Gulf coast and parts of the Copper River
Basin, but forecast confidence is still low. Otherwise, dry
conditions continue region-wide, which could persist for the next
several weeks as this general pattern of cold, dry weather looks
to stick around.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Northerly winds are expected
to increase to 10 to 15 kt this evening through mid-day tomorrow
before decreasing tomorrow night.

&&


$$