872
FXAK68 PAFC 091336
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
536 AM AKDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Warm weather has prevailed overnight across Southcentral Alaska
due to the influence of a strong upper-level ridge axis. This
ridge has gradually shifted east over past 24 hours such that the
axis is now across SE Alaska. A diffuse cold front is currently
shifting east across the area, with  focused along/south of the
AK range. The handle of observations across the Denali Hwy
Corridor from about Broad Pass to Isabel Pass show temperatures in
the mid 30s with precipitation, suggesting that precip type is
likely rain or rain/snow at this time. Continued modest cold air
advection through the morning will likely lead to a transition to
all snow for those higher elevation areas at the foot of the AK
range.

As we progress through the day, an upper-level trough will dig
across Southcentral AK. Precipitation will expand once again along
the diffuse cold front boundary, with high confidence in precip
across the eastern half of the Copper River Basin and into the
eastern Chugach and Wrangells. Instability on the back end of this
low in conjunction with lingering moisture may result in some
showers from the northern Kenai into Anchorage and the Mat-Su
today... and thus have increased PoPs for the afternoon/evening
period. Showers are to be isolated/scattered and likely quick in
nature. The majority of this area will remain dry for most of the
day.

Surface low pressure will develop in the northern Gulf of Alaska
today. With heights building across the interior and SC, this
will result in the outflow gap winds in all the usual places into
the Prince William Sound and Gulf.

Cooler air on the back side of the trough will bring temps back
closer to climatological norms for this time of year, after
several days of temps 5-10 degrees above average.

Cooler, benign, and generally pleasant October weather is
expected on Friday into early Saturday before the next warm front
starts pushing into Kodiak Island Saturday and the rest of
Southcentral Sat night into Sunday.

-Brown

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday night)...

Key messages:

 - Another strong frontal system associated with a Kamchatka low
   will cross the Bering Sea and Aleutians Thursday to Friday.

 - The front will weaken quickly as it reaches the Southwest
   coastline Friday night. Minor storm surge and coastal erosion
   is possible for the Kuskokwim Delta as the front arrives.

 - The extratropical remnants of Typhoon Halong are expected to
   curve north into the Bering Sea beginning Saturday. This is
   likely to become a hurricane force low as it tracks into the
   northern Bering Sea.

 - The remnants of Halong are likely to bring strong winds to the
   Pribilof Islands along with another round of coastal flooding
   to the Kuskokwim Delta coast.

Discussion:

High pressure building north into the Bering Sea and Southwest
Alaska is contributing to a period of relatively quiet conditions
this morning along with mostly clear skies. The stable
conditions combined with radiative cooling have allowed a layer
of stratus and associated fog to spread across portions of
interior Bristol Bay, which is anticipated to mix out later this
morning. Aloft, cooler air and a broad trough are promoting
isolated to scattered rain showers across the northern Bering Sea
which are flowing into the Kuskokwim Delta region in the wake of
a weakening low along the North Slope.

Out west, a Kamchatka low is pushing a storm force front into the
western Aleutians. Wind gusts of 70 to 75 mph are likely across
the Near Islands late this morning as the strongest southeasterly
winds push though. The strong front sweeps across the
Aleutians/Bering Sea, initially producing moderate to heavy rain
through the western Aleutians, but with decreased precipitation
intensity as it shifts east. Winds along the front diminish to
gale force by the time the front reaches the central/eastern
Aleutians and the Pribilof Islands tonight through Friday morning.
The front steadily weakens as it continues to the Southwest
coast, where southeasterly winds gusting up to 40 to 50 mph reach
into parts of the Kuskokwim Delta Friday night before the front
rapidly weakens as it lifts inland. The overall threat for coastal
flooding with this storm system is lower compared to the system
that moved through yesterday morning, though the filling of low
lying areas/dry lakes and coastal erosion will still be possible
on Friday night, particularly for the communities of Kwigillingok
and Kongiganak.

On Saturday, the remnants of Typhoon Halong are drawn into the
Bering Sea by the large, decaying Kamchatka low. This system looks
to rapidly deepen as it crosses the Aleutians and tracks into the
northern Bering Sea for Saturday night, bringing hurricane force
winds to portions of the central and northern Bering Sea. While
there are still some uncertainties in the track and timing of the
low, increased model agreement lends confidence to a high
likelihood of strong winds for the Pribilof Islands on Saturday,
with wind gusts potentially in excess of 75 mph. This wind threat
continues north with the low into Sunday, with the strongest winds
clipping Nunivak Island and the far northwestern portions of the
Kuskokwim Delta coast, though there is less confidence in the
strength of the winds there at this time. The strong southerly
winds will lead to 20 to 35 ft seas, or higher, and will induce
high water levels along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Though there is
still significant uncertainty in the exact extent of coastal
flooding, maximum water levels are most likely to be within 1
foot of the previous event (yesterday morning).

Quesada

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Southcentral Alaska will initially see a ridge in the Gulf of
Alaska. Shortwaves from a strong low in the west will take
advantage of a long fetch of moisture from the south. Widespread
rainfall from Kodiak Island to the coast, and even the inner
areas of Southcentral including Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valley,
Western Kenai, and later the Copper River Basin is likely. A
strong front moves in on Monday and reinforces rain chances Monday
morning. The front will also allow for a possible barrier jet
along the coast south of Cordova. Gap winds in the Barrier Island
region are also likely. A weak ridge moves in Monday evening
through Tuesday, which decreases rain chances and wind speeds for
a time. Wednesday is more uncertain, but a front followed by
troughing is possible, which would increase rain chances yet again
as well as wind speeds. Strong winds moving into Prince William
Sound and potentially into Anchorage are possible, but much
uncertainly in this scenario remains.

Southwest Alaska is where most of the action is for this extended
period. Sunday starts off with a powerful low associated with the
remnants of Typhoon Halong moving up the Bering. Confidence has
increased with its strength but uncertainty about its track
remains. The low center is expected to track west of the Pribilof
Islands, staying west of Nunivak Island, and eventually
continuing north to the Chukotka region of Russia, or the Bering
Strait, or even as far east as the Seward Peninsula. A further
east track in the Bering with the center moving closer to Nunivak
Island, however, cannot be ruled out at the moment. If the
eastward track wins out, storm force winds could impact the
Kuskokwim Delta coast, which would cause coastal flooding issues.
However, as of now (2:00 PM 10/8), the westward track is favored
and flooding impacts would be minimal with this solution due to
lower wind speeds and storm surge. The low is expected to quickly
move north, which could limit more serious impacts due to a
lesser duration of the strongest winds in one area. Still, the
situation is evolving and the track of the low will be better
understood in the near future. Whichever solution is correct,
heavy rain and storm force winds are expected in the Pribilof
Islands and the Bering waters.

Monday has a break in active weather as weak ridging builds in
after the powerful low moves out. Lower wind speeds and less rain
chances result from this. Tuesday and Wednesday have more action
as a potentially strong low moves into the Bering. The track and
strength of this low are very uncertain due to a large spread in
model runs. Some kind of gusty winds and rainfall are expected
somewhere in the Aleutians regardless of the real track. Wednesday
looks to see some zonal-like flow as the features move eastward
and dissipate. This would mean lower wind speeds and less
rainfall.

-JAR


&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will most likely prevail through the TAF
period. Southerly winds will continue to decrease throughout the
morning, though there could be a few gusts up to 15-20 kts through
0z. Winds may be shift to northwesterly for a short period this
afternoon before becoming light and southerly once again this
evening. A few isolated sprinkles/showers could move across the
terminal this afternoon, though confidence is lower than average.
Much of the guidance that does show any precipitation has it
moving away from the area by 6z Friday.

-AM

&&


$$