596
FXAK68 PAFC 020052
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

A weakening gale force low is centered over the north-central
Gulf of Alaska this evening, continuing to produce rain shower
activity across portions of the marine areas. To the north of the
low, over Southcentral, a shortwave ridge extends east from
Canada, leading to dry conditions and clearing skies. Tonight,
there is some potential for patchy fog development across the Cook
Inlet region as low-levels remain moist and the atmosphere dries
out aloft. Further east, the Gulf low slowly pushes to the coast
and moves inland near Cape Suckling Sunday morning. The dynamic
upper-level component of the low lifts across the Copper River
Basin through Sunday, which should be able to overcome
downsloping across the Chugach Mountains and drop a few inches of
snow across southern portions of the basin along the Edgerton
Highway and McCarthy Road.

Heading into Sunday night, a broad shortwave trough aloft will
lift across Southcentral as the trough axis aloft reorients over
Western Alaska. This could provide enough lift to produce some
light showers for the Cook Inlet region. Temperatures will be
cooling with the light southerly flow as cold air streaming across
the Bering Sea wraps back north around the trough axis, meaning
that temperatures will cool across Southcentral heading into next
week. As a result, these showers will be increasingly likely to be
in the form of snow and bring some light accumulations to parts
of the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat- Su Valleys into
Monday.

Beyond that point, weak warm advection and moist air flowing off
the Gulf into Southcentral will combine with a digging upper-low
over Southwest Alaska to provide a more focused band of snowfall.
There is low confidence in the placement of this feature at this
time, but depending on where it sets up and how quickly or slowly
it moves, some location in the vicinity of Cook Inlet could see
training snow showers bring multiple inches of snow. At this
point, this looks most likely to set up over the Kenai Peninsula
Monday into Tuesday, but this is subject to change.

Quesada

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

The strong and persistent northeasterly winds that have plagued
the west coast of Alaska and Alaska Peninsula (AKPen) for the last
week will finally begin to slowly weaken through early next week
as a Gulf Low dissipates near Prince William Sound. Until then,
convective rain/snow mix showers will continue to stream down
across the eastern Bering Sea and into Alaska Peninsula. A weak
low over western Interior will provide enough support for snow
showers to be move over the Kuskokwim Delta and Interior Kuskokwim
River Valley tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain cold
enough for precipitation to fall as snow, but a relatively dry
atmosphere will keep any accumulation light. Weak high pressure
moving across the Aleutian Chain will push into mainland Southwest
by Sunday night, helping diminish winds and keep the region
generally dry.

Farther west, a series of low pressure systems will impact the
Western and Central Aleutians with rain and periods of gale force
winds through Tuesday night. These storm tracks will ride the
upper level jet, forcing them to dive south across the Aleutian
Chain and into the North Pacific just west of Unalaska.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Areas of precipitation persist across Southwest as a remnant low
dissipates northward across the western part of the state Wednesday.
A low in the northern Gulf pushes into Southcentral Thursday
afternoon, while an upper level trough extends from a low over the
Bering Strait and south across the Alaska Peninsula. Interaction
between these features over Southcentral could create a snow
producing deformation across the region.


Looking to the western Bering on Friday, models are still
producing a variety of solutions with a low approaching the
Aleutian chain Saturday morning, but within the realm of possible
outcomes is a 955 mb low pressure system producing widespread
gales and areas of storm force winds late Saturday into Sunday.
The GFS keeps this system on the Pacific side of the Aleutians as
it transitions into the Gulf, while the ECMWF and GEM bring it
into the Bering.



&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to persist.
There is a small chance for some fog development after midnight
tonight if there are sufficient breaks in the cloud cover
overnight.

&&


$$