691
FXAK68 PAFC 221311
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
511 AM AKDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

The weakening low pressure system that brought us the showery and
cool conditions for the past couple of days is finally making an
exit into the northern Panhandle and southern Yukon this morning.
Conditions by and large have dried out in the wake of this low
overnight as a shortwave ridge moves overhead, but this break in
the wet conditions will be cut short. A new plume of moisture and
higher clouds is beginning to encroach on the region from the west
ahead of a digging shortwave trough currently moving over
Southwest. Radar returns are already starting to creep northeast
up the Cook Inlet, while Kodiak Island is already getting into
steadier rainfall with the new system arriving. Steady rain will
continue to expand north and east towards the Mat-Su Valleys and
across the Kenai Peninsula as the day progresses, but most of the
Copper Basin will stay dry today.

There are very few changes to the forecast expectations to
discuss through the end of the weekend and into the start of next
week. As the upper level trough skirts southeast towards the Gulf,
it will close off in the upper levels while a new low forms
underneath it across the western Gulf by this afternoon and
evening. Weak southerly gap winds that could affect parts of the
Copper River Valley, Turnagain ARm and Knik Valley today will shut
off abruptly as the new low develops and begins to reverse the
south-north pressure gradient currently in place out ahead of this
incoming system. Gusty north to northwest winds up to Small Craft
range will develop northwest of the low center across the western
Gulf and close to Kodiak Island late tonight into Sunday morning,
with weaker offshore gap winds also briefly picking up through
Resurrection Bay and Passage Canal for Sunday morning.

As the low continues to pull away from Southcentral into the
southeastern Gulf, expect things to dry out and even clear up
rather quickly between Sunday morning and Sunday evening. Some
patchy fog could still form near the Cook Inlet and Anchorage
vicinity during the morning hours, but expect any fog to mix out
by the afternoon. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer on Sunday
afternoon as well, reaching the low to mid 60s across lower
elevations as a ridge of high pressure builds to the west and
expands into Southcentral through early Monday. Monday also is
shaping up to be a fairly warm and pleasant day, but expect some
increasing high clouds coming in from the west by the late
afternoon and evening ahead of a large low pressure system moving
into Western Alaska. The stretch of pleasant weather doesn`t look
likely to last much later into the week, so take advantage of it
while you can!

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Radar and satellite imagery this morning show the heaviest
rainfall associated with the front that brought steady rain
overnight across Southwest Alaska progressing east into Bristol
Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley. Behind the front, rain has tapered
to showers across the Kuskokwim Delta as gusty northwesterly winds
build up through this morning over Nunivak Island, The Kuskokwim
Delta, and the eastern Bering. Rain will dissipate from west to
east across interior Southwest through tonight as the upper level
trough digs south across western Alaska, eventually forming a
closed upper low in the western Gulf by Sunday morning. High
pressure building in across the Bering behind this system
throughout today will help to enhance northwesterly gap winds
through favored gaps and passes on the Pacific side of the
northern Alaska Peninsula this afternoon through tonight.

The patterns continues to remain progressive as attention then
shifts farther upstream in the western Bering. By tonight through
Sunday morning, the next round of shortwaves moving east out of
Kamchatka and lifting out of the North Pacific interact and phase
together, allowing for a surface low to become better organized
and strengthen as it tracks northeastward across the Bering for
Sunday. As the system develops today, a warm and unstable airmass
brings a small chance (10 to 20%) for a few lightning strikes to
accompany showers moving over the western Aleutians through early
this afternoon.

As the surface low and associated upper-level circulation become
better organized and strengthens on Sunday across the western
Bering, Southwest Alaska will get a short break in the weather as
the ridge pushes east. Meanwhile, south to southwesterly small-
craft winds pick up across much of the Bering and Aleutians with a
small swath of gale-force winds expected across the northern
Bering and St. Matthew Island. Light to moderate rainfall pushing
east across the Bering reaches the Pribilof Islands Sunday morning
before reaching the Southwest coast by Sunday evening. Steady
rain continues across all of Southwest Alaska through Monday as a
stream of moisture from the North Pacific and a weak shortwave
rounding the base of the trough reinforces the front. Gusty
onshore winds begin to relax Monday morning as the low pull
farther away to the north.

The pattern continues to look active and progressive through
early next week as additional systems are expected to move into
the western Bering.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The pattern appears to remain active through the long-term period
over much of Southern Alaska. A relatively strong low pressure
system over the northern Bering Sea will exit to the northeast
into the Western Alaska mainland, but push a front through
Southwest and potentially Southcentral Alaska early next week. By
Tuesday, largely zonal flow establishes over much of the Bering
Sea, allowing for relatively less impactful conditions in the
area.

By Wednesday morning, model solutions continue to diverge, and
while both ECMWF and GFS advertise a low entering the southwestern
Bering Sea, the EC shows a stronger low moving in, bringing
stronger winds and precipitation core dragged in from the northern
Pacific. The GFS solution is much more muted, with a weak low
pressure system, loose pressure gradients, favoring weaker winds
and lighter precipitation across the Western Aleutians. GFS and EC
however are more progressive, bringing the low into the
northwestern Bering by Thursday morning, with the Canadian
solution lagging the low still in the southwest Bering, over the
Western Aleutians. By Friday, agreement improves between model
solutions, with fair agreement that the low moves into the
eastern Bering, with all solutions also bringing the low`s depth
more in- line, and the low center over the Kuskokwim
Delta/Mekoryuk Island.

-CL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Steady light rain is expected to move into the terminal
from the southwest later this morning, but ceiling are expected to
remain predominantly VFR even as rain begins. Still, expect a
lowering trend in ceilings as the day progresses, possibly
reaching MVFR at times during the afternoon and evening. There is
still some uncertainty regarding the wind forecast, with a
Turnagain Arm wind still expected to briefly reach the terminal
sometime later this morning into the mid afternoon. Any southeast
winds that do make it into the terminal are not expected to be
particularly strong, with only a few gusts to 20 kts or so
anticipated. Winds will become light and northerly later this
afternoon into tonight.

&&


$$