065
FXAK68 PAFC 231314
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
514 AM AKDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

An upper level trough moving across Southcentral has closed off
into an upper level low progressing across the Gulf this morning.
A small surface low has spun up over the central Gulf in tandem
with the upper level disturbance, and this is helping to enhance
northwest winds up to Small Craft range near and to the southeast
of Kodiak Island. The upper level pattern across Southcentral has
become more disorganized, but northerly flow is ever so slightly
starting to pick up as an upper ridge begins to encroach onto the
region from the west. Rain showers have mostly dissipated as the
upper support for lift shifts south with the low into the Gulf,
with some breaks in cloud cover even starting to form across the
Mat-Su Valleys. Patchy fog has developed in some of the spots
that have partially cleared up, particularly across the Susitna
Valley.

Looking to the forecast, things are still on track for a rather
pleasant afternoon across much of the region as drying offshore
flow continues to ramp up in between the high pressure ridge
building over Southwest and the low exiting to the south.
Lingering cloud cover and patchy fog will clear up by around
midday, allowing for a much warmer and sunnier afternoon compared
to what we`ve seen so far this weekend. Even spots such as Seward
and Whittier will enjoy warm temperatures reaching the mid 60s as
offshore winds mostly keep the sea breeze and any marine stratus
at bay. Monday is looking similarly mild overall as the upper
ridge shifts east into Southcentral, but cloud cover will begin to
increase as the day progresses, especially across the western
half of the region. This will mark the beginning of our next
potential rain-maker set to arrive later in the week.

By Monday night, a belt of moist, southwesterly flow moving out
ahead of a extensive frontal system progressing across the Bering
and western Mainland will extend into Southcentral as the ridge in
place begins to slump south and lose amplitude. Several weak
impulses riding with the strong southwesterlies will combine with
warm, moist advection to generate light, steady rainfall spreading
across the Kenai Peninsula and Mat-Su Valleys by late Monday
night. More widespread rain will spread across nearly all of
Southcentral on Tuesday as a potent, negatively-tilted shortwave
trough riding along the frontal zone arrives from Southwest and
produces deeper lift along the main moisture axis. As the trough
and front move inland over the Interior and Southwest, a strong
south-north pressure gradient will develop across Southcentral,
supporting strong and gusty gap winds out of the Copper River
Valley, Knik Valley and Turnagain Arm for much of the day on
Tuesday. In short, don`t expect the summery weather today and
tomorrow to last long!

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

The active and progressive pattern continues through early this
week as the next low and associated frontal system becomes better
organized today in the western Bering. Looking at the upper
levels, a compact and fast-moving shortwave that has lifted out of
the North Pacific into the Bering Sea phases with a larger upper
level trough emerging off Kamchatka today. Farther downstream, an
upper level ridge slides east from the eastern Bering over
Southwest Alaska, giving Southwest Alaska a period of drier
weather and light winds.

Satellite imagery this morning shows a mix of clear skies and
pockets of low stratus across Southwest Alaska as the
aforementioned ridge axis nudges east through this morning. As the
ridge pushes farther east, the last of the gusty northwesterly
winds through gaps and passes along the Alaska Peninsula dissipate
this morning as the pressure gradient relaxes. Dry conditions,
light winds, and periodic breaks in the clouds continue through
this evening across Southwest Alaska ahead of the arrival of the
next front.

Across the western Bering, a low end gale-force front becomes
better organized as its parent low continues to strengthen and
track northeastward toward the Bering Strait through tonight.
South to southwesterly small-craft winds continue today across
much of the Bering and Aleutians, while a swath of gale-force
winds expand in coverage across northern Bering this morning. The
strongest winds are forecast to stretch from the Gulf of Anadyr
to just north of the Pribilof Islands as the front tracks east
today. The front quickly weakens as it reaches the western Alaska
coast by tonight, but is still expected to bring a push of
southerly small-craft winds up Kuskokwim Bay and to the Kuskokwim
Delta coast this evening through early Monday morning. Light rain
pushing east across the Bering reaches the Pribilof Islands by
this afternoon while heavier rainfall reaches the Southwest coast
by this evening. Steady rain continues across much of Southwest
Alaska through Tuesday morning as a stream of moisture from the
North Pacific and a shortwave rounding the base of the trough
reinforces the front as it moves inland and dissipates.

The active pattern continues into midweek as the next front
enters the western Bering by Wednesday morning, bringing yet
another round of winds and rain across the Bering and Aleutians.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Wednesday, model divergence remains high. Both ECMWF and GFS
advertise a low entering the southwestern Bering Sea, however, the
EC shows a stronger low moving in, with stronger winds and a
precipitation core dragged in from the northern Pacific. The GFS
solution is more muted, with a weak low pressure system, loose
pressure gradients, favoring weaker winds and lighter
precipitation across the Western Aleutians. GFS and EC however are
more progressive, bringing the low into the northwestern Bering
by Thursday morning, with the Canadian solution lagging the low
still in the southwest Bering, over the Western Aleutians. By
Friday agreement improves, with increasing consensus that the low
moves into the eastern Bering Southwest mainland by Friday
afternoon. The low does not slow on its track across Nunivak
Island, Kuskokwim Delta, and over greater Bristol Bay by Saturday
morning. Widespread small craft advisory winds with smaller areas
of gales will dive across the Pribilof Islands late Friday
afternoon, and across the western Alaska Peninsula by Saturday
morning.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF
period in general. There will still be a chance for patchy fog or
low stratus to form as upper level cloud cover breaks up this
morning. Any fog that does develop near the terminal will be
short-lived, likely dissipating prior to 20Z.


&&


$$