585
FXAK68 PAFC 211327
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 AM AKDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

The center of a vertically stacked and weakening low continues to
crawl slowly east across the Gulf this morning, now located about
halfway between Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula. Widely
scattered showers are continuing to drift around the low,
affecting just about everywhere across Southcentral but the Copper
Basin. North of the low, some patchy dense fog has developed over
parts of the Mat-Su Valleys and western Kenai Peninsula as
moisture from the recent rain condenses out in spots near the
surface. Scattered shower activity will continue on and off as the
low progresses slowly towards Southeast, but shower coverage
should decrease in general by this afternoon as the low pulls away
to the east and as a transient shortwave ridge moves overhead.

Another low pressure and attendant frontal system will begin to
reach the western fringes of the outlook area by tonight as a
digging shortwave trough moving over Southwest approaches the
western Alaska Range. Steadier rainfall will overspread much of
Southcentral from west to east on Saturday as the trough and
front slide southeast into the Gulf. Steady rain will taper off to
showers by Saturday evening as the upper trough closes off into an
upper level low near the northern Gulf coast while a new surface
low forms over the western Gulf and moves east in tandem with the
upper level feature. Southerly gap winds through the typical
spots, including out of the Turnagain Arm and Copper River
Valley, will also pick up briefly out ahead of the low and front
on Saturday. Gusty winds will die down quickly by Saturday evening
as the low shifts into the Gulf and quickly cuts out the south-
north pressure gradient.

A much nicer day looks to be in store for Sunday as the low
shifting into the Gulf continues into the Panhandle. A renewed
high pressure ridge will begin to build in behind this system
across the western Mainland, setting up dry northerly flow across
Southcentral. Any lingering showers will clear out by the middle
of the day, with sunshine returning to many spots by Sunday
afternoon and evening. High temperatures will also bounce back
into the mid 60s at lower elevations as the afternoon sun returns.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

Radar imagery this morning shows the last of the scattered
showers over Bristol Bay and the northern Alaska Peninsula finally
dissipating as the low fully moves into the western Gulf.
However, the break in the rain will be short-lived as the first of
two bigger and wetter systems reaches the coast this morning and
brings widespread rainfall across Southwest Alaska through
Saturday morning.

A developing surface low currently centered just west of St.
Lawrence Island continues to strengthen as a Siberian trough digs
south and phases with upper level shortwave energy in the Bering.
The surface low continues in its eastward track today over St.
Lawrence Island and into Norton Sound by tonight. This will send a
robust frontal system from west to east across Southwest reaching
the coast this morning and spreading to the interior by late this
evening. Steady rain will continue through Saturday morning in
the interior before tapering to showers Saturday afternoon. For
Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta, shower chances will linger
through Saturday morning on the back side of the low as it moves
inland.

Southerly winds across the eastern Bering and up Kuskokwim Bay
increase through this morning with small-craft winds and gale-
force gusts expected through this afternoon. Winds switch to
northerly Friday night into Saturday as the low pulls into Western
Alaska and a ridge builds across the central and eastern Bering.
Northerly winds will be somewhat enhanced through the gaps and
passes of the AKPEN as the Siberian trough digs south across the
AKPEN and into the southwestern Gulf. There is not a lot of cold
air associated with this digging trough, therefore sustained winds
will not be any higher than small-craft.

The second of the two systems gathers in the western Bering by
Saturday afternoon as a shortwave and tropical airmass lifting out
of the North Pacific interacts with the next shortwave emerging
off Kamchatka. Showers out ahead of a developing surface low will
move over the southwestern Bering and the western Aleutian Islands
by Saturday morning. An unstable airmass above 850 mb will allow
for a slight chance (10 to 20%) for a few lightning strikes across
the marine zones of the western Aleutians Saturday morning into
Saturday afternoon. The surface low consolidates and strengthens
as it tracks northeast towards the Bering Strait Sunday into
Monday morning, sending another front into Southwest Alaska. Rain
overspreads the Kuskokwim Delta Coast by Sunday evening and pushes
inland across the rest of Southwest into Monday. Expect
widespread southerly to southwesterly small- craft winds with
gale- force gusts across the Bering for Sunday. Depending on the
rate of deepening/strengthening, sustained gales could be
introduced across the Bering (40 to 50% chance). Stay tuned for
forecast updates as the active pattern with multiple Bering Sea
systems unfolds.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The pattern appears to remain active through the long-term period
over much of Southern Alaska. A relatively strong low pressure
system over the northern Bering Sea will exit to the northeast
into the Western Alaska mainland, but push a front through
Southwest and potentially Southcentral Alaska early next week. By
Tuesday, largely zonal flow establishes over much of the Bering
Sea, allowing for relatively less impactful conditions in the
area.

By Wednesday morning, model solutions diverge, and while both
ECMWF and GFS advertise a low entering the southwestern Bering
Sea, the EC shows a stronger low moving in, bringing stronger
winds and precipitation core dragged in from the northern Pacific.
The GFS solution is much more muted, with a weak low pressure
system, loose pressure gradients, favoring weaker winds and
lighter precipitation across the Western Aleutians. Into Thursday,
agreement improves between model solutions, with fair agreement
that the low moves into the northwestern Bering, with both
solutions also bringing the low`s depth more in-line.

-CL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with intermittent rain showers and ceilings
near or above 5000 ft will prevail. Slight chance of very briefly
dropping to MVFR conditions during any locally heavier rain
showers. There is also a slight chance of a low stratus deck
moving in for a few hours this morning. A highly variable
southeast wind picking up out of the Turnagain Arm will persist
for much of the day, ranging from around 5 to 15 kts.

&&


$$