720
FXAK68 PAFC 241234
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 AM AKDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: Today through Sunday)...

Key Messages:

1) Flood Advisories remain in effect for multiple streams and
rivers in Mat-Su. These advisories will be evaluated later today,
but things are generally trending in the right direction as water
levels at many sites have plateaued or decreased overnight.

2) Gusty offshore winds continue through Saturday. Winds will be
strongest through mountain gaps and passes, as well as in the
waters of the western Gulf.

3) Rain for Kodiak on Saturday, but otherwise warm and dry for the
remainder of Southcentral Alaska.


Discussion:

The overall pattern remains on track, though shifts in the track
of various upper level shortwaves have led to some changes to the
forecast. For the overall weather pattern, north to northwest flow
will persist across Southcentral as a stout ridge develops over
the Bering Sea and a trough digs south into the eastern Gulf and
Southeast Alaska.

Drier air associated with this regime will lead to decreasing
cloud cover and, therefore, a return to more summer-like daytime
highs. Temperatures will soar back up into the upper 60s to mid
70s across lower elevations and interior valleys for both Saturday
afternoon and Sunday afternoon. The flip side of clearer skies,
however, is that overnight lows could actually be pretty chilly
for spots that stay clear and out of the winds, with some of the
coldest low spots likely to dip into the 40s or even upper 30s
early Saturday morning and again early Sunday morning.

While most of Southcentral will stay fairly dry over the next few
days, a notable exception will be Kodiak Island. Since yesterday,
models have trended further east with a robust upper low moving
along the Southwest coast. With this upper low now set to move
over Kodiak Island, rain chances have increased in that area from
Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. Kenai Peninsula
will likely see increasing cloud cover as this upper low moves
through, but rain will remain unlikely unless this upper low is
forecast to take a jog further east.

In addition to the upper low moving over Kodiak Island Saturday,
the other feature to watch will be an upper shortwave descending
from northern Alaska for the latter half of Sunday, which will
likely bring a return of cloudier skies and more unsettled
conditions. As such, make sure to enjoy our nicer weather while
you can!

-AS/KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

Rainfall and winds have mostly subsided over Southwest Alaska as
the previously advertised storm continues eastward and dissipates.
Some gap winds are still lingering, though most rainfall is now
limited to the eastern most parts of Southwest Alaska along the
Alaska Range. By Friday, expect mostly sunny skies for inland
areas as northerly flow takes over. This also means that warmer
temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 60s for these inland
areas.

Meanwhile, a ridge is setting up over the Bering. This ridge will
build into the weekend. The most active weather is expected to
occur around the periphery of the ridge (western Aleutians to the
Pribilofs and Bristol Bay/AKPen) as a plume of moisture moves
through. This will bring some rainfall and areas of small craft
winds. This ridge will also bring a return of low stratus and fog
for the Bering, Pribilofs, and the Aleutian Chain through the
weekend.

On Saturday, an upper level low drops southwards from Chukotka.
Recent model runs have shifted the track of the low
northward/eastward to now move over mainland Southwest. This low
will interact with the plume of moisture riding around the ridge
and bring another round of light rainfall for much of Southwest
Alaska Saturday. For the AKPen, this low may enhance northerly
winds and lead to heavier rainfall in areas of upsloping winds. As
the low moves through, winds in Bristol Bay and in gaps through
the AKPen will reach small-craft levels at times. By Saturday
evening, the low crosses the western Alaska Range and quickly moves
into the Gulf. Winds subside in Bristol Bay and rain tapers off
for southwest Saturday evening, leading to a clearer and dry
Sunday. For the AKPen and eastern Aleutians, small-craft winds and
rain likely persist through Sunday. Heaviest rainfall will be
where the plume of moisture sets up and where winds upslope.
Though the track of the moisture plume may still slightly move,
rain is most favorable between Nikolski and Cold Bay Sunday.

-PA

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

No major changes from the previous discussion. Looking at 500 mb,
the global models remain in good agreement that the start of the
long term (Monday) will be comprised of a trough digging over much
of Alaska and the Gulf, ridging from the North Pacific extending
over the Aleutians over the Bering, and troughing over the
Kamchatka coast and Western Aleutians. As we head into mid week,
the ridging translates eastward and slowly flattens as the pattern
over the Aleutians and Bering becomes increasingly more
progressive. The trough over much of Alaska and the Gulf will help
to return rain chances to Southcentral by Monday. A surface low
is still on track to form somewhere across the north-central Gulf
Tuesday morning, which would act to enhance precipitation for
coastal Southcentral and Kodiak Island. Due to the breakdown and
movement of the ridge, this will pave the way for storm systems to
move eastward across the Aleutian Chain as any surface ridging
retreats southward into the North Pacific. By Wednesday or so,
uncertainty grows as model agreement degrades considerably.
Temperatures are on track to stay below normal for late July for
all of the Southcentral and Southwest Alaska in part due to rain
chances returning, and near normal to above normal for the Bering
Sea.

-AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist, with no rain expected. Winds
shift north to northwesterly around mid-morning, then a period of
gusty winds (up to 20 to 30 kt) is expected in the afternoon and
evening as a wave moves through. Confidence is low regarding the
timing of these gustier winds; gusts will likely pick up between
about 22Z and 03Z, and could persist through as late as 12Z to
18Z.

&&


$$