116
FXAK68 PAFC 261349
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
549 AM AKDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The forecast remains on track with another day of gusty winds
expected through the Turnagain Arm, out of the Knik River Valley,
and up through much of the Copper River Basin. Gusty winds may
return on Friday, though overall it should be less than this
afternoon and this afternoon should be a little less than
yesterday. Showers are expected to gradually taper off for Susitna
Valley today as the trough departs the region but are expected to
linger along the coastal areas and higher elevations. There are
still minor differences in the timing of precipitation of winds as
the upper level trough appears to be moving a little faster than
originally expected. Thunderstorm chances will be lower today with
continued cloud cover to limit instability. Subsidence on the
backside of the departing trough will also help to keep a lid on
any storm development.

Further south, an upper low will lift over Kodiak Island and
become mostly stationary. Its front, will make very slow northward
movement, not reaching the Gulf coast until late Friday or early
Saturday. Rain will likely remain for Kodiak Island through much
of the short term forecast. Showery conditions and small craft
conditions are also forecast from the Shelikof Strait and the
Barren Islands. Across the Gulf, winds will be around 20 kts along
the front. A wave of precipitation may develop ahead of the front
as it lifts toward the northern Gulf, but winds and precipitation
chances overall diminish late Friday as the front dissipates
along the Gulf coast. Friday will thus see improved conditions
across the Gulf as well as improved conditions further inland of
Southcentral. A few showers may develop along the coast and higher
elevations, including the eastern slopes of the Talkeetna
mountains Friday afternoon.

The potential for precipitation chances across Southcentral
increases for this weekend, however, as an easterly wave moves
through Copper River Basin, there could be an isolated few
lightning strikes that could develop Saturday afternoon.
Precipitation chances then appear to spread into the Matanuska and
Susitna Valley and may stretch down into Anchorage and the
western Kenai Peninsula as a deformation band sets up. Details
will become more clear over the next few days.

BL/Rux


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday night)...

Weak low pressure south of Kodiak Island extends a broad trough
across the Alaska Peninsula into the central Bering Sea this
morning, with a weakening front producing light rainfall across
the northern and central portions of the peninsula. The Bering
Sea remains blanketed in stratus, with some pockets of fog,
despite light northerly flow. Meanwhile, a shortwave ridge has
led to clear skies for a substantial part of Southwest Alaska.

A potent shortwave trough tracks across the Alaska Range into the
Western Interior today, allowing a broad area of enhanced showers
and steadier rainfall to nudge into the northern portions of the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley and interior Kuskokwim Delta today. A band
of scattered showers also sets up across interior Bristol Bay to
the Western Capes. Between these features, expect drier conditions
to persist, with breaks of sun and temperatures reaching the mid
60s today. There is still some uncertainty with the track of the
easterly shortwave, but there is increased confidence that it
really only nudges in to the northern reaches of the area, where
it could drop a few tenths of an inch to around half an inch of
rain, particularly north of the Kuskokwim River. There is still
a low chance (around 25 percent) that locations along the river
see a prolonged period of moderate rainfall (more than just a
passing shower), and if that were to be the case, high
temperatures may not exceed 60 degrees, and the aforementioned
quantities of rain up to around half an inch could be realized.
However, this solution is not favored.

The Western Interior disturbance does dip south later tonight into
Friday, spreading increased moisture, cooler temperatures, and
scattered showers into the Kuskokwim Delta as it weakens. Out
west, high pressure builds into the western/central Bering Sea.
Conditions will gradually become more stable, leading to increased
potential for fog spreading back into the Bering Sea. On Saturday,
weak ridging builds over Southwest Alaska. The combination of
increasing temperatures and relatively clear skies with remnant
moisture from the easterly wave will allow for the development of
scattered to numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the Western Alaska Range and portions of Bristol Bay as far
south as Dillingham and possibly King Salmon. Meanwhile, a weak
low near Kamchatka will bring in much warmer air and gusty
southerly winds to the far western Bering Sea this weekend,
further increasing fog potential.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

On the Alaska Weather map, little overall changes on the previous
forecasts. A closed upper level low continues to meander around
the Central Gulf of Alaska through the forecast period. Over the
Bering, an upper ridge pushes into the Western Mainland to link up
with a ridge over the Northern parts of the state. Tuesday sees a
new upper level trough from the North Pacific slipping into the
Western Aleutians and Bering through midweek.The GFS and means
covers the entire region throughout the forecast, with the other
models diverge in the development over the Aleutians and Bering
from Monday on.

Locally moderate showers and scattered thunderstorm activity is
expected from the middle Alaska Range to the Eastern Interior
through Monday. Scattered showers continue over the Southern
Mainland through midweek. Coastal zones from the Alaska Peninsula
and Kodiak Island to the Canadian border are expected to see
locally moderate rain driven onshore by the offshore surface low,
fronts and troughs wheeling East to West. With the approaching
North Pacific upper trough, a surface low and front spreads
locally moderate rain and breezy conditions across the Western and
Central Aleutians and Bering Monday through Wednesday.

- Kutz

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Turnagain
Arm winds subside through the morning, with sustained winds of 10
knots and gusts up to 15 knots possible betwen 00Z and 06Z.

&&


$$