495
FXAK68 PAFC 230110
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 PM AKST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Much of inland Southcentral remains relatively quiet through the
weekend and into early next week while the Gulf continues to
remain active through the forecast period. Radar returns this
afternoon show scattered rain showers remaining over the northern
Gulf, with the current lull in precipitation across the Gulf
coast set to come to an end overnight tonight into Sunday as the
next system lifts north through the Gulf. The northern portion of
a split low will continue towards Prince William Sound while the
southern low moves towards the southern Kenai Peninsula, bringing
rain across much of the coast with snow at higher elevations
beginning tomorrow morning as both lows look to wash out as they
try to move inland through Monday morning. As the trough rotates
northwards inland Sunday into Monday, could see some snow showers
across the Copper River Basin as well as flurries across the Mat-
Su Valley and Anchorage. The overall pattern looks to continue
with another North Pacific low entering the Gulf by Tuesday,
though confidence quickly decreases by this time as models
continue to disagree on the track of the low.

-JH

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

A broad, yet weak, low pressure complex over the Bering Sea
continues to define the unsettled pattern for the Aleutians and
Southwest Alaska. Weak flow prevails from the surface to the upper
levels, with a couple weak lows drifting slowly across parts of
the outlook area. Chance for rain/snow showers across the Aleutian
Chain continue with weak features moving through the area. As
precipitation comes to an end for Southwest Alaska, skies will
begin to clear late Sunday morning. This may allow for slightly
colder temperatures to set in by Sunday night for Bristol Bay and
the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. High temperatures will drop from the
seasonably warm 20s to upper 30s back down to the 10s and 20s for
all but the AKPen by Monday afternoon. There is a signal for a
weak disturbance to form in the Central Bering, sweeping east
moving over the Pribilofs by Sunday morning. This would bring a
chance for snow showers, however accumulations would likely remain
trace or just a couple tenths of an inch. By Monday morning,
slight ridging over Southwest will keep that area dry, with a
chance for light showers across the Bering, driven by the complex
low that remains in place.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Wednesday through
Saturday.

On the Alaska Weather map, an upper level ridge extends from
Western Canada across Interior Alaska through the forecast period.
This ridge will be briefly flattened by shortwaves rotating over
the top of the ridge on Thursday, but will resume its strength and
extension afterwards. Elsewhere across the state, a broad upper
level low stretches from Russia across the Aleutians and Bering to
the North Pacific into the weekend. A couple of low centers in
the Bering and North Pacific will flex the pattern through
Saturday. The ECMWF / GFS and Canadian models handle features
quite well, with the exception of a Gulf of Alaska low on
Wednesday that the GFS drives further Southward than the other
models.

Some upper disturbances drive areas of rain, rain and snow or
snow over the open Bering through Saturday. In the East, a
decaying low brings widespread rain from the AKPEN across Kodiak
Island Wednesday, and extending over Prince William Sound and the
Southcentral coast with more moderate precipitation continuing
through Saturday. Some areas of snow will occur inland and over
higher elevations. This low will dissipates Thursday. A second
well developed North Pacific low spreads snow up to Bristol Bay
and Southwest Alaska, the Pribilofs and Northern Bering Thursday,
changing to locally moderate rain and gusty winds approaching gale
force from the Central Aleutians into the AKPEN on Friday. The
associated front spreads locally moderate rain across to the
Canadian border, with more snow inland and over higher elevations
through Saturday.

- Kutz

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist at
the terminal. There is a chance for light snow or flurries in the
vicinity Sunday afternoon, though the probability for snow over
the terminal is around 10 to 20 percent.

&&


$$