821
FXAK68 PAFC 210055
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 PM AKDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

A vertically stacked low continues to make slow but steady
eastward progress this afternoon, with the center situated on the
Alaska Peninsula. Ahead of this feature, broad southerly flow
continues to send a steady stream of Gulf moisture north into
Southcentral. Showers have spread into much of Southcentral, with
the only semi-dry spot being the Copper River Basin. At the
surface, a front has moved into the northern Gulf Coast and
continues to weaken. Any lingering strong winds offshore south of
the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound should diminish
tonight.

Overall, there is still not much change regarding the outlook
into the weekend. Maintained southerly upper level flow will
continue to bring moisture into the region as the low slowly moves
into the northern Gulf. As this occurs, shower activity will
continue for much of Southcentral into tomorrow. Steadiest
rainfall will continue to be along the northern Gulf Coast, and
the Copper River Basin will be the area least likely to get any
precipitation. A small break in the wet weather looks likely
tomorrow for much of Southcentral as the low moves east into the
Panhandle region. It does not exactly look like a clear and sunny
day on tap, but at least it should not be nearly as wet for most
of the day, especially towards the afternoon and evening hours.
Steady precipitation likely persists along the northern Gulf
Coast, with isolated shower activity expected for the rest of
Southcentral. The lowest chances of rain appears to be tomorrow
night as a brief shortwave ridge moves through.

The next system approaches from the west on Saturday as a front
moves in from Southwest and the AKPen. This will bring another
round of showers to the region, starting with Kodiak Island early
Saturday morning and spreading to the rest of Southcentral by
Saturday afternoon. Both the front and the associated trough move
through much faster compared to the current low. By Sunday
morning, the front will be into the Yukon with the trough well
into the North Pacific. A ridge appears to build in behind this
trough. For most of Southcentral, rain looks to taper off by
Sunday morning, with isolated showers possibly lingering at
higher elevations. Cloud coverage will also decrease, leading to
warmer temperatures compared to the previous days. A surface low
will strengthen in the Gulf Sunday morning and move southeast.
This will enhance northwest winds to small-craft force around
both sides of Kodiak Island.

-PA

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday evening)...

The stubborn low over Bristol Bay has begun its east-southeast
trek over the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) and beginning to emerge
into the western Gulf of Alaska. Showers will continue across the
Southwestern Mainland the rest of today as a weak shortwave moves
over the area from the Bering. Showers along the coast will begin
to wane by tonight to early Friday morning with showers decreasing
along the interior by late Friday morning.

The first of two bigger and wetter systems will gather in the
northern Bering Sea tonight. Upper-level energy will move east to
the Bering from Kamchatka. At the same time, a Siberian trough
will also dig southeast over the northern Bering tonight into
Friday. The interaction between these two features will help to
spawn a surface low around and just west of St. Lawrence Island
late tonight into early Friday. Guidance has trended towards the
NAM solution of a stronger and more northerly track with this
system. Although, the NAM continues to be the strong outlier.

There is high confidence that this system will move from St.
Lawrence Island into Norton Sound by Friday evening. Rain,
moderate at times, will spread from west to east across Southwest
beginning at the coast Friday morning and spreading to the
interior by Friday night. Steady rain continues along the interior
Saturday morning before tapering to showers Saturday afternoon.
Along the coast, showers are possible Saturday morning before
drying out in the afternoon. Wind-wise, expect southerly small-
craft winds with gale-force gusts up Kuskokwim Bay Friday morning
into Friday afternoon. Winds switch to northerly by Friday night
into Saturday as the low pulls into Western Alaska and a ridge
builds across the central and eastern Bering. Northerly winds will
be somewhat enhanced through the gaps and passes of the AKPEN as
the Siberian trough digs south across the AKPEN and into the
southwestern Gulf. There is not a lot of cold air associated with
this digging trough, therefore sustained winds will not be any
higher than small-craft.

The second of the two systems gathers in the western Bering
Saturday morning as upper-level shortwave energy and a tropical
airmass interact with an upper-level shortwave energy over
Kamchatka. The warm and moist tropical airmass moves into the
through Saturday. Showers will develop out ahead of a weak low
pressure system south of Shemya Saturday morning. The airmass
above 850mb will be unstable and a few lightning strikes across
the marine zones of the Western Aleutians will be possible
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. However, chances for
lightning to occur are somewhat on the low end of the spectrum (10
to 30% chance).

The weak low pressure in the North Pacific south of Shemya will
combine with weak low pressure off the coast of Kamchatka by
Saturday evening. The resultant low pressure will deepen and move
to between Eastern Russia and St. Lawrence Island by Sunday
afternoon. This system looks to be stronger than the one for
Friday/Saturday due to the stronger baroclinic zone between the
tropical airmass across much of the Bering and colder air just to
the north of the storm. Rain overspreads the Kuskokwim Delta Coast
by Sunday evening and pushes inland across the rest of Southwest
into Monday. There is average to above average confidence that
this system will track from around the Gulf of Anadyr Sunday
afternoon to around the Bering Strait by Monday morning. Expect
widespread southerly to southwesterly small-craft winds with gale-
force gusts across the Bering for Sunday. Depending on the rate of
deepening/strengthening, sustained gales could be introduced
across the Bering (40 to 50% chance). Stay tuned for forecast
updates as the active pattern with multiple Bering Sea systems
unfolds.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The pattern appears to remain active through the long-term period
over much of Southern Alaska. A relatively strong low pressure
system over the northern Bering Sea will exit to the northeast
into the Western Alaska mainland, but push a front through
Southwest and potentially Southcentral Alaska early next week. By
Tuesday, largely zonal flow establishes over much of the Bering
Sea, allowing for relatively less impactful conditions in the
area.

By Wednesday morning, model solutions diverge, and while both
ECMWF and GFS advertise a low entering the southwestern Bering
Sea, the EC shows a stronger low moving in, bringing stronger
winds and precipitation core dragged in from the northern Pacific.
The GFS solution is much more muted, with a weak low pressure
system, loose pressure gradients, favoring weaker winds and
lighter precipitation across the Western Aleutians. Into Thursday,
agreement improves between model solutions, with fair agreement
that the low moves into the northwestern Bering, with both
solutions also bringing the low`s depth more in-line.

-CL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Visibility and ceilings are anticipated to remain
predominantly VFR through the period. There is a chance ceilings
may drop briefly to MVFR, or even IFR, during this period, but
visibility should stay VFR. Scattered rain showers are expected to
wane overnight with any ceilings below 5000 ft increasing after
18-20Z Friday.


&&


$$