995
FXAK68 PAFC 121252
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 AM AKST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Dry conditions will continue across much of Southcentral over the
next few days. Cloud cover will begin creeping in by Thursday
evening as the high pressure ridge finally begins breaking down.
A north Pacific low and an Arctic trough will move in and squeeze
the high out of Alaska by this evening. A col will develop over
Southcentral in response and will remain until Thursday night.
This, combined with a dry air mass means that continued calm and
dry conditions will still prevail in the mainland through
Thursday. The North Pacific low will continue tracking northwards,
approaching the north Gulf coast by very (emphasis on the `very`)
early Friday morning. Chances are good for precipitation to move
in along the coast, with highest chances from Prince William Sound
east to Cordova, including Valdez and Thompson Pass. There is a
very slight chance for precipitation to spill into the western
Kenai and Anchorage and moderate chances for the Mat-Su Valleys.
Wind speeds in the coasts will increase as well with this low, and
a barrier jet could form in the coast near Cordova. This
potential barrier jet will be gale force in strength and will
dissipate Friday afternoon when the surface low moves inland and
dissipates.


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

Conditions continue to improve through today, with much weaker
winds and drier conditions expected for Thursday and Friday. For
Southwest Alaska and the Eastern Aleutian Islands/Bering Sea,
a cooling trend begins tonight, with air temperatures dropping as
low as the single-digit negatives as we get closer to the weekend.
This will bring wind chills as low as the negative teens and
twenties for Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta, as well
as areas of heavy freezing spray for marine areas along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast and in the northern Bering Sea. For the
Western and Central Bering Sea and Aleutians, periods of small
craft winds and light precipitation as weak storms move through
today and Thursday. By Friday, winds to gale force and steadier
rain/snow mix as a front pushes in from the west.

-Chen

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Saturday through Tuesday...

An active weather pattern covers the Alaska Weather map through
the forecast period. An upper level elongated trough stretches
from the Russian Far East across the Aleutians. A second upper
trough extends across Northern Alaska moving into the Arctic. A
third trough moves over the Eastern North Pacific through Tuesday.
An upper level ridge moves across from the Aleutians into
Southeastern Alaska and over Southcentral Alaska by Tuesday.
Several shortwaves rotate through the pattern, keeping areas of
active weather across the Southern half of the state. A
deterministic blend of ECMWF/GFS and Canadian models have a firm
hold on the larger scale features, with most of the uncertainty
with the smaller active weather producers.

A well developed surface low to the South of the Alaska Peninsula
extends a front Northward through Sunday. This system spreads
snow over Southwest Alaska and areas of moderate rains from the
AKPEN and Kodiak Island across Southcentral coastal zones. Areas
of snow over higher elevations inland are expected. A second front
brings another round of precipitation, with locally heavy rains
from the Southern Kenai Peninsula to Prince William Sound through
Tuesday. Snow will extend across many inland Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska locations. Areas of moderate rain or snow will
spread over the Central and Eastern Aleutians ahead of an
approaching North Pacific low through the period.

- KZ

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to persist.

&&


$$