159
FXAK68 PAFC 051356
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
556 AM AKDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Overall the weather across the region today will be similar to
that observed yesterday. A shortwave is currently moving through
Southcentral this morning, which will bring another round of rain
to the downsloped areas while enhancing areas that were receiving
upsloping precipitation with the south to southwest flow aloft.
This evening will be a bit of a pattern change aloft as the
southernmost shortwave from the broad trough over the Bering lifts
into Southcentral, filtering in some colder air aloft. While the
thermodynamic profile is changing a bit, the main change to the
sensible weather for Monday will just be cooler temperatures along
with the rain. As the trough progresses east, a surface low will
develop south of the Kenai Peninsula, which will weaken winds for
inland areas by Monday afternoon. Kodiak and Whittier will then
have some gusty westerly winds lasting through Tuesday afternoon.
Ridging will be the predominant weather for Tuesday and Wednesday,
with clearer skies and above normal temperatures.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

The large elongated trough across the Bering Sea remains this
morning as numerous shortwaves continue to lift northward from the
North Pacific, across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) and into
Southwest Alaska. Rain will continue through Monday morning across
the AKPEN and Southwest Alaska while eventually tapering off from
west to east as the upper-level energy moves into the Gulf
through Monday. Colder air, via western flow, will also filter in
from the Bering Sea across the Eastern Aleutians, AKPEN, and
Southwest Alaska as the low near the northern Kamchatka Peninsula
continues to weaken in place. In tandem with the movement of the
colder air, showers along the Central Aleutians this morning will
work eastward to the Eastern Aleutians by Sunday morning, and
eventually to the AKPEN by Sunday afternoon and evening.

Attention then quickly turns back to the western Bering and
Western Aleutians for Sunday as the next big weather-maker takes
shape. A ridge moves eastward across the Bering as a trough across
the Sea of Okhotsk and Kamchatka digs into the North Pacific.
This will help draw ample amounts of warm air and moisture
northward from the tropical Pacific into the Bering. Initially,
light rain will develop across the Western Aleutians Sunday
morning as the warm front of the Kamchatka/Sea of Okhotsk low
moves overhead. The warm front continues eastward to the Pribilof
Islands and Eastern Aleutians by Monday morning. At the same time,
the synoptic pattern amplifies as the Kamchatka trough digs and
elongates farther into the North Pacific and the surface low
deepens while it interacts with cold air across Siberia. Rain
becomes moderate to heavy at times across the Western Aleutians
beginning Monday afternoon as a strong shortwave rounds the base
of the digging Kamchatka trough. This strong shortwave will induce
cyclogenesis in the North Pacific on Monday which will drive the
rain enhancement.

The newly developed North Pacific low moves north into the
western Bering Monday evening as it continues to deepen. Moderate
to heavy rain spreads east to the Central Aleutians and Pribilof
Islands Tuesday as the western Bering low continues northward and
interacts with the low near the Kamchatka coast. Rain moves into
mainland Southwest Alaska also beginning on Tuesday with most of
the area seeing light to moderate rain at times. The Kuskokwim
Delta and Kuskokwim Delta Coast could see moderate to heavy rain
Tuesday afternoon and evening with the main moisture axis
overhead. The moisture axis then looks to push further eastward
for Wednesday with moderate to heavy rain reaching the Eastern
Aleutians, the southern AKPEN, Bristol Bay, and the Kuskokwim
Valley with warm air continuing to advect across the area. Colder
air also works from west to east behind the cold front of the
northward advancing Bering low starting across the Western
Aleutians Monday evening and advancing to the Eastern Aleutians to
around Nikolski by Wednesday morning with instability driven
showers continuing across the Western Aleutians by then.

In addition to the plethora of warm air and moisture with this
setup, strong winds will be another chapter to this Bering storm
story, as will the possibility of coastal flooding across the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast (more on that below). A corridor of
southerly to southwesterly sustained gale-force to storm-force
winds across the Western Aleutians Monday will move northeastward
to the Central Aleutians Monday night and to coastal waters of the
of the Eastern Aleutians and AKPEN for Tuesday.

The push of strong southerly winds also makes it to the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast by Tuesday and continues into Wednesday morning. With
the sustained fetch of strong southerly winds into the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast, water levels look to rise for areas along the coast
with two peaks occurring during high tide cycles Tuesday morning
and Tuesday night. To address this concern, a Coastal Flood Watch
has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island
from Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning. Stay tuned
to forecast updates as details are ironed out further with this
next incoming storm system.

&&



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

High pressure will dominate south central Alaska through the end
of the work week. By next weekend, a weakening front stretching
across the western half of the state, will help develop low
pressure that will bring rains back into the region. While still a
week out, precipitation type will be something to watch.
Termination Dust should continue it`s descent down the mountains.
At this time, most of lower elevation should remain rain.
Temperatures are definitely cooling, so this aspect will need a
keen eye to remain on it.

Out west... low pressure in the western Bering will sling a front
across the Aleutians through Friday. This weather system will have
a deep tap of moisture (roughly 40N) and should bring abundant
precipitation to the Aleutians and west coast into the weekend.
The deep southerly flow will rebound temperatures. Upper level
high pressure over the state will help to deflect any approaching
western Pacific system from impacting the coast. Friday and into
the weekend, in what looks like a rinse and repeat of the current
weather system, another WNPac low will ride the ridge north into
the western Bering. Another front is expected to drive east across
the Aleutian Chain and AKPen into Sunday. Continued unseasonably
warm and wet weather will continue through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with light northwesterly winds persist
through late this evening. Light rain will continue to be
intermittent and ceilings may at times drop below 5000 ft. Low-
level wind shear will remain an issue as southeasterly winds
continue aloft. Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds then have the
potential to return to the terminal at the surface late this
evening, beyond about 06Z. Winds may gust intermittently 20-25 kt.
Winds become light southerly late Monday morning.

Quesada

&&


$$